Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Neil777
To clarify, if not known already,
it is expected that, among other things, the approval of Decree 81 and consent from the FASR be completed within 90 days of the signing of the SPA which was in August. Worth noting that the approval and consent are obtained by the buyer (Bering Metals LLC).
Although there was no explicit statement referring to when the funds will be deposited to AMC, if we assume the said timeframe includes money being transferred to AMC , AMC will then pay a special dividend of 1.8 pence within 90 days of receipt of the cash.
Therefore, we could be looking at the div being paid to us shareholders in Jan 2023.
As maestro1 has said, once the money is AMC bank, it has been derisked, until then, anything can happen!!
"RNS Number : 1126V
Amur Minerals Corporation
05 August 2022"
nibble = nimble haha
At the time of writing, I was nibbling on a chocolate bar!!
Hello Henners007
Not sure if I totally agree with "Mr Market is saying to us quite clearly the payment WILL NOT ....", if this was the case I would expect the share price to be lower..., maybe??
As an investor, can I consider myself as the market?? admittedly I do only own 0.0000000000000001% of AMC!!! my personal outlook on this is and may explain why the share price is where it is ...
1- The continuation of the war adds uncertainty; there is still a chance that the deal will not be approved even though RY is confident that it will. I haven't heard of a similar deal in Russia not being approved !!
2- Timescales mentioned, as TDT has highlighted this, that we could be looking at Jan 2023 for div payment, in the meantime, savvy investors may see better investments that will payout sooner. I am certainly not one of them, just not nibble enough, therefore adding small amounts in AMC, and bringing my average down is more appealing. In addition, the timescale proposed still gives enough time for Putin to change the rules !! ( I think there is a common theme !!)
3- Trust in the BOD, to be able to bring the bacon home......
Early mentioned that the share price may drift lower without news, I would add, I think it will start to raise again closer we get to 1st Nov in anticipation of news, MM will play their games if you believe in those things, (caveat being Putin and the West don't do anything silly!!)
I doubt there will be any news, if there were I would expect the share price to react accordingly—past experience of a leaky ship.
up = approval of the sale by the relevant people / RTO
down = approval denied
bouncing in the range/may even slowly drift below 1!!!! = no news
An observation from the video posted by Trojan, thanks, by the way, RY made a point to indicate the share price is 1.3 while discussing the dividend of 1.8, that was a clear sign for me to add more so I foolishly did!!! someone shoot me!!!!
Rover62 makes sense.
Thanks for the honest response guys
Thanks, Sasa
Yes, the risk that Putin will just pull the plug on the deal still weighs heavily on my decision not to plough my savings in here. Good Luck
TDT, deluded as I am, I am interested to see what else they may have to offer, hoping the BoD wants to redeem themselves, and add value to shareholders who are remaining and still alive!! Actually, maybe, I too, have been here too long!!! Good Luck to you TDT... I think you and I need it!!
MW, understandable, GL
Hello Sasa43 and Rover62
Rather surprised that you have sold out now, is there doubts about the deal being approved? doubts about the timescale for the deal to go through? is it because you do not think RY will distribute the dividend as he says he will? I guess selling now takes the risk out of the equation.
I assume the other opportunities risk vs reward is better than a 'guaranteed '1.8p div within let's say worst case 5 months (about 20% increase from current share price) plus any residual value once the div is taken out which equates to around 0.5p. In essence, an additional 47% loss when you have recently sold out (unless I have my understanding completely wrong which wouldn't surprise me) .
If you both wish not to respond then go F*ck urself!! , haha only messing around, either way, good luck in life Sasa43 I will probably see you in PUR ;-( another fine investment choice I made!!
ShadowLess
Rosscorp
maybe so, but I think the market wants to see firm confirmation, an RNS of approval should see a steady rise, I agree.
Blackrhino1
I don't expect to see it, but if the BoD were to purchase shares with their dividend payouts, some have already alluded to it already some performance Vs reward structure on the next venture. A clear Project plan................
Rover62
Agreed, there could be a chance that the RF reduce the sale price between the two parties, look at the Kinross deal
April 05: Sale of Kinross Russian asset for $680m agreed.
June 15: Sale completed for $340m (https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/06/15/2463020/0/en/Kinross-completes-sale-of-Russian-assets.html)
On another note:
Took the RF just over a month to approve the deal, so maybe Octoberish to complete the transaction and have money in the bank?
Thanks
Sounds like they may have another venture already in the pipelines (at least in discussions)
Aubery, Agree with fees, wages .................
"Big % uplift from current SP." Agreed, only if I had the balls to buy more haha!!
Not sure why I am so chirpy, I will be losing a fair chunk of money for anything below 0.0036pps, maybe because the nightmare is ending!!!
opps not £25,074,000m, haha I wish £25m
From Sale: $35m = £29m (exchange rate of 0.82)
In Bank: £5m (Money in the bank already)
Total Cash = £34m in the bank (this equates to 0,024pps)
0.018pps distributed to all shareholders = £25,074,000m
This leaves £9m to invest (or 0.006pps), what could they invest in with £9m?
For me, the deal has to be taken now
MM
Not sure how much credence you give to the author but its an opinion
Tariq Fahad "pegged the total value of the mines at US$893 million, or about 12 per cent of the company’s net asset value"
https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/kinross-finds-buyer-for-kupol-mine-complex-in-what-analyst-calls-messy-exit-from-russia
Blumagnet
Think the reference is to this
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rollforward.asp#:~:text=What%20Is%20Roll%20Forward%3F,the%20then%2Dcurrent%20market%20price.
Hello BB69
Have to go back to my dodgy spreadsheet, but to be honest according to my spreadsheet I should be a billionaire by now!! I guess that is one of the problems many including myself, if I are honest, I never really had a grasp of the numbers, it’s the details that matter!!
Maybe there was enough data (or lack of it) to work out the numbers didn't stack up, Redlee highlighted this in many of his posts (have to say many of my calculations are loosely based on Redlees and others). Fag packet calculations, I should say rollie packet calculations (as I am skint now from the losses on AMC) it doesn’t add much to the NPV maybe $50 to $70m but will have a look.
Cherryburn
In some respect what you said was true......
the other way to look at it, the resource became less attractive when the details come to light. IMO at some point, the BOD had a good idea that the numbers were not as attractive as first thought but needed quantitative data to validate this. The BOD also looked at all options to maximise value, Open vs Closed; TS vs FFS……… even found an extra copper stream to add to the total.
Did they get to a point of no return? is it a case of let's get as much as we can? The BOD did look at diversifying away from Russia with the NRR deal.
A brief comparison to the PFS 2019
TS = NPV(10%) : $614.5* | IIR: 29.3% | Total Cap Cost: $1064.7m
FFS = NPV(10%) : $987.4* | IIR: 34.7% | Total Cap Cost: $ 1190.2m
Latest = NPV(10%) : $333 | IIR: 15.6% | Total Cap Cost: $ 1920.0m
*Bear in mind they used US$ 8.00 per pound nickel, and not including copper stream.
$105m is 31% of NPV, this is comparable to the Kinross deal.
Lucando
I think the BOD was right to present the offer to shareholders and shareholders voted accordingly, shame we didn’t have the extra information of the TEO to make an informed decision.
My daughter's birthday week so will be away, shame as it would have been nice to meet a few people here and attach a face to them. Still have my eyes on you CBS haha.........
You know the saying 'misery loves company'!!