Member Info for shakeypremis

There was no need for that language was there. I am entitled to my opinion on gaps and I absolutely hate them. I never said it would definitely go down either. It's just something to be aware of.

That was a strong finish. I am very wary of gaps but as pointed out they don't all get closed, let's hope this one doesn't too. I believe the closing candlestick on the chart today indicates strength so let's hope it is upwards from here!

I don't doubt it Georgey, my only fear is a low-ball takeover conspiracy lol.

They aren't necessarily over target yet. While the flow rates add up to and exceed the targeted total flow rates the wells producing the gas at that rate need to flow for long enough to fulfill a 5 year contract. Edison seem to think that SDX will require more wells than are currently booked to be drilled to fulfill the contract. Off the top of my head I believe this to be the case, happy to be corrected though! At the moment it seems SDX could find 500m barrels of oil net and the share price would still stay stagnant.

Going by previous price action after positive news on Morocco wells the price usually does decline on the day or thereafter and combined with that ominous gap I think you might get a better entry price than what is currently on offer J4ms.

Sadly you are incorrect. About 1 in 4 gaps DON'T get filled. I think the figure widely touted is circa 80% of gaps get filled. It's bloody annoying and I see it happen constantly.

Mind the gap gents. March 16th-17th, 47.77p-48.4p. Ideally this will close in the next few days else if it moves up significantly it will be soul destroying for us as it'll probably come back down again to close the gap at a later date.

Quite possibly. But it is merely speculation at this stage. I do strongly believe something dodgy is going on with the share price though.

I don't think it is referring to the condensate, they would just call it that if they were talking about it. It must be the 'working hydrocarbon system' that SDX/IPR discovered last year. Why exactly this constitutes news now though I don't know. Just a rehash of some already known information. Although, IPR calling it an oil discovery rather than a 'working hydrocarbon system' is encouraging. I reckon more is known about this oil in SD than is being let on publicly at least.

How will I find you there? Maybe wear a badge with TBTT on it? lol

It's gonna come back down again, TSX is already dropping.

Is Shakey's Gap like a considerably less exciting and dangerous (physically at least, not necessarily financially) version of Rourke's Drift?

Tiger, I might come along, I work in London. It'd be good to put a face to your (screen)name.

Yes indeed, that gap from last September is now gone. But... we now have another one from today after the gap up. https://ibb.co/fqstLH I expect this one will close fairly quickly though as this share loves to go down!

Yes the share price is way undervalued, not sure what it's going to take to get it going and given all the other good news we've had that hasn't shifted it, this Rabul-5 news certainly wasn't going to be enough.

Northern Magic the problem with Rabul at the moment is we don't know how much oil is there and given the decent flow rates we don't know how long they produce for. Secondly, while the flow rates are decent, SDX net only circa 20% of those rates due to large state cut and SDX's working interest. From the current Rabul flow rates and a guesstimate from Rabul-5 a reasonable guess for the total net flow rates to SDX from Rabul-1, 2 and 5 is about 600bopd. That would be a nice upgrade to SDXs current net annual production but it's not going to set the share price on fire.

Good to hear PW say he thinks the company should be valued about 2.25-2.5 times the current share price. Also noted in the interview that SDX's net bopd figure from Rabul-5 might be around the 300 bopd mark which is nice when you consider the other two are doing about 280 bopd between them. So could be 600+ bopd from all three wells and there's another well to come. They won't produce for that long but the cost of production is so low the payback generated is still good and obviously worth doing.

Yes Ignalls have been selling but there has also been a LOT of buying. MEA, the ex-fund manager and his wife, etc. If they've only sold 5.5 million or so those would have all been gobbled up by the above easily. I can't prove it but I don't think large holders selling out is the sole reason for the weakness here.

Urraca, I agree something dodgy is happening behind the scenes here. Remember the purchases by that famous ex-hedge-fund manager and his wife. They weren't TR-1 for along time until after the purchases. Technically, this flirted with breaking out after the Rabul-5 news hit but bounced off the underside of a rising channel and seems to have been now sadly brought back in to the descending channel. https://ibb.co/b4uR2x

Thanks Aim, is that all the info there is as far as you are aware? That 5th drill is not on the December presentation so it's something they've decided on - or decided to talk about at least - since December. Contingent - "occurring or existing only if (certain circumstances) are the case; dependent on." So it might just be something they will do in case of failure or perhaps even success on one of the four other drills. Or it might be something more. I will try to get something out of the company about it.