Member Info for senseman

Tiger - message is perfectly fine. Maris is both a donkey, and a wrong un. He'll never be a hero
CA will get rid when it suits HUR, not before and not until it won't harm SP. That time approaches. Patience
The stars are aligning for $120-$150 oil. Putin won't leave unless he can steal and keep part of Ukraine. Ukrainian people will tell Zelensky they prefer to suffer more losses than let Putin steal bits and pieces. I think it will get worse before it gets better. Either way Putin is toast - there will be 200000 soldiers returning home at some point telling the truth - and they won't be afraid of the police!!

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/25/germany-plans-to-halve-russian-oil-imports-by-summer

rfarfa - excellent link. and germany announced it expects to stop 50% of it's russia oil imports within 3 months
the growing oil nightmare is growing on putin and causing vast changes in plans
i can see huge western supply shortages and $130 oil by summer

Agree with Dalt. DYOR 's post nicely details the sequencing HUR still needs to go through, and illustrates how firmly bonds held things static till now. Crucial will be what further steps CA want to see completed before exiting. Ideal for HUR (& CA exit SP) would be all that DYOR lists. High PoO allows CA to telescope more into it's timeline before sale than anticipated. We can expect them to take advantage as HUR could be huge moneyspinner for them
On Ukraine front May 9 is Victory Day in Russia, most important day of year (politically). Putin will be in a mega tizz fearing still in quagmire by then. Will affect his thinking and decisions

so shoot me, Olwi...)
yes, apology, just noticed was overnight news. but impact same - brent now $120 (so HUR $113 average safe for offload), and indicates various groups likely to seek to exploit geopoliticals next few months. thereby keeping PoO high

Just happened
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1507375092040409091?s=21

My comment is:-
1. Clear impact of CA no-nonsense finance NED Juan Morera. BoD now 3 v 3 (Maris, Chaffe, Wolfe v Morera, Wright, Craik). Tip-over point reached whereat 3 v 2 could no longer argue day was night.
2. Maris seen crying at having to sign BW deal, and agree RNS text. BW would have signed same deal 2-3 months ago.
3. BW deal fair (today). Shame 3 yr extension wasn't signed 8-9 months ago at daily 25K - still, what's daily 50K extra when $20 mill already wasted on scam costs (incl CA's) - only $55 mill = $75 mill total wasted + $20 Lincoln P & A = $95 mill - only 5p a share?
4. Maris still moody - (i) without good cause refusing to embrace CA's extrapolations re economic life - 'at least 18 months from 4 June 22' should read - 'till at least Feb 2025 and possibly Feb 26'. (ii) And production is not continuing 'in line with out projections' - production is considerably exceeding expectations. (iii) $50-$80 mill should be, on current projections, +$100 mill

My prime take is SHs clear relief (see all posts) at the first RNS in 8 months being written with long-overdue news & legitimate optimism. My caution being that one swallow does not a summer make. I have zero doubt the BW deal could and should have been wrapped up 2-3 months ago whereat a similar upbeat RNS (albeit with different $ figures) could have been issued. I give zero credit to CEO & CFO for the RNS and caution others not to fall into the trap of doing so. Without CA's dedicated new board member, it would not have occurred

Reggie - realisation of my own stress level did impact the post so i take your point. but there are subtle ways and means within words to transmit both regret and confidence, which cost nothing but a little thought and empathy and which a competent ceo would naturally do. whether crooked (i agree with ronny) or simply got it wrong, it's obvious PIs were battered and are owed a ceo's best communication efforts. october's half yearly was a missed chance so april's yearly is next but to me both chief execs are nothings

My views on the failed restructuring attempt are known. But I am troubled by another aspect now 8 months have passed.

PIs holding 12% are 'small fry'. But Pi's are the 'human face'. We are not institutions or investment funds protected by board investment decisions and high salaries (though I add that my respect for RB of CA is considerable as I believe he embraced reputational risk at the crucial time). For PIs the financial & emotional risk has always been greater.

I am troubled that in 8 months there has been not a single olive-branch indication via RNS or podcast by either senior executive that 'it is regretted that we simply got it wrong'. Reading the RNS's, it is as if nothing momentous ever occurred.
RNSs continued to be factually minimalistic (in extremis), unbalanced, and lacking the most basic 'shareholder-encouragement' sentiment or language. In itself, this has ensured that PI stress levels have constantly remained ultra-high. And still do as we continue to star-gaze into the future with numbing patience and nil confidence in highly paid senior execs

The restructuring plan abused Pis on a grand scale. In my view the limitations of the past 8 months communications with SHs have continued that abuse. There has been not a single effort made to 'mend fences' with PIs. This has added to PI stress levels

good morning cat - lovely to see someone else held responsible for this week's Friday punch up...)
Am afraid Daltry and I won the bond cash prize 31 Jan as somewhere along the line pragmatism changed it to when HUR RNS's the free cash equalled bonds owed, cos Maris might keep it in his piggy bank for months just to spite us. The 16 Feb RNS said:-
'As of 31 January 2022, the Company had net free cash(4) of $85 million ($77.3 million after taking into account the above mentioned planned increase in restricted cash) compared to the last reported balance of $50 million as of 31 December 2021. $78.5 million of Convertible Bonds remain outstanding and due July 2022'
You'll be pleased to know we've already spent the prize pennies buying new handbags from the Oxfam shop, ready for our next falling our. 'Cos we'd worn out old ones out.....

Not buying bonds back at low 30c in S was criminal conspiracy
Period
SH's lost health, life savings, relationships
NEVER misplace tears over highly salaried crooks. NEVER

Apology - forgot
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/goldman-sachs-ups-2022-brent-crude-oil-spot-price-forecast-to-135/bbl/articleshow/90074380.cms

On 8 March Goldman Sachs uprated it's 2022 & 2023 Brent spot price forecasts to $135 & $115 respectively.
Since the supply-demand shortfall impact is yet to filter through, it is reasonable to assume that by next HUR offload, $135 may indeed be reality. If so, and with 4.5 further offloads due by end 2022 (late May, July, Sept, Nov + 0.5 by end Dec), such could see HUR with 4.5 x circa 53 mill = $238 mill cash added to current offload $40 mill = $278 mill net free cash (worked on $135 - $35 costs/BW profit share). To some extent specifics do not matter - main point being that +$250 mill HUR war chest by end Dec 22 is very possible.
If CA & NEDs are indeed currently seeking new CEO & CFO to replace the existing at circa June AGM, there would be merit in including within new contract packages share options (at the then SP), thereby directly incentivizing (SP) performance. This is not unusual for a 'recovering' company and would likely receive overwhelming SH support both institutional and private. LTSH may recall in Trice's time the BoD were incentivized at above circa 62p, when all seemed rosy and before things took a turn for the worse

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10645695/Risk-Putin-deposed-security-service-coup-growing-week-whistleblower-claims.html

Brent $120 amidst upward pressure
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10646295/Govt-plans-increase-North-Sea-oil-production-bring-energy-costs.html

cat - couldn't you ask easier question...?)
short answer - put myself in CA's shoes & applied common sense
CA made clear post june 21 hearing CEO & CFO retained cos if sacked HUR under AIM rules had 31days to get new CEO & CFO, or delisted. meaning bondholders back in court stealing company
post june 21 hearing - in market terms HUR great potential but all fur coat & no knickers until bonds repaid and cash in bank for free thought and action.no competent new CEO or CFO would join HUR until b/holders gone
ergo - SOLE IMPERATIVE was well 6 sweet & good till bonds repaid. all else - secondary
if CA waded in & told CEO & CFO how to do jobs they would have walked claiming constructive dismissal - recovering SP trashed
PATIENCE is HARDEST THING - SHs don't have, CA do
today peeps write re new wells etc. reality is HUR still legally encumbered by crooks until bonds repaid and still await offload cash for freedom. at present - still great potential but all fur coat & no knickers
meanwhile CA keep gob shut and get NEDs in place for denouement. buy to just below 30% as own oilies tell them barring black swan event, bubble point and catastrophic pump failure issues standard industry manageable
NO company will farm into, or buy, HUR till bad guy bonds and bad guy CEO & CFO gone
bonds - soon to be gone
CEO & CFO - first chance to get rid without SP damaging headlines - next AGM
my view - CA will have new guys lined up by AGM and likely current CEO & CFO resign citing mutual consent to protect reputations

whilst happy to be proven wrong - i do not see any scenario whereby new concrete floor will not be $120
scenario 1 - eu do not sanction russia oil and attrition war lasts +months - brent +$120
scenario 2 - eu sanctions russia oil - spike to +$150 till russia withdraws (1-2 months), then retrace to +$120 over time as part sanctions lifted
in summary - i see brent +$120 medium term (ie 9-12 months) minimum. with upside from this considerably outweighing downside
demand destruction (ie too high price) will not kick in until $150 - $200 (my view $200)

2021 was 30 june
this year not announced yet, but won't vary much
in perfect world would like it 30 july - ie.post bond repayment date and with 3 offloads cash (ie, current + 2 others) in bank or en-route. so everything crystal clear when dropping axe on ceo and cfo

https://www.politico.eu/article/squeezing-putin-where-it-hurts-his-oil-exports/

patience, dyor, patience - $23 mill a month net profit, no debt, and pleasurable sacking AGM approaching - all will be well.
meanwhile, 'cos am bored...something soulful for all to read
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/