Member Info for senseman

Till a most eagerly awaited Annual Results/ Report.
The overarching question:-
Will it be War & Peace - a document of substance and merit all desire?
Or a Comic?

NB: Sang froid needed re China Covid which will pass - life is life and every more shall be so

as kooba points out on advfn, $ v £ strength also helps HUR, S was 1.40 a year ago, today 1.27.
whenever there is global conflict/threat to markets, always a flight for safety into gold or $

illustrates China Covid impact on all markets, including Brent
https://www.reuters.com/business/oil-prices-extend-losses-shanghai-lockdowns-hit-demand-outlook-2022-04-25/

It is only by end July that circa $100 mill cash will sit in bank account and HUR will have freedom to act and rid itself of 1 well dependency
The first sensible, pragmatic opportunity for 2 senior execs to depart (by agreement or otherwise will be AGM likely June.
THE single (and remaining) imperative has been well 6 performing problem free. It has outperformed, and Brent has soared +$100. WE could not have wished for more.
CA will have continued sequencing plans behind the scenes. Their no-nonsense financier Juan Morera joining the BoD in March was crucial. I do not see CA leaving the job half done, with the honey pot in sight.
I expect one or two CA driven surprises on 28 April.
I see end July as reasonable point to assess progress, and will be disappointed not to see 20p by then
I share Daltry's chagrin. But believe much will fall into place by end July. We have left the 'nil desperandum' stage behind. And bright sunny uplands beckon.

Fears that China Covid may cause Beijing lockdown have spooked al western markets share markets, oil and HU this morning.
China does not use more effective western mRNA vaccines, and has not yet developed it's own mRNA vaccine. It used older-fashioned and less effective vaccines. Ally this to blanket lockdown measures when any small outbreak occurs, and herd immunity is far hehind that in the west. It could buy mRNA from the west, so far this has been politically unacceptable. The 'Party' is reevaluating wheat it should do.
The only saving grace is - that vaccines always win. Meanwhile, this morning illustrates how much healthy China market affects world economics. And how HUR SHs need exhibit yet further patience

Mr Wilks is bang on
Because we have an imbecile CEO too corrupt to write a fair and balanced RNS, we read ad finitum headline debt crap from lazy scared industry reporters, when the village idiot knows debt has been non-issue since end Jan.
Pay me or any one of 3 or 4 other erudite forumers $1000 and one of us will write a factually true RNS which will add 2p to SP within 24 hrs
Bondholders - may ye rot in hell for the evil you engineered

Next round of EU sanctions were delayed till French election results. Now Macron's won, will be announced this week.
So Brent will rise by start May
And so will HUR
Mail article will be first of several next few months in nationals

Mail On Sunday full column
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/share-investing/article-10746785/STOCKS-WATCH-Ted-Baker-going-Authentic-new-bid.html

From today's Mail On Sunday, Money Mail 'Stocks to Watch' column

"Winds of change blow for Hurricane Energy

What a difference a year makes for AIM-listed oiler Hurricane Energy.
Last summer, the High Court rejected its debt restructuring plan, which had angered existing shareholders.
Since then, a buoyant oil price has left it looking well positioned to pay off $79 million (£61million) of outstanding bonds due in July.
Last week brought an upbeat production update on its Lancaster oil field, west of the Shetlands.
This week bosses will present a sunnier picture of its finances in its annual results.
With the newfound buzz around domestic energy security, investors may finally be tempted by Hurricane."

crestal was plugged and abandoned by old BoD at a cost circa $20 mill, to make out commercial value of LinWick was zero in the court scam plan. can be unplugged or new well dropped a few metres away, it's worth 5000 barrels a day to HUR eg half a mill a day at $100 oil

the tax credits can be fully utilised by an oilco buying HUR. period
tax credits approximate $1 billion
tax rate is banded, for simplicity average 20% (it's higher) = $200 million
industry standard is to pay 50% of value = S100 million = 5p a share
if HUR utilises es the credits itself over the requisite time period, the value as time unwinds is $200 million = 10p a share

https://theclassyinvestor.com/2022/04/21/second-wave-of-russian-oil-shock-is-starting/

free version of bloomberg article should bloomberg link not work

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-21/war-in-ukraine-the-second-wave-of-russia-s-oil-shock-is-starting

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/morgan-stanley-raises-q3-2022-brent-oil-price-forecast-to-130--9629151.html

Of immediate interest are 28 April Annual Report (great expectations in 6 days time), and average Brent price May 1-5 (offload due May 22-25ish). 8 days left for rise from +$107 to $116 to keep alive hopes of another $60 mill offload.
EU have been quiet, awaiting French election outcome this Sun 24 April. If Macron wins (probable, next week will see another mixed-sanctions round, which should impact Brent upwards. EU is steadily moving towards oil sanctions (see link)
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-closes-in-on-russian-oil-ban-vladimir-putin-ukraine/
Will be great numbers of HUR alarm clocks set for 7am Thurs 28th - will be a full coffee pot and bottle of good red wine morning

mira - good explanation in plain english - we live and learn - thanks from all
perhaps useful accounting tool, but usually as useful and misleading to SH joe soap as chocolate teapot?

yes, gd, was musing similar, couldn't get to $700 mill
if you are correct )probable),so that $70.8 mill figure is correct, what screams out are 2 things:-
1. how wholly unrealistic CPR finance figures are - $72 barrel future prognosis (even at 31 Dec 21) a fairy tale
2. how any HUR (or any oiler) CPR RNS needs accompanying by a CEO explanatory note giving more likely figures and the method of calculation - eg Brent at $90, $100 & $110 (give all 3, why not?)
Give or take, HUR achieved the $70 profit figure by the Jan & March offloads. Astonishing that CPR companies can publish reports without giving a range of oil price scenarios, and CEO's can publish them without their own range of oil price scenarios

can't be right GD. HUR has already made 70 mill profit since report drawn up
has to be the missing zero explanation

thanks tango

Can anyone explain how in the ERCE upgrade mentioned in Energy Voice, 2P reserves of 5.8 mill barrels gives $70.8 mill net present value in best case scenario? Is the $70.8 mill a typo?-saw it in the ERCE before but glossed over it