Member Info for senseman

Over on ADVFN - Laser estimates 540,0000 offload, Kooba estimates full bond money secure & $40 mill net free cash (if $112 -$113 Brent). Both usually reliable. I reckon slightly more cash poss

HUR argued in court Brent would need be permanent $85 for bonds to be repaid (itself a fiction). And Brent $85, given Covid, was a fantasy for the fairies.
$85 Brent first occurred 26 Oct, and Brent $95 before war started on supply-demand equation, with $100 forecast. Today Brent $116
HUR CFO salary £300+

Navalny gets 9 yrs in penal colony (v.bad place). Today lost significant weight and looks gaunt. I don't like his odds. 'Killed by fellow inmate in prison fight' is most likely Putin plan. Unless chief inmate boss sees him a hero and orders him left alone on pain of death

Various EU summits this week will be crucial
Best thing for Ukraine (& Brent aka HUR) is Russia oil sanctioned. Putin's prayer is that it will not be. As then he would need decide whether to retaliate by cutting off gas to EU - thereby cutting off his sole remaining big funding source. His first 'no-way out, self harm decision' he would have to make.
In war - do what your enemy least wants to occur. So EU should do it
Problem is EU 'sanction-weary'. Hence pressure to 'backslide' for economic ease. Thereby condemning Ukraine to longer attritional war. EU to it's discredit likely to fudge and not sanction - encouraging Putin to double down to get better end deal. Forcing EU to revisit issue and eventually sanction after wasting time

golden
at 113 would be 40 + 50 + 50 = 140
less say 10 for BW profit share, less say 10 extra into escrow for BW extension = 120 mill end july
i wrote in jan i foresaw 100-120 by end july, and 180-200 by end dec, give or take
peeps thought i was mad - oh ye of little faith...)

win - you can add a bit
knock off circa $8 mill for march costs, and you get $45 mill profit. i reckon mr wilks's $40 mill unless Brent crashes

apology amaj - of course should all be $

saddened by empty plank PM comparing Ukraine freedom fight for life to UK leaving EU - at moment western unity sacrosanct
dear fat spoilt evil boris - come to sensey's home and he will cut both your tongue and single ball out
and tories - you all know our 2 party system is ****e. but until us great unwashed have had enough and amend it and you cease to exist, cannot you do better than putrid vermin as your figurehead?

ooohhh.........the phoenix wings about to leave earth-ground..........we's gonna be rich , me old chinas........we's gonna be rich.....

RELIEF - that Brent is now underpinned by a both higher and quasi-permanent concrete floor. World events have gifted HUR the single most powerful external assist - long term high Brent. In Feb (when PoO was +$90), the ultra-cautious IEA (International Energy Authority) projected average $80 PoO till end 2022. This week that forecast amended to $100, ie a 20% upgrade. Many analysts see post-war Brent settling at S120. Russia oil has gone permanently till +regime change.
This for HUR opens up a plethora of action & SP benefitting possibilities only dreamt about short-term. It also removes the perpetual concern that a Brent retrace to $80 might handbrake recovery speed.

SADNESS - that the impetus for this relief has been war caused by vermin.

A paradox being that there exits a single action which would both further cement long term high PoO, and curtail the war in the shortest time. That action being the EU immediately sanctioning ALL Russia oil & gas. Yesterday a German think tank estimated the cost per German citizen of doing so ranged between $500 - £1200(max) - since two thirds of energy shortfall could be replaced immediately albeit at higher cost. This cost was less than the cost impact per citizen of Covid. In other words, it was doable without disaster. A secondary action which would curtail war would be USA & EU giving warplanes to Ukraine so that it could itself make Ukraine skies a no-fly zone. I believe both actions should occur. Nothing of value is ever achieved without risk. And a bully stops only when stood up to and gotten ahead of.

Re PoO - it would not surprise me to see it touch $150 sometime 2022. But for HUR SHs with a PoO cost base of circa $30, precision is somewhat irrelevant - the mental relief of permanent +$100 PoO (and highly possible $120) being the crucial imperative

i do NOT think HUR should hedge

HUR has saved (ie. made) a fortune since June 21 by not hedging
Since I do not believe the mid-long term impact of limiting Russia oil is yet fully realised, hence PoO upside outweighs PoO downside, my judgement call would be for HUR not to hedge PoO at any time in the forseeable future. And I hope it does not

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Pierre-Andurand-Oil-Could-Jump-To-200-By-Year-End.html

Daltry is spot on in stressing perpetual drag 2 bad guys will have on SP till replaced. And on deterring farm-ins or potential buyers. Management (be it good or bad) impacts a small company hugely. Our comfort is CA sequencing things perfectly so far and likely perceiving the AGM, post bond repayment & AM deal, as natural time for replacement. After all , why have a punch-up whilst well performance & $100 Brent is taking care of finance priority? It is even possible that CEO & CFO, given historical events, may perceive AGM at opportune time to resign with grace.
Dalt - what is your causal view on what occurred June 21? Just players getting things innocently horrifically wrong? Or someone (or several) up to no good? Whilst most hold a firm view, most also retain a smidgeon of open mind on the basis that miracles do occasionally happen. Second - Hedley became 'Senior Legal Counsel' in Nov 18. Few if any knew HUR even had one (let alone having a company secretary doubling as in-house solicitor). Why do you think HUR appointed a Senior Legal Counsel Nov 18 when it hadn't one before? And if your view is that naughties were performed in June 21, do you have a view as to whom was the prime mover?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/oil-market-heads-for-biggest-supply-crisis-in-decades-with-russias-exports-set-to-fall-iea-says.html
International Energy Agency says market will lose 3 mill bpd Russia oil from April as Russia shuts down production as can't sell
Against this India announce will buy all it can get of discounted (by +$20 barrel) Russia oil

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/rachel-emma-hedley-10a76310
thanks braines
a little porky on her linkedin, she's not an ned
so who was the prime 'legal' mover - her or the sec/lawyer?
the fact that hurr had 2 in house lawyers - does this not make it even worse?

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/dan-jankes-92857919
HUR General Counsel & Company Secretary since May 2011 - qualified solicitor
Which is more likely - CEO & CFO (& former NEDs) being 'naughty'? Or just weak, incompetent & easily led by 'legal advice'?
HUR spent $17 mill (est) on (inter alia) external legal opinion & court representation.
Instructions, ie. 'the facts'(sic) would have been drafted by HUR General Counsel & Co Sec.
It is axiomatic that DJ's own 'legal view' was that the restructuring plan was necessary & valid - otherwise 'external advice' would never have been sought.
It would require competent, strong CEO, CFO & NEDs to go against TWO (2) sets of 'legal advice'. ie that of (i) HUR in-house lawyer/Co Sec, and (ii) external legal advisors instructed by (i). 'More than our jobs are worth to do that - do we tell 'expert mechanics' how to fix our car?''
A competent, ethical company secretary/in-house lawyer would/should (i) have NEVER entertained such a restructuring plan (ii) have withdrawn such a plan from the court IMMEDIATELY Justice Zacaroli ruled in the initial 1 day hearing that shareholders remained 'in the money' and ordered a full 3 day 'evidence hearing'
I maybe wholly wrong. But were I forced to place a bet, I know where my money would go on who was the prime mover & shaker (on HUR's side) in the 'scam-plan'. Particularly in light of the various BoD unexplained events in the 18 preceding months. And the extraordinary volume of additional 'witness statements' submitted by HUR CEO & CFO in days immediately preceding court hearing 2 bore all the indications of an in-house solicitor working all hours as someone at HUR panicked

Divey - my apology - if so I stand corrected. There is a hidden person whom I believe could and should answer many questions - who has been with HUR since 2011?, namely the company secretary and in house legal counsel (he is a lawyer). He is not even on HUR's website. But we all know the power a co secretary / legal counsel wilds - EVERYTHING goes through him. I would love to know if he was the one guiding negligent fools to do what they did, via 'legal advice', or was involved in BoD changes etc. The problem is that replacing the co secretary is not an AGM/EGM matter - it can only be done by the BoD. In my view if and when the 2 bad guys go, any new BoD should replace the secretary

ultimately, choice is CEO & CFO guilty of (i) serious naughties (ii incompetence/negligence. it's always the same - crooked or incompetent. no 3rd option exists

proof will exist if one digs deep enough, it always does - relevant question is merit/value to HUR (with new CEO & CFO) & CA of expending time and money digging deep enough
Maris has never denied (despite ample opportunity) stating to RB of CA that it was 'a no-brainer' to buy bonds at 30 odd cents in $. the argument it was not done to save upsetting b/holders would fail
the issue is not whether either CPR company cooked things - no one believes they did
HUR or b/holders writing in any document 'in our opinion' is not iron clad defence and is irrelevant. 3 trite standard words do not a defence make. of course docs they produce are 'in their opinion' - relevant question being was it their true opinion
simple stuff

Dream is one day wake up to CPR 3 saying CPR 1 not completerubbish. Note - dream
Brent +$100, HUR 8. We are fine
Eventual new Brent floor likely circa $120
Discussion re 2 current main Brent & HUR EXTERNAL price drivers verboten upon risk of forum war. Senseman taking one for team & keeping gob shut save for
China Covid a temp blip - vaccines always win
Since Day 1 less chance Putin winning in Ukraine than b/holders had of stealing HUR - ie. zero. Putin immediate humiliation limited solely by necessary Zelensky concessions to limit loss of life. Knowing Putin neutered & downfall seeds in place