Member Info for senseman

good morning, happy campers
HUR +10 and on a rise, Brent +107 and on a rise
with all good news monthly finance & production update due in circa 9 days, traffic lights all green & only nutters selling.
& mad **** putin getting progressively madder & giving HUR a healthy upwards shove

re ukraine - czech republic sends 12 tanks - 1st eu country to locate it's balls - uk may follow
ukraine next goals - let neither odessa or donbass fall - if they survive - putin falls
the west - park warships off odessa in international waters to occupy and block sea - send anti-ship, anti-tank, anti-plane - and get off fence and send tanks and planes - life worth living is never zero-risk

comedy half hour live on beeb and sky news channels - russian pillock speaking at UN security council - 'it's all fake, it's all fake' - shoved HUR up a tick or two

flying - sorry, got my days mixed up. that will give them another day to build a consensus

there will be more sanction today as west continues to respond after the event rather than get ahead of the game
oil and hur will rise

knowledgeable and very strong editors are needed to keep reiterating the fundamentals about any serious message
also to do so - to reiterate and reinforce a basic message is perceived as being boring and unnewsworthy
there are few, if any editors of any media up to the task - it is that simple
the only thing russia does well is scream a basic lie message ad finitum - we don't even bother to scream a basic truth message at all

perfectly said, rfarfa
a deal is a deal - but everyone forgets history, and the media ignores it
the west fecked ukraine via budapest agreement and now owes it EVERYTHING

april is 'muddy-month' in eastern ukraine - the worst month of the year for tank warfare
if the west stops p^ssing about and gets shedloads of latest generation starstreak anti-tank anti-plane shoulder-held missile launchers to eastern ukraine - the genuine possibility comes live of russia being defeated in eastern ukraine - and cataclysmic defeat for putin.
go for broke you (mostly) fat lazy overpaid western politicians - now, today!

looking at all the news bulletins re zelensky visiting bucha
he, and ukraine intelligence, are smart cookies
he is surrounded by guys all at least 6 inches taller than him to protect against snipers - he knows putin will have offered a 5-10 million dollar bounty to any of the wagner group mercenaries to take him out - and they will be there - a very real threat
brave guys - slava ukraine

here a very direct link exists between the depth & duration of atrocities/war, and the (future) depth & extent of western sanctions & long term cut-off from russia oil (& gas). in short, the worse and longer it gets (tragically for ukraine), the better for HUR. sad but true

henceforth each monthly report will bolster SP which today looking solid 9.8. monthly reports now our solid friend

in ukraine bad stuff surfacing but consider - if you have platoons of 20 year old ill educated poorly trained & disciplined conscripts, scared to death, living like pigs & drinking looted vodka to get through each day - entirely predictable. the 20 yr olds will be blamed, but fundamental blame lies with 60 yr olds who put them there

https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-feel-i-have-blood-on-my-hands-the-russian-locals-protesting-the-ukraine-war-20220304-p5a1pb.html
powerful video link half way down from australia
oh, mr putin, you have been a very naughty boy. the wheels of justice and history will soon run over you
my last ukraine post of the day - before anyone gets irritated

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10679237/More-200-arrested-today-anti-war-protests-17-cities-Russia.html
oh mr putin
150,000 troops returning home at some point, all hating you. do you think they will be afraid of your fat policemen?
50,000 (by the time it ends) mothers with dead sons all hating you. do you think they will be afraid of your fat policemen?
oh mr putin, you have annoyed even the grim reaper, and all with great glee look forward to your judgement day

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/red-is-dead-russian-anti-war-protesters-fly-a-new-flag-for-peace
'you can fool some of the people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time'
oh mr putin, you have verily and most truly shot yourself in the foot. the grim reaper eyes all of us in due course, and you are verily now dead centre in his sights

reflecting, I am coming more to the view that over time the obstacle to a peace agreement will increasingly become putin. and only putin. with putin alive there will always be the impossible task of trying to square the circle with a madman. on the separate issue of sanctions being lifted - this cannot occur whilst he is in power.
put simply, without putin, a peace agreement becomes immeasurably easier. as does a sanction-removal timetable.
it will take time for the clarity of this picture to be seen by the armed forces, FSB, and oligarchs. it will take further time for those 3 power groups to talk frankly with each other. but it will occur. each power group's best hope of intact survival is speedy peace, with hope of eventual sanction lifting.
the single action most speeding this reality-realisation will be escalation/prolonging of the war. putin will prolong the war. he lacks the intelligence not to prolong it.
merely to illustrate - for the oligarchs, putin gone + peace + sanctions-lifting timetable means not only business survival but, since collectively they are proxy holders of putin's wealth (the richest man n the world), that they collectively retain his wealth, and rid themselves of a fearful life
i put putin's chances of not being killed by one, or a collective, of the 3 power groups as no more than 50-50. stalin's famous saying...'no man-no problem' is more and more likely to be, in this instance, russia's saviour

oil is his big earner. he won't turn it off
gas is western europe's achilles heel and his much lower earner

there is a war which will take 4 mill bpd from western markets. it will not return
there was a supply crunch on it's way pre-war
china covid will recede
brent is 105 and more likely than not to level out at 120 ish in few weeks. couple of months
perfect storm for HUR - sanity says buy

flying - also been musing that one over. at least there are 2 months to play with and if holds at 110, when china comes back should see a 120 base. so far from being all doom and gloom. with luck be all back roaring along nicely by june/july

kama - if the contract means last 5 trading days of the month brent average rathe than last 5 calendar cays we may be near the $113 mark as there was a weekend in the middle which wouldn't count and brent on 2 days before weekend was 115-120. let's hope. and as you say, 60 days is a long time for normal service to be resumed. best way to look at things i suppose is to be grateful oil doing so well that biden had to intervene and it's just little dark cloud in sunny sky

definitely don't like mr biden today. it's little comfort knowing strategic reserve needs replacing down the line.
thankful didn't happen a week ago

Like it or not for oilers disinterested in geopolitics, the way **** Putin acts will add, mid-long term Brent (+12-24 months), an added $10 - $30 (how long is your todger?) to the Brent supply-demand concrete floor. So Ukraine talk is valid - deal with it
Putin has never been anything other than average intelligence middle management paper shuffler. Read Catherine Belton's ''Putin's People - How the KGB Took Back Russia And Then Took On The West' for the how and why lowdown. The shame of Russian people and the West is how and why we let the little feckwit get away with it for so long - reason being most people are lazy unethical selfish cripples until they personally start being **** upon.
From tomorrow Germany must pay for gas in roubles - they will tell the turd to feck off.
The feckwit is now so surrounded by scared feckwits, he today did the single one thing he should have not have done - upped the ante.
For 30 years a feckwit nation armed with nukes has played with a lazy world's todger - the feckwit nation is about to be fecked and put in it's place. It may take 2 yrs - maybe 5 - maybe 10 - but the feckwit nation is about to be fecked - 30 yrs is long enough for the world to pay homage to and make allowances for your history. Putin is fecked anyway - the main issue is that lazy Russia has just fecked itself. Thank God!
Link below is 50 mins long - as the best video re captured Russia personnel it is the most illuminating I have found. The question it poses is - what effect will 150,000 similar soldiers arriving home from Ukraine (dead or alive) have on public sentiment? Do you think these guys will keep their gobs shut and be afraid of being arrested by 'policemen'?
All that is required for Russia and it's pubic to avoid a LONG overdue reality fecking that democracy needs WORK and that there exists a direct link between people & government is for us lazy western feckwits to take the pedal from the gas before the lesson has not only been understood, but institutionalised
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WO4i25gNwU