Crystal Amber Future (Re) Assessment Crucial3 Mar 2022 14:17
I posted the below on 25 Feb. Under remit to monetize assets, CA will will have understandable reluctance to encourage RISKY explorations monies. It will only support sure-fire SP increase expenditure. No HUR SH can complain about this - (i) sans CA, would 8 months ago have died (ii) CA are transparent - you get what it says on the tin.
That said, I am certain CA will consider if, via clever footwork & sequencing, advantage may be taken of current Brent, & it's future prognosis, any SP improving steps can be taken which do not destroy it's timeline limitations.
"The Ukraine tragedy will underpin already predicted mid- long term high Brent. Overdue realisation that dependance on Russian oil & gas must be curtailed will also underpin long term high Brent.
CA will know the SIGNIFICANT increased potential high Brent/ poss 3rd CPR/ poss Lincoln Crest unplug may provide HUR.
Against this CA have a timeline obliging disposal of HUR assets, and duty of care to CA SHs to derisk & monetize.
CA have played a blinder correctly sequencing steps to consolidate HUR, and have wisely not gotten ahead of the game. They know the current essential remains well 6 pumping and further patience. Currently overall HUR have no free cash.
Am sure that post AM deal/ bond repayment/ poss CEO & CFO replacement (should these come to pass), CA will revisit any HUR exit SP it currently has in mind. My personal wish (& I would say that of most HUR SHs) is for CA to stay involved as long as possible to nurture a DRAMATIC revaluation. Given the inordinate effort CA were forced to input into HUR, I believe that on a purely visceral personal level RB & the CA team may also wish this. But they will have a BoD and SHs making unemotional pragmatic decisions. That is, of course, as it should be.
The Ukraine tragedy is epoch-changing. For a plethora of reasons, the tragedy could benefit HUR in forthcoming months and longer term VERY SIGNIFICANTLY. Whereas few if any SHs would wish benefit to occur via such events, that is the reality."
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