Member Info for SGD27

Yes, very interesting. Can't buy, but can sell at the buy price.

Does make me wonder who has had the benefit of the new presentation, and are they now hoovering?

@Pashman : I would also suggest you have a look at the latest video. Funding is discussed around 5 minutes in.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/925466/sunrise-resources-chairman-hails-mine-permit-for-cs-perlite-pozzolan-project-925466.html

Hi Pashman,
The last placing was indeed on 14 Feb, which was 9 days after the company presentation was updated. Mustn't jump to conclusions of course...

@Bplanoyes : that typo you spotted has been corrected - I wonder if PC saw your comment?!

I haven't looked to see if anything else has changed in 'v2' :

https://www.sunriseresourcesplc.com/filemanager/Presentations/2020/Sunrise%20Presentation%2018%20August%202020%20web%20v2.pdf

Hi Bplanoyes, I think PC does occasionally glance at this BB, so he may pick up on that typo!

Just a direct link for convenience :

https://www.sunriseresourcesplc.com/filemanager/Presentations/2020/18August2020%20Sunrise%20Presentation%20web.pdf

Maybe this link? :
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-17/warp-speed-s-covid-19-vaccine-push-lacks-a-key-ingredient-trust

Thanks, Mineralex.

There are a few changes, relative to the Feb 2020 presentation :

* Possible drill testing of legacy portfolio is now mentioned (p3)

* Mention of Millers grinding facility has been dropped (p19)

* Stuff about permitting is updated as expected (p22, p24)

* NewPerl "Drill programme planned and permitted" (p23)

* Changes to the Appendix (Projects Available for Sale or Joint Venture) : Junction Copper slide dropped; new slides added for Clayton, Newark & Bakers (but not Bay State, interestingly).

The real question is, who is this presentation being presented to?!

PS, If anyone would like to check if I've missed anything, the Feb 2020 presentation is still accessible here :

https://www.sunriseresourcesplc.com/filemanager/Presentations/2020/5Feb20%20Sunrise%20Presentation%20web.pdf

Imara doing very well today, I'm not quite sure why.

The question is will it stick this time?

@tyla (21:50) : The home trial is placebo controlled.

https://www.covidtrialathome.com/storage/pdfs/covid-19-trial-at-home-information-sheet.pdf

There's a shortened version here :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnvYV81CtVg

Not sure which bits got left out.

While we're at it, we should resurrect the John Campbell video once in a while for the benefit of any newcomers :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqDd7ixh184

It's at 22:30

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-07-22/-bloomberg-surveillance-full-show-07-21-2020-video

@sheldrake : There are loads of videos online explaining DCF. This one's quite a good 10 minute intro :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfcRUzKZZE8

Every year that everything progresses according to plan and on time, you can remove the discount for that year. So in our case the value would rise by a factor 1.2 i.e. go up by 20%.

You might also then decide that as things are going so well, a reduced factor would now be appropriate, which would lift the value even further.

Hi Dfens, thanks for your thoughts on this. I do think it's a good way of doing things to start by understanding what SVS have done, then recalculate with updated/modified assumptions.

Might the difference between your 10m & their 8m just be due to knocking off a few million for capex before applying the 70% risk discount?

The 20% DCF rate does seem quite conservative, and combines with the 5 year ramp-up to hit the value quite hard. By the time we reach full production we're discounting by (1/1.2)^5 = 0.4, i.e. knocking 60% off!

Then again, my attitude is to be conservative and leave plenty of room to be surprised to the upside!

The question I'd want to ask is whether we have to wait till Sept 11 before we're able to do the extended bulk sampling (beyond the pre-BLM permit 5 acre limit). Hopefully not - anyone know?

It would be nice if the final customer tests (which may require 28-day concrete curing time) can run concurrently with the remaining minor permit approvals.

Yes, of course "the life of the project" will mean the lifetime specified in the application, i.e. 27 years.

But in practice it hardly matters: on Sunday we were discussing the 20%pa discount factor that SVS were using in their valuation, which means that little extra value would be attributed to lifetime beyond 27 years anyway.

(Because 1/1.2 = 0.833 multiplied by itself 27 times is not a lot.)

Bplan, thanks, more progress!

Regarding posts suggesting Venrock is now at 10% - this is wrong! You can't add together the numbers in today's TR1, they represent a hierarchical chain. The heading for that section says:

"Full chain of controlled undertakings through which..."

Today's TR1 is because one of the subsidiaries in the chain has just moved above the 3% threshold, and so had to be notified.

The grand total must still be between 5% and 6% so it didn't have to be notified.

If the mcap rose from 7m to 26m you're saying you'd be disappointed?

The 20% is the DCF rate which they've used to put a value on the asset. It's to take into account that money someone says they're going to generate in the future is worth less than money in your pocket now.
Very loosely speaking it's the inverse of the PE ratio, so 20% corresponds to a PE of 5, which would be quite typical for this sort of operation. It's actually a bit more complicated than that, because of the way production ramps up over the years, so for that you'll have to look at the wiki link I gave.

The 70% is just representing the possibility that the whole thing never gets off the ground.

So when they start shipping you can disregard the 70%, but the 20% DCF calculation remains.

Just my amateur understanding, happy to be corrected if wrong. As always DYOR.