Member Info for SGD27

Hi Rookie1, you could look back at my post 14:07 yesterday.

@Dubliner : I'd be interested in your assessment of the Boral situation - will Kirkland be enough for them, or will they be looking at us too?!

Hi Bplan, yes that's a lot of pozzolan, so it's probably just as well they're not any closer to us - their mine is about 450m SE of ours. They may be better positioned for Southern California, including LA, but we're probably better for the north: San Fran, Sacramento etc. And AFAIK they don't have perlite.

(BTW To be accurate I should have said "how they're planning to continue to do it", not "how they've done it".)

The Boral Half Year Results came out a couple of days ago, and are worth a look :

https://www.boral.com/shareholder-information/results-announcements

A couple of notable points from the "Management Discussion & Analysis" document :

Pages 7-8 : Fly ash price is up 10% compared with a year ago.

Page 12 : They've managed to increase their volume despite the coal power station closures, but take a look at how they've done it :

"In December 2019, we acquired long-term, exclusive marketing rights for ~24 million tons of high quality natural pozzolan in Arizona – securing a significant source of supplementary cementitious materials for supplying Arizona, Nevada and other western markets. The natural pozzolan site, 90 miles northwest of Phoenix, was developed and permitted by Kirkland Mining Company. Extensive testing of the pozzolan confirms it can be used as a replacement of fly ash for the production of durable concrete, with no blending required. Boral will mine and process the pozzolan in a facility being constructed at the Kirkland Mine site, with production expected to ramp up to ~500k tons over a two-year period."

Maybe they'll be looking at us next :-)

@yajnas1 Today 06:58 "What’s a typical margin ? And a typical PE"

For margin, the SVS research note suggests ~30%, which is probably as good a guess as any. This is an average - it will be lower on pozzolan because of the transport costs, higher on perlite which is priced "at mine gate". (This explains why the presentation p24 is pricing both at $100 dollars/ton, even though perlite is intrinsically worth more - the perlite customer will want a lower price to compensate for bearing the transport cost.)

For PE ratio, I believe 5 is typical for this kind of business. Here's an example :

http://www.northsouth-h.com/wp-content/uploads/North-South-Holdings-Pozzolan-Project.pdf

See the "Financial Discussion" section. They say "A diminishing asset with reclamation generally sells for 18%-20%", which I think means the same thing.

(BTW Does anyone know what happened to NSH? Their website seems to have been moribund for years.)

@Changedman : It's not there yet - it's what we're all waiting for! (We think it will appear at the start of the public consultation period.)

Steady on, Changedman, I don't think that's _quite_ what it said. (I'm looking at Page 24, but if I'm missing something, tell me where.) Still great sales values though!

It looks like the company website has been updated recently - CS Project page, NewPerl page, etc. There's also an updated Company Presentation :

https://www.sunriseresourcesplc.com/filemanager/Presentations/2020/5Feb20%20Sunrise%20Presentation%20web.pdf

It's dated 5 Feb, but I think it's only just been added. (Maybe it was put together as preparation for the last placing?!)

@yajnas1 : You could also look at this :

https://www.sunriseresourcesplc.com/filemanager/Research%20Notes/Sunrise%20Resources%20plc%20-%20SVS%20Securities%20-%20Research%20Note%2018%20January%202019.pdf

But be aware that it contains some errors & inconsistencies, and is now over a year old. (And SVS got into trouble for dodgy dealings, though AFAIK the author of this report wasn't involved.)

@Bplanoyes : It's not just a formality. Kirkland had a lot of problems with public objections. But I think that's far less likely for us.

I think the point might be that when BLM put it out for public consultation, that implies that BLM _themselves_ are happy with it (otherwise they'd be wasting the public's time!). So it's a significant milestone in itself.

I've finally had a chance to read through the results properly. I'm always trying hard to find any negatives, but couldn't see many. The permitting delay is the obvious one, which I accept is outside our control.

This paragraph caught my eye :

"In order to meet customer demand for additional testwork 18 tons of pozzolan were submitted to a commercial custom grinding facility but the process technology proved unsuitable and could not achieve the required grind size and further processing will be required using more appropriate grinding technology."

I just wondered if this carries some sort of implication about the "grindability" of our pozzolan? Given all the other successful testing I doubt if it's a problem, but I wondered if anyone else had a view? It's something I'd have asked about at the AGM, but unfortunately Macclesfield is way too far away for me.

@pepemartinez : Yes, unusual for a broker note to be conservative/realistic. But note the 70% risk discount factor. If everything ran smoothly that would imply 0.41/0.3 = 1.37p. So that's roughly a 10-bagger from where we are right now, not too bad really?

Correction: weekly diary email from LSE (this place) not HL.

The most important thing about NewPerl might simply be to stop anyone else getting their hands on it - the last thing we want is a competitor on our doorstep!

If so then we may need to carry out some token activity in order to stop the powers that be rescinding the licenses. But apart from that, we should be 100% focussed on CS at this time IMHO. Later on, NewPerl may be a nice add-on, especially if the pozz/perl have different properties from CS and can widen our market.

(Incidentally, I've just had my weekly diary email from HL, which lists SRES final results on Tuesday as expected. Not a guarantee of course, we've been told "on or around" 18th.)

Thanks destitute & Rich,

It wasn't worrying me, as I knew there must be a good answer or the whole enterprise wouldn't make sense. It's just that as a result of the recent price action this has become my largest holding by far, so I felt I ought to be better informed!

There's a technical question that's been bugging me for a while, and I wonder if someone more knowledgeable in this area can help me out? (I'm sci/tech background but not bio.)

As I understand it, interferon-beta is naturally occurring, and is already widely used, delivered by injection. So what exactly is our IP here? Is it just the inhaled method of delivery, or do we have some special formulation or variant of the drug? In other words, what's stopping it being copied by anyone else?

Any elucidation appreciated :-)

The buy/sell (blue/red) attribution is just an automated guess, based on which side of the mid-price the trade is.

I'm wondering if we're talking at cross-purposes somehow? Those TR1s show the Arix 20% being transferred from Woodford to Link. The Times then told us that WG Partners were in negotiations to buy a portfolio of 20 shares from Link, including the Arix shares. This had an exclusivity deadline, which expired on 31 Jan without any deal, so Link still have the shares and can now look elsewhere for buyers (which they have succeeded in doing in the case of RENE).

@chester18 - did you miscalculate? 32m is the _totality_ of RENE shares.