RE: OCDO in The Times, 20/06/2220 Jun 2022 12:15
'While the debate rages about its technology, Ocado’s retail division — half-owned by Marks & Spencer after a £750 million deal — is also facing scrutiny over fears that the soaring cost of living will prompt shoppers to start trading down. Steve Rowe, M&S’s recently departed boss, said last month that his shoppers were more affluent than the average and spent £3.5 billion on online groceries a year, but only £600 million via Ocado.
Rowe also highlighted that once the online grocer had enough warehouses and capacity it would gain more customers, but Ocado Retail is building more warehouses at a time when the online grocery market is declining to such an extent that the company had to put out a surprise profit warning last month after a sharp slowdown in sales. The division halved its growth forecasts, saying that it expected sales to grow by less than 5 per cent rather than the 10 per cent it had predicted previously. That surprise prompted Peel Hunt, a long-time supporter, to cut its earnings targets for this year by 73 per cent to £40 million.
Steiner said: “Over the longer term, we [Ocado Retail] still expect to grow by 10 per cent to 20 per cent and there will be an inflection point when the efficiencies are such that online grocery will be very competitively priced to hypermarkets, and then it will really explode.”
Figures from Kantar, the market researcher, have shown that shoppers are already switching to cheaper own-brands and are trading down. Much has been made of the Audis, Range Rovers and BMWs in the car parks of Aldi and Lidl as the discounters have won over the middle classes, traditionally Waitrose and Ocado shoppers, with cheap wine and the thrill of a bargain.
Steiner said: “Groceries are a Giffen good [non-luxury items that generate higher demand when prices rise]. In our baskets there might be some trading down to cheaper goods, but there will also be extra meals going in as more people stop eating out. The easiest way to save £16 isn’t by cutting back on online food shopping, it will be by not eating out or not having takeaway deliveries.”
While Ocado’s share price is back at 2019 levels, having lost all its advances during the pandemic, the company’s backers argue that it is a much bigger business than it was three years ago, when it was yet to build an international warehouse. However, investors will have to wait three more years for real income to start pouring into the business from its retail partners’ warehouses — and a volatile stock market has little patience.'
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