Member Info for senseman

mariog - no probs, someone will let us know soon. as for next few weeks, HUR is going to be fine. next offload soon and $65 mill free cash in bank - and $100 mill end july - and announcement bonds all paid to boot. I will say now that the trade writers will be all over HUR with different mood music. we are going to fly....)

no mariog, the header was 'simple and Daltry' or 'Daltry and simple'. If not yourself, perhaps it was Euston. Euston, was it your thread?

mariog - your (i think it was your) thread earlier today has been pulled. i may be wrong on the numbers, but it is likely to have been pulled on account by complaint to moderator by a 19 day newbie poster who by my count has likely caused three threads to be pulled within 19 days. what is your view? if wasn't your post, can you recall whose it was?
reggie - patience...this is serious stuff...3 posts pulled in 19 days.... does this not make your ass twitch......??)))

mariog
RB of CA has intelligence & balls. but he has a BoD & duty to shareholders to limit risk. at some point, he & BoD will need make judgement call.
i think formal announcement that bonds repaid (HUR free of legal encumbrance) & $100 mill in bank will be turning point enabling industry writers to promote HUR in vastly different light. that is why I have long seen end july as turning point. replacement of CEO & CFO would be a turbo boost.
my hope is that for plethora of reasons SP rises organically to 20p by end july. of course, it may not. but i will be disappointed should it not.
if end july sees 20p, this would allow CA to adjust it's target exit price to +30p i hope RB has freedom of action to wait till end july to reappraise CA's exit price. not only on the basis of fair value, but as a corollary a modicum of justice for LTSHs locked in at 30p, 40p, 50p etc
my view on current fair value is circa 30p. but i am by nature optimist. given all and everything, if CA delay exit till dec 22 and beyond, i do not see 40p as impossible

but the man has no sense of humour - nothing - no leaving things be - unless one agrees with his view of history and signs a statement to that effect. would be understandable if he is right - but he's drivel-speak on steroids
rather like someone else with the same mindset causing genuine havoc on a world stage

below is the full post. i hereby apologize for inadvertently when under time pressure calling you a deramper, the body of the text shows the reality of my concern being your airbrushing of the CEO & CFO actions and that even CA agreed with your view. the forum is smart enough to understand the content of the post, rather than the hurried header. AS ARE YOU.
now that bogus 'issue' has been cleared up, i yet again suggest we leave it at that so the forum is not clogged.
have a nice day x

"Simple de-ramper
You call upon others to prove CA's position re the BoD. We do not have to. You originally posted:-
'The BOD has been acting in the best interests of the company throughout, even CA agrees with this fact. Not necessarily the best interests of the shareholder but that is a different story.'
The onus is thus upon you to prove your statement. I call upon you to prove your bald, unsubstantiated statement.

It took the forum less than 4 hrs to identify you as a de-ramper - in forumspeak a 'canary'. I am afraid you have been caught with your knickers down. There will be no return to respectability. You have even exhibited a complete lack of class or style by complaining to the forum moderator within record time.

I feel a forum 'CANARY DE-RAMPER ALERT' approaching..........."

simple - i have held out an live branch which you have rejected for all the forum to see. have a nice day x

for completeness - my view as made plain several times is that your reason for being on the forum is to airbrush the reputations of CEO & CFO. i have never asserted that you deramp the share.

i have no intention of kowtowing to you or your bogus 'conditions' in any way shape or form. i have made plain my view of your reason of being on the forum. i suggest we leave it at that so as not to bore the t*ts off the forum, the forum is wise and makes it's own mind up on the validity of posters. i believe it already has

as 0161 writes, $108 Brent & $55 mill likely end May offload value. shame likely $115 missed by a week.
new Brent floor (supply shortage) was $100 pre-war. with 240 mill barrel (180 US + 60 IEA = 1.3 m per day for 6 mths) release from strategic resources due to finish in Sept, and EU oil sanctions kicking in, new post-war Brent floor likely to stabilise @ $120. Both OPEC & Russia happy with high oil
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61188579
simple - must confess to playing you few days ago to get couple of your naughty (my perception) threads removed. as soon as you raised spectre of complaining to moderator, juiced up my comment to ensure you did. moderator as expected pulled whole thread(s), so job done. much quicker than arguing with you & clogging up forum.
by the way, oft posted am welsh and live london. not usa in any form, thank you. and on touchy chief exec issue, rather think in time you'll find my views kittenish compared to the hundreds of forumites still deep under water at 30p, 40p, 50p etc, and with elephantine memories. have a nice day and let's void the handbags in future

put another way - is a license still in place which allows them to return to the OGA and ask for permission (which may or may not be granted) to unplug the JV 10K well, or drill another one right next to it?

Dive - I share your chagrin and view. Forgive my stupidity in seeking clarity re the P2294 license. Is this still valid and does it include the P&A JV 10K test well? You are correct the tie back kit was bought and paid for and still sits somewhere unless it's been binned or sold most unlikely

can anyone clarify if the surrendered license includes the P&Ad JV 10K test well? like cat, have scrambled brain re the licenses, and others will have also
schlemmy - good spot - we will get there..)

It is difficult to comment on 2021 Annual Results without commenting on 2021 events & CEO & CFO current position. Particularly when it is commonly accepted their continuing tenure definitely impacts upon interested trade parties' confidence in investing in HUR in whatever form - a dilemma certainly occupying CA's mind at present. It is impossible to avoid discussion until such time as CA resolve the position & SHs may elect to agree or disapprove. CEO & CFO discussion remains live & valid and is categorically not a subject belonging in the past.

I would hazard a fair guess that posters have already refrained from CEO & CFO comment for fear of incurring the condescension & scorn of a certain being. The danger is that when discussion is curtailed for such reason, that poster's aim of shutting down CEO & CFO criticism is achieved. That would be wrong.

It has been asserted my posts are limited to reliving the past, thus should be discounted. In a world where we see the havoc 'the big lie' is causing, I regretfully feel bound to refute this 'little lie' directly, less newbies fall for it. My history of making sound calls on crucial aspects, MONTHS AHEAD OF MOST, is impeccable and irrefutable. I stated immediately it was announced, that the restructuring attempt would fail. In July 21 I stated we would see Brent hit $80 by Xmas & $100 by end Jan. In Jan 22 (prior to war), I stated HUR would have $100 mill free cash by end July, & $200 mill by end 22. In Jan I also posted we could all sleep till June/July as little of note bar CA's behind the scenes sequencing (new NED/ forcing change of mood music) would occur until the AGM/$100 mill free cash milestones were reached. Those January predictions are currently being proven correct.

A forum punch up is occasionally necessary in order that the little lie does not gain traction and become an accepted big lie. It is rarely a case of 'six of one and half a dozen of the other'. Protecting freedom of speech to criticize the CEO & CFO is, in my view, worth a few broken handbags and a degree of tedium. That said, I am leaving my handbag in the cupboard as much as possible

ADDENDUM – CUMULATIVE WASTED COSTS INCURRED BY RESTRUCTURING PLAN & RELATED DECISIONS (in S mills)

Legal, consultancy & experts (17 est + CA costs) 20
Bond purchase 100m @ 86c rather than earlier achievable @ 40c 46
Bond coupon 100m x 1yr approx (min) 8
JV Lincoln well P&A’d – North Sea av 5mill (please correct), say 5
Failure extend Aoka Mizu lease @25K day rate 3yrs June 22-June 25
Day rate June 21 to end of life 75K .Wasted sum 50K p.day x 365
= 18.25 x 4 yrs (June 21 – June 25) = 73 mill
Less 1% x sales sum re reduction 9% to 8% = less 6 mill. say 8 mill 65
TOTAL $144 mill (= circa 7.5p per share)

Above predicated on realistic assumptions that had not restructuring plan been conceived, responsible BoD would have:-
(i) achieved bonds volume 100m @40c purchase (using 40 mill of 60 mill in bank)
(ii) not P&Ad JW Lincoln 10K test well (5K bpd value to HUR if tie-back to Aoka Mizu
(iii) extended June 21 Aoka Mizu lease @ 25K day rate 3 yrs June 22-June 25. HUR own figures stated commercial production till Feb 24, more reliable CA figures say +Feb 25. In worst case scenario, given that 1yr @ 75K day rate = 3yrs @ 25K day rate, production ending any time after 1 yr & paying 25K day rate till end of lease would have saved HUR cash

The above takes no account of free cash accumulating sooner at faster rate hence accelerating one-well derisking programme. Nor of potential profits lost via loss of Lincoln well tie-back @5K barrels p.day to HUR. Nor of SP diminution via company's market confidence destruction (as of start May 2022, 2 most common phrases still utilised in industry reporting being 'troubled HUR' & 'debt burden'. SP diminution - pick one's own number - 5p min?

That said, we are where we are. And beautiful Hurricane Phoenix is set to fly the ashes

(Pt 2).
CA to decide if CEO & CFO retained & monitored. Or replaced. Related to decision whether to progress HUR longer term & seek extension to current Dec 23 CA wind-up date from CA shareholders. Or to maximise SP value via limiting exploration cost risk and seek speedy offload of 28% holding at target price via direct sale or sale relating to buyer company reversing into HUR. Hard to see how CA could offload 28% at anywhere near fair price with current CEO & CEO in situ. Like most, I would prefer to see both chief execs removed & CA remain 28% SH for at least 18 mths longer to oversee actions to relieve HUR it’s one well dependency. But given CA has been in HUR now 10 yrs – much longer than it’s norm – instinct says CA likely to replace chief execs, establish in principal (ie little or no hard cash being yet expended) a cost-effective forward plan, then seek 28% sale to buyer able to utilise HUR tax position. Whatever CA plan is, I assume they are currently doing spadework.

As opined Jan 22, we can continue to have a little sleep till AGM & end July, by which time much should become clearer. Meanwhile, the awaited analysts’ reports & Brent will be interesting. And Malcy, always one for a racing certainty, considers HUR at 9-10p a ‘no-brainer’. So what can possibly go wrong..?)

THE GOOD
Well P6 outperforming persistently understated expectations.
Well P6 no management issues – bubble point, gas, pump etc.
Secretary/ In House Counsel since 2011 Dan Jankes departed April 22 (not included).
Valuable tax position acknowledged & quantified
Mood music improvement, though still unaligned with reality.

THE BAD
Dan Jankes departure unmentioned.
Cash end July understated $60m @ $90. Should read likely $100m @ $100-$110. Brent circa $105 on report/writing date, likely to rise not fall. Given not a CPR – appropriate to postulate most likely oil price, given only 3 month assumption period.
Well P6 commercial end-date still cited as end 2023 despite CA’s proven figures suggesting minimally Feb 2025.
Lincoln 10K JV well P&A. P&A commenced one week prior to June 21 Hearing. OGA deadline was Oct. Normal practice - decision left till post-Hearing in case new BoD disagreed. Was P&A’d to assist BoD argument in diminishing HUR assets.
GW license surrendered (please someone advise if also P&A 10K well surrendered?).
Mood music still unaligned with reality.
Failed restructuring attempt & wasted costs thereof ‘airbrushed’ No minimalistic ‘mea culpa - we accept BoD erred’ acknowledgement or apology..
Specifically, unexplained why:-
(i) Restructuring plan work commenced circa Sept 20 – unprecedented 21 months prior June 21 repayment date.
(ii) CA ostracized via communication blackout, forcing ‘no confidence’ statement.
(iii) Bonds not bought in volume at sub 40c in $S.
(iii) CA (supportive via hard cash since 2012) portrayed in High Court as “johny-come-lately quick in & out money making spivs”.
(iv) SHs (incl CA) only accepted as ‘interested parties’ under order of court.

& THE UGLY
Document written by disgraced CEO & CFO.
Having to read said document.
Bonds outstanding despite free cash available

OVERVIEW
Last 12 months evidences incontrovertibly (ie net of any Ukraine war uplift) Covid did not nearly destroy HUR, nor could it have. At ultra-low circa $25pb OPEX, HUR nigh impregnable save for bond repayment threat instantly nullified by buying bonds in volume sub 40c in S using cash in bank. Shareholder near-wipeout caused solely by restructuring attempt.

CEO & CFO, of necessity retained in situ by CA post June 21, instil nil confidence & present block to attracting trade farmee/ whole buyer/ sale of CA 28%. With stability achieved, circa $100m free cash expected end July 22 (& $200m end Dec), time elapsed & AGM due shortly, that necessity falls away.

CA to decide if CEO & CFO retained & monitored. Or replaced. Related to decision whether to progress HUR longer term & seek extension to current Dec 23 CA wind-up date from CA shareholders. Or to maximise SP value via limiting exploration cost risk and seek speedy offload of 28% holding at target price via direct sale or sale relating to buyer company reversing into HUR. Hard to see how CA could offload 28% at anywhere near fair price with current C

Thanks to GD for posting today's link from Scottish Herald - as long term HUR Secretary & In House Counsel he had to deeply involved in scam-plan and even have been one of the string pullers. I do not believe CA will have been happy with him remaining in situ. Again, thanks to GD!
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/20095298.north-sea-firm-recruits-heavy-hitter-eyes-acquisitions/

To the certainties of taxes and death, add 2 more:-
HUR will soar
Ukraine will soar

Brent & SP ticking up nicely
Slave HUR, slave Ukraini

german oil ban nears
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-Could-Ban-Russian-Oil-In-Days.html
gas to poland cut off
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Polish-Media-Russia-Has-Halted-Gas-Supplies-To-The-Country.html