Member Info for shandypants2

sorry I think I've mis-read the RNS. It is an option to buy at a set price at a point in the future, but unlike a warrant the company doesn't receive the money - the new shares have already been issued

It's an option not a warrant so no payment is required. Only proviso is that share price is above 3p or 4p on specified dates. Then shares are given for free as a 'reward'.

Noticed this is in the shops now. Ingredients makes no mention of any Opti derived product and sugar reduction (still 37%!!)appears to have been achieved using skimmed milk solids.
Wasn't Cadbury's rumoured to be in discussions with Opti a year or so ago??

FinnCap has a price target now of £3.50 BTW and an upfront payment of £100m once a US partner signs up. Teva appeal only relates to patent from c2029 - currently patent runs to 2035 so even if lost we still have 10 years. Expect £2 next week

a potential HNS link up is huge but will take time.

£2m cash rise must be dwindling as losing c£200k a month as of last results. No news on sales so suspect they are slow.

Really need some decent PR - great product but so little exposure

FinnCap now has price target of £3.50 and says upfront milestone payment from US partner could be as much as £100m!

there has been strong deramping of this stock for a few weeks now - valuation concerns and cash questions etc have sowed a seed in some people's head.
Last 2 RNSs were about as good as they can possibly be so just sit tight.
In my opinion the warrant situation and Venn sales haven't helped. Yes the shares have been absorbed quite quickly but they have also been flipped so there seems to be quite an overhang.
New lab space available in just over 1 month so hopefully new contracts are being lined up. As GB said we are running to catch up. That's a great position to be in.
Sit tight

well done to all long term holders. Wait for a tie up with an US partner and this will go above £2. Full FDA approval means this can be sold DTC too so the market is massive

IMHO Blackwoods is struggling to create a niche in the crowded Gin market. It's a great gin, but then Betamax was better than VHS and we all know what happened there.

To be a success a product needs to show year on year improvement and this is factored into the share price - once a growth stock stops growing the market can be ruthless - I hold a retail company that has just made £1.5m profit and is valued at £13m and is growing by 20% a year.

The gin market is still growing - see below. If Blackwoods is not that's a massive red flag to me. Red Leg is a great product and had great coverage but the rum market is smaller so it is important that Distil have a decent piece of other markets. It currently does not.

In the year ending 31 March 2018, UK gin sales rose by 28% in volume and by 33% in value to reach £1.5 billion, meaning that sales have more than doubled in value in five years (£696m y/e March 2013).

opti has £500k of revenues and is valued at c£70m and was over £100m this time last year.

For a company growing so quickly and unable to keep up with demand it is difficult to put a standard valuation on it at this early stage. You even believe in it or you don't.

IMHO Brexit and a potential recession may not have a significant impact on IDP but it is clearly weighing on the current share price.

Most of our revenue (90%) is UK based and manufacturing is also in the UK so no major issues with falling GBP etc.
Retailers have been hit and Boots recently announced the closer of 200 stores. However, they have 2,500 and IDP is only in 1,305 so it would appear coverage for ST will be unaffected.
If we go into recession then things like car sales, foreign holidays (also impacted by falling GBP) and eating out, for example, will be hit. But conversely sometimes sales in 'feel good' products do well - maybe skinny tan will benefit if there are less foreign holidays. As an example gin sales in pubs will decline but the chances are more people will drink at home etc. Perhaps Roots could be hit slightly as this is premium priced, but that only accounts for c10% of current revenue.

The other elephant in the room is HC's missed promises and his share sales. Unfortunately people have long memories so this share is not currently valued purely on fundamentals.
It was great that YE19 profits hit targets but this was what the company said they would deliver so should they be rewarded for hitting their own numbers? Having said that if they can continue to demonstrate good numbers then eventually the tide will turn - we are on a forward P/E of c5.5 based on YE 2020 profit of £2.4m.

Tuesday 17th Sept 2019 is a date for your diary. This is when IDP announce year end results and accompanying this should be both a trading update and also a forward looking statement. If July and Aug has gone well (DTC appears to have been going great guns recently and we had zero Boots sales this time last year) then YE2020 targets may be adjusted up slightly.
Similarly news on increased Prolong rollout would benefit the share price as this has the potential to increase profits substantially.

I think DaveT you need to calm down and read the last few RNS's - sales are down and profits have flatlined - that's a fact.

On a P/E of over 30 this is not oversold.

Blackwoods has not performed well - fact (read the year end RNS). It is not in my local Tesco's (one large one medium) nor my local Asda. I believe Morrisons are it's biggest stockist. As I said I have seen it at Wetherspoons but at no other pub - chain or independent!! And even if it is in every shop and pub in the country based on declining revenues it appears people aren't buying it!!

Essentially Distil is a one brand company as the majority of its revenue and profit come from 1 product. How is the company going to grow using £160k profits??

why is this oversold? based on pure financials e.g P/E it is still overpriced and revenues are not growing.

Distil is unfortunately a 1 brand company (Red Leg) and for example Blackwood has failed to make a mark in the albeit crowded but large gin market. Saw it in a Wetherspoons recently - first time I've seen it anywhere for ages.

It is profitable (just) and Red Leg is great so it is not all doom and gloom but unless the next trading update is very positive this may have further to fall

it was brought over from Australia to the UK a couple of years ago so assume most of the costs are GBP

$50m divi ($25m and $25 special divi) paid in 2019 - 1/3 in June/July, 2/3s after AGM so cSept.

Payment for June/July was about 7p per share.

There is also a share buyback which should boost share price a little - share in circulation reduced from 229m to 228m in recent days

the last 2 RNS have been really strong - c900% growth and additional large contracts with leading players.

This shows that the technology they have is unique and there is a strong demand for it. Sub 2p is just madness.

With extra lab space and Beta testing now being completed this really opens up more opportunities for SKIN. In Gerry we trust!!!

with the current market cap of £13m ST is priced at not much over £10m. This could prompt a company to make a cheeky low ball offer - even £15m is a near 50% mark up on the current price - why pay more if you can avoid it?

Not saying I would sell at this price but I think HC may be tempted as he gains more than anyone (if he even tries to sell 1 share out of his 27% he will be slaughtered and he knows that)!! As an aside be interesting to see his salary this year now that he is not CEO. We were told it would be reduced 'considerably'.

Agree with ST in Tesco - surely just a matter of time. No need for further Boots expansion IMHO as we are already in over 1/2 and many of the remaining ones are really small. We are in all the big ones and the medium sized ones. Wonder Serum has been a great success and is regularly sold out at Boots. Expanding across all retailers next year is surely a given - it is now DTC in US which should help DTC revenue a bit.

ST overseas expansion is the big one for me - Oz and US in particular - both DTC only as previous retail partner deals have ceased. As HC is Oz based surely a decent partner in Australia and maybe New Zealand can be found - double up with C+L perhaps.

Whilst waiting for HC to update on progress (struggling to see how ST and Roots in 227 Asda branches isn't price sensitive info) this share is flatlining/slowly falling.

Was just thinking at such low prices would a competitor consider a low offer for ST.

With company valued at £13m an offer of say £15m for just ST would be difficult to turndown. Or maybe £20m including Roots and C+L etc.

As HC owns 27% of the company he would obviously be the greatest beneficiary.

A slimmed down company would only be worth say £2 to £3m (or maybe 1/2 if just Life Science) and he could give us a special dividend of £1 - so he would get almost £4m himself.
He could then focus on Life Sciences and would have enough working capital to get Prolong moving and fund additional products.

Just a thought

this share is a bit unloved. Good RNS but merely said what we've already known - profits will be ahead of previous guidance. On a 2020 P/E this is very undervalued

i think last few days there has been a bit of a tree shake. ADVFN has posted some old research that has since been disproved and FDA approval process has been questioned.

I don't think FDA approval is in question - merely the level of approval i.e. will it be limited to specific conditions.

Have taken advantage this morning and topped up yet again!

In the short term this stock is a no brainer for me - we could get a 50% plus increase in a little more than 1 week.