Member Info for senseman

edy - beautifully written
it is today commonly accepted that if heavy sanctions had been applied BEFORE big war escalation started, Putin would not have proceeded. so people ruefully wring their hands in regret
unless oil is sanctioned.in 6 months time people will be wringing their hands that oil was not sanctioned
ukraine is having to beg for things it legally and morally has absolute right to expect from west

and you don't have to sanction all the oil (if you want to prat about). just sanction 50%. or ANY percentage
i would hate to have you 'nothing can be done' bozos on my side in the trenches

sonof - don't be silly. you know full well i have never posted to influence the SP and believe it will take care of itself.
the basics in ukraine is that the west, despite explicit warnings, has always been behind the curve ball and just reacted. it has never gotten ahead of the game. it again has the chance to.
and are you now saying that if oil cash (ie. the funds) was cut off, it wouldn't stop war within 3 months? don't be silly

quite understand sonof - but you started it. if you write crap be prepared to be called out for it

Western economies are robust enough to manage, for 2-3 months, inevitable issues which will arise. Russia is not.
Excuses, when analysed, are all 'noise' . It is self evident.

Sonof - easy - they have a meeting where they have a pre-decided positive vote
Of course EU can sanction oil. The relevant question is - why cannot it be done?
As of yesterday Russia's oil income was exactly same as pre-war. Our 'weaning-off' has not even started yet. Telling?
Oil usage crashed during Covid. The world survived. Covid was(is) bigger than no Russia oil 2-3 months. Ergo it can survive 2-3 months (all it would take - max) no Russia oil.
The EU (& USA) goes to 'war footing' economically. It has refuses to do so militarily. The least it can do is to do so economically. It is not currently on economic war footing. All it is doing is helping out with 'money it can afford from rich man's pocket.
After wall fell ( & Chernobyl, Ukraine signed a deal with USA UK Russia, reluctantly agreeing surrender of nuclear arsenal in return for perpetual sovereignty guarantees. it was blackmailed - no cash for rebuilding after Chernobyl unless signed.
To compare - imagine Russia invading Poland ergo breaching Poland's contract with Nato - and Nato not acting!! The deal Ukraine signed is no less binding - so at minimum USA & UK should bear part heavy financial burden of supporting oil dependent EU counties - Germany, Italy, France, Hungary
Heavily dependent countries - you for years did a deal with the devil for cheap oil - you knew exactly what you were doing and your economies benefited more than those which didn't do cheap deals - so don't whinge now if you have to bear disproportionate financial burden - all you would be doing is returning some of the cheap deal profit you have made for years. And warm 6 months is coming so nature is helping.
And the BIG point - how long would Russia (Putin) last without EU hydrocarbon cash? Answer - 2-3months max. Game over. is it seriously being suggested that the West cannot survive economic disruption for 2-3 months. Do me a favour! A piece of pee compared to what Ukraine is enduring. And what Russia would be doing with no oil money. It doesn't extend beyond common sense level
History won't judge EU kindly if it keeps funding Russia to genocide Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61040424

the share price will rise when oil is sanctioned. it has to be at some point. the alternative is to watch genocide take place for longer - events are entering hitler nazi territory as at a rapid rate of knots

morning cat - fair comment (it's Observer article.by the way)
i've always thought he's overrated, just did because he was allowed to, and had daily free oil cash to enable him
he has family, and own survival needs. like all bullies he'll put those before anything else when push comes to shove, IMO he's neither stupid enough nor brave enough to press the naughty button. if so, he would have used chemo or bio by now
but as you say it's $24 mill question

main take for me past week has been SP staying so stable amidst Brent crashing. i see this as strong confidence signal

SP at 10.5p-11.0p is holding up remarkably well, given Brent's fall to $100 on account of 3 things:-
1. IEA (International Energy Authority) decision to release 60 mill barrels from stockpile over 6 months. With USA 180 mill barrels this equates to 1.5 mill bpd for 6 months, against Russia expected 3 mill bpd shortfall.
2. China Covid
3. Weak EU hydrocarbon sanctions + certain non-EU countries' 'bargain buying'.
Against this, Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed it's $125 Brent forecast for Q2 2022. This because the influence of 1. & 2. is short-term and will naturally begin to unwind.

That SP has remained stable despite Brent's fall to $100 reflects increased market confidence in HUR, & perception that approaching monthly production & finance update will be strongly positive. Ally this to macro aspects underpinning GS's view, and SP should rise significantly in Q2. Quite apart from other 'goodies' HUR BoD may or may not surprise us with

In Ukraine, Putin has decided that, unable to take Ukraine, he will cruelly renenge-obliterate whole cities. His May 9 Independence Day deadline for any kind of success will see carnage unfold over forthcoming weeks. Attached article is fair summary of current situation. It is possible Putin may be in for further shocks
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/10/observer-view-wests-response-to-fighting-ukraine-vladimir-putin

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-gains-1-emergency-oil-release-seen-band-aid-2022-04-07/
brent $100

gazelle....i like a laugh but seriously....)
my abacus and jelly moulds extend to addition, subtraction, and common sense, suffused with a smidgeon of genius soup (just to annoy vn). i confess haven't a clue what you are talking about...)
you could ask van nuys for his opinion...the man who opined half of ukraine detested russia - we could all do with a belly laugh...

mariog - as kooba writes on advfn, 3 months behind and lazy research - the main thing is that even on 3 months ago figures they move from sell recommendation to hold - whilst still playing catch-up
i phoned canaccord for a giggle - the monkey (not the writer) i spoke with read out the full (sic) research note, which said 80 mill bonds outstanding etc and a load of other historical drivel. he had the grace to concede a 9p target with SP already +10p was illogical
as eloquent kooba writes, the good good good essence is that 3 months behind analysts now change their view from sell to hold
hur is going to be fine - we are gonna be fine - the beautiful battered phoenix will soar again

looking like HUR will need the full period till next offload to see Brent recovering.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-06/sanctioned-oil-piling-up-off-china-as-virus-outbreak-worsens
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-sinks-toward-100-eu-233338112.html

most droll, nidge...i like...). though he maybe should be nowadays
fritz - justice zacaroli was brilliant judge HUR HERO who dismissed the BoD & bondholder scam plan at june 21 court hearing. many LTSH will find the sheeran thing of interest simply because of this. van nuys is trouble personified. no one avoids the forum because of anything little ol' me posts. all van nuys has to do if i irritate him is press the filter button

good afternoon, EVIL
i will write what i like, thank you
my only post slightly off topic is judge zacaroli. and even that is HUR related

Judge Zacaroli in the news again - ruling that Ed Sheeran did not plagiarise
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/apr/06/ed-sheeran-wins-court-battle-over-shape-of-you-plagiarism-accusation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/1bn-for-ukraine-35bn-for-russian-energy-eu-chief-calls-out-funding-gap
eu has given 1 billion to ukraine re war equipment food etc whilst giving russia 29 billion for energy since war began
at circa a billion a day, putin can continue indefinitely until oil is targeted - basic sums eu reality check

it's excellent article
if current sanctions had been put in place before war started (as ukraine asked), war would not have started
intelligence (& guts) is accepting reason before self-indulgent empirical proof exists
today's sanctions will again fall behind the curve and be insufficient
only people seriously giving a jack-**** about a few GBP percentage points for a year or two are big business and election-scared politicians

easy - spot on fine fellow. quite forgot to include the energy ban