Member Info for ShadowLess

Aubery, Agree with fees, wages .................

"Big % uplift from current SP." Agreed, only if I had the balls to buy more haha!!

Not sure why I am so chirpy, I will be losing a fair chunk of money for anything below 0.0036pps, maybe because the nightmare is ending!!!

opps not £25,074,000m, haha I wish £25m

From Sale: $35m = £29m (exchange rate of 0.82)
In Bank: £5m (Money in the bank already)
Total Cash = £34m in the bank (this equates to 0,024pps)

0.018pps distributed to all shareholders = £25,074,000m

This leaves £9m to invest (or 0.006pps), what could they invest in with £9m?

For me, the deal has to be taken now

MM

Not sure how much credence you give to the author but its an opinion

Tariq Fahad "pegged the total value of the mines at US$893 million, or about 12 per cent of the company’s net asset value"

https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/kinross-finds-buyer-for-kupol-mine-complex-in-what-analyst-calls-messy-exit-from-russia

Blumagnet

Think the reference is to this

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rollforward.asp#:~:text=What%20Is%20Roll%20Forward%3F,the%20then%2Dcurrent%20market%20price.

Hello BB69

Have to go back to my dodgy spreadsheet, but to be honest according to my spreadsheet I should be a billionaire by now!! I guess that is one of the problems many including myself, if I are honest, I never really had a grasp of the numbers, it’s the details that matter!!

Maybe there was enough data (or lack of it) to work out the numbers didn't stack up, Redlee highlighted this in many of his posts (have to say many of my calculations are loosely based on Redlees and others). Fag packet calculations, I should say rollie packet calculations (as I am skint now from the losses on AMC) it doesn’t add much to the NPV maybe $50 to $70m but will have a look.

Cherryburn

In some respect what you said was true......

the other way to look at it, the resource became less attractive when the details come to light. IMO at some point, the BOD had a good idea that the numbers were not as attractive as first thought but needed quantitative data to validate this. The BOD also looked at all options to maximise value, Open vs Closed; TS vs FFS……… even found an extra copper stream to add to the total.

Did they get to a point of no return? is it a case of let's get as much as we can? The BOD did look at diversifying away from Russia with the NRR deal.

A brief comparison to the PFS 2019
TS = NPV(10%) : $614.5* | IIR: 29.3% | Total Cap Cost: $1064.7m
FFS = NPV(10%) : $987.4* | IIR: 34.7% | Total Cap Cost: $ 1190.2m
Latest = NPV(10%) : $333 | IIR: 15.6% | Total Cap Cost: $ 1920.0m

*Bear in mind they used US$ 8.00 per pound nickel, and not including copper stream.

$105m is 31% of NPV, this is comparable to the Kinross deal.

Lucando
I think the BOD was right to present the offer to shareholders and shareholders voted accordingly, shame we didn’t have the extra information of the TEO to make an informed decision.

My daughter's birthday week so will be away, shame as it would have been nice to meet a few people here and attach a face to them. Still have my eyes on you CBS haha.........

You know the saying 'misery loves company'!!

I would be right behind you TDT with my spoon!!!

I guess what I was trying to say is if any deal negotiated requires a staged payment plan longer than 6 months, to continue on AIM for the duration of the payment plan they will need to invest in 'something'!! otherwise, they will be delisted, which is a situation shareholders do not want to be in.

Thanks, erazzel

trading such shares are more problematic I assume.

Hello Sasa and anyone else for that matter

I guess one of the reasons for AMC Mark 2 with new assets is to keep its listing on AIM? A cash shell is not possible if AMC wants to remain listed?

If one believes that an upfront payment is a negotiable possibility then all the money should go to the shareholders.

If on the other hand some form of staggered payment is required, and if it is stretched out to say 1,2... 4 years what happens to me as a shareholder if AMC has no asset, becomes a cash shell and is delisted on AIM? what happens to my dividends then?

Having difficulty today getting my thoughts together, so if it does not make sense ignore it!!

Thanks for the input guys, has made my decision even harder to make,

I was convinced that the yes vote was the way to go, but less so now!! Need to decide soon

If the deal doesn’t go through, then the BOD need to prioritise the following ;

1- Seek a better deal with better payment plans, if at all possible. this includes a plan that will appease PIs
2- If not completed, finish the TEO
3- Should continue with the Mine plan which needs to be submitted in June 2023

I assume this is the bare minimum until 2023. The last two are vital in keeping the license, we have money in the bank to get to 2023?

Does any of the above increase the Market Value?

If the war didn't happen, we didn't get an offer and we continued as planned the following tasks would have been planned but are not an option currently.

1- Western BFS is irrelevant for the time being
2- Getting Instituauional investors on board now would be impossible
3- evidence of funding for the road etc.......

The Countermeasure is already in place but is not a concern to AMC at present time.

" the legislative commission of the Russian government approved a set of legislative measures that could eventually lead to the nationalisation of foreign companies that leave Russia or suspend their business operations."

The above countermeasure in action

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61463874

It would be interesting to see if the suspension is due to the sale of their Russia asset and whether it is under similar payment terms to AMC!

Geng

I assume that value will go down as some of that money will go to PIs as a 'Special div! unless the asset they buy generates some readies!!

MD, gotcha.

Lowband " shouldn’t Robin Young be putting it forward..... "

but he has via an RNS:

"The Board and I recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the sale at the General Meeting that will be held on 25 May 2022, as the total consideration represents a significant premium to shareholders compared to the current market capitalisation of the Company. Additionally, in order to move Kun-Manie into a development and production phase, significant further investment is required to be made, including significant expenditure on infrastructure and access roads and there is no guarantee that Amur will be able to source and execute financing agreements to meet this required spend given the current volatile market. This also complicated the execution of this transaction. "

RY is hiding as always and refusing to let investors see the TEO.

MD, fair comment

Just a correction, if your reference to 'minesite based on a 2012 Jorc estimate' is referring to the FMV analysis, it was based on the 30 June 2021 Kun-Manie JORC resource estimate.

"There seems no point in wishing physical harm to people that should stop." agreed.

PS: sorry people for the last part, getting all emotional, the money invested in AMC was for them.. to be honest, I and they have more than enough in life so ignore the self-indulgent rubbish!!!

Not worth much but

In my opinion, what is on the table is the best deal they can get.

Voting no and hoping for a better monetary deal is not going to happen in my opinion, at best; better payment terms that do not stretch out for 15 years. Look at Kinross and see how their payment structure is set out.

AMC seem to be one of the few companies who are selling an asset in Russia during the conflict, therefore the payment plan which they have devised is their best guess at a plan that will be approved by the Russian Gov. The argument, 'to wait and see' what other company strategies other companies are taking is sound.

That being said

I believe Russia is changing the rules regularly to counter western sanctions set upon them, and no one is sure how far they will go, this is clearly evident with Order 81 which has recently been introduced also few other financial orgs warning of changes affecting business dealings in Russia. Therefore, for AMC to sit tight and wait (which I was advocating a few months back), where it looks like the war will continue for a long period of time, seems too risky now. They have a deal which if you believe in the FMV analysis seems fair, to mitigate the risk of losing it all. The uncertainty is the risk which rightly so the BOD have tried to mitigate that risk with the proposed offer.

Additionally

Some have commented on the RNS stating 'personal guarantee' I see this as a good thing, it also highlights the risk of the rules changing in Russia that may void the initial transaction.

The RNS clearly states the risk of financing the project if the deal is not done, Yes this is a normal statement to make, but the BOD has made it a clear statement in the RNS and we should take heed of that.

Regarding voting ‘no’ so that the BOD lose and gain nothing, just NO.

Whether it makes any difference,
In my 40s so have time left I hope, a young family, which I hope will have all the opportunities that my parents couldn’t afford to give me (but they gave me the most important thing and it was their time and attention), and be greater than what I have ever become.