Member Info for SenatorPrime

Here's the professional assessment:

Risked NAV 8.6p - Unrisked NAV 21.5p

"To bridge the gap between current market pricing and the strategic buyout potential, we use a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation. This model incorporates the established Zeus Capital benchmarks alongside the significant resource upgrade from the Gobi prospect.

1. The Core Valuation: Heron Field (Block XX)The baseline for any buyout is the Heron Field, which is already in production.Recoverable Resources: 25 MMbbl (P50 Base) to 60 MMbbl (Upside/3P).NPV10 (Zeus Base): Zeus Capital previously modeled a Risked Net Asset Value (NAV) of 8.3p. This includes a high "geological chance of success" (GCoS) for Heron but heavily discounts future exploration.

Unrisked NAV: Zeus’s unrisked figure of 23.3p assumes the full development of the 60 MMbbl upside at current oil prices (approx. $75–$80 Brent).Buyout Logic (The 8.6p Floor):A strategic buyer typically pays for "Proven + Probable" (2P) reserves. At a standard industry acquisition cost of $5.00 to $7.00 per barrel in the ground:$$60\text{ MMbbl} \times \$6.00 = \$360\text{ million total value}$$Adjusting for the 1.86B share count and converting to GBP:Result: ~£160M / 1.86B = 8.6p per share.

2. The Multiplier: Gobi Prospect (150% Larger than Heron)The Gobi prospect (including Gobi Bear-1) is the "basin-opener." If Gobi holds 150% more oil than Heron, we are looking at an additional 90 MMbbl to 150 MMbbl of potential recoverable resource.ComponentResource (Est. Recoverable)Val. at $6/bblPer Share (1.86B shares)Heron (Proven/Probable)60 MMbbl$360M (£280M)8.6pGobi (Exploration Upside)90 MMbbl$540M (£420M)12.9pTOTAL (Combined)150 MMbbl$900M (£700M)21.5p

What price do people think the Fundraise will be at?

'Kharg Island: Iran’s Oil Lifeline and a Tempting U.S. Target'

"The small island in the Persian Gulf serves as Iran’s primary oil terminal, handling roughly 90 percent of the country’s crude exports. Recently, it has become a high-value target in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran."

https://www.cfr.org/articles/kharg-island-irans-oil-lifeline-and-a-tempting-u-s-target

Kharg Island - Maybe/Maybe Not. Other infrastructure? Very likely imho!

Trump previously gave his thoughts on Kharg Island. We'll know soon enough in the next few days

'Tehran says 'no plans' for new talks after US seizes Iranian cargo ship'

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cly90l3ln30t

Talks amy or may not go ahaed but extremely unlikely we'll see any deal. given the extent nof divergence in fundamental positions. I've stated earlier, I tyhink it's liukely Trump has his plans set, beyond any deal and with a 'decapitation' of Iran's ability to meaningfully function going forward - at least to the level of being able to continue funding proxy regional players or advancing any Nuclear capability.

His continued references to targeting infrastructure ie Bridges, Power Stations & the heart of the oil industry ie Kharg Island, will have massive implications going forward - for Iran & the major benefiuciaries of Iran's oil exports ie CHINA.

Their Supply side diversification strategy will already be in play and Mongolia will fit into that - both for Hydrocarbons & Oil (links provided today & previously have already clearly stated that)

Haircut or the Guillotine, for retail share holders!!

BB's are for posting/sharing!!

Are you 'simple'?

Why even post anything then, if "it’s all there for everyone to see"?

Nonsense!

Citytildie - I put it out there, hoping someone might put forward a bull case that i (or others) haven't reallyn considered or weighted as heavily. On consideration and without that input on the BB, I'm going to keep the derisked component here - after already taken the bulk into MATD.

I think every PF has room for a highly speculative binaryb play and UOG fulfills that in mine, especially so as it's all risk free for me now.

We're both holders here,albeit at probably markedly different weightings to our overall Portfolios. .Atb

Do i sell my remaining holding here and put it into MATD, with the derisked amount earlier?

And the 200MW Hybrid Project entering 'Ready to Build' status around Q2, with 'big hitter' partners already having been engaged across the PF.

Perfect storm with elevated Oil prices, new strategic supply line prioritization & the Renewable arm coming on line!

Fevamotinico and what they intend to do, should be closely monitored. They have a huge shareholding and i think are positioned to potentially move against retail holder interests.

Back to the MATD forum. Gl all. Tread carefully

Some huge red flags imo but i think people will be able to see that for themselves, on reading between the lines.

"This estimate (end of Aug 2026) remains subject to the volatility of iron ore pricing, operating expenses (including energy costs) and in circumstances where there are no material changes to the operating conditions of the Group, including energy supply, and (if) NO RESTRICTIVE MEASURESare put in place by the insolvency manager appointed within Ferrexpo Poltava Mining ("FPM") and there are no negative outcomes to the various proceedings to which the Group are currently subject."

"the Company has engaged with Fevamotinico S.a.r.l. ("Fevamotinico"), its largest shareholder, which currently holds 294,993,686 Ordinary Shares being 49.32 percent of the existing Ordinary Shares in issue (excluding Ordinary Shares held in treasury), as to whether Fevamotinico would provide support for the shareholder resolutions at the General Meeting."

We had a 13% loss on my smallcap Producer-Explorer hidden gem MATD on Friday afternoon, almost perfectly aligned with the 'Straits Opening' news. Looking at BP's loss on the day, it really puts that into perspective. 7% drop is huge for a Main market blue chip stock. Currently, looks like the US & IRAN are fundamentally poles apart re: their positions on the nuclear issue & with an Iranian tanker now having been fired upon and disabled.

The Straits are now closed again, Peace talks in tatters & so reasonable to expect the bounce back up.

Jakers - "When peace returns and the Strait is reopened safely on a permanent basis oil price and bp stock price will return to true value, and not the temporary inflated heights we've seen over the past couple of weeks."

A lot can happen in the interim. For example, will Trump eventually take out Kharg Island? How much of bthe gulf countries infrastructure will have been damaged and thereby compromising supply going forward. We'll also need emergency reserves built back up.

I think we'll have elevated prices, for some time beyond any conflict cessation. One of the reasopns I invested in MATD, is because it has Gulf & EU multi-billion USD investment moving into its Renewable JV, SunSteppe.

I'd think in the Geo-political supply shocks linked to energy and specifically Hydrocarbons, the Renewable investment across the board will attract a much greater urgency and corresponding Investment.

I do think a lot of people have been caught out by the 'Opening' and now 'Closing' of the Straits of Hormuz, which has completely messed up 'reactive' trading agendas for many individuals.

Trump wont stop until he sees his agenda through & the Iranian regime are known for drawing nthings out. That tells me elevated oil prices & uncertainty are here for a good while yet, unless some tangable progress in peace talks really does materialise - otherwise, we can expect a resumption of Kinetic military strikes etc

We had a 13% loss on my smallcap Producer-Explorer MATD on Friday afternoon, almost perfectly aligned with the 'Straits Opening' news. Looking at BP's loss on the day, it really puts that into perspective. 7% drop is huge for a Main market blue chip stock.

Now we hear the Straits are closed again, so reasonable to expect the bounce back up.

Jimmibrush, have a look at the timing of the selling activity to the Strits news releases. Pretty straightforward to see what triggered the selling.

Glad i've still got mine!