Member Info for SenatorPrime

US timing: US President Donald Trump said there is “no time frame”

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/22/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-blockade-ceasefire

There's also mention that it would take 6 months to clear the Straits of Hormuz of Mines, post conflict cessation.

Brent Oil (and global supply limitations) will remain significantly elevated for a long time yet.

So, beyond the current conflict, we have a very sustained bullish environment for Brent Oil - and increased Net Payback of $40 from the $70bb reference baseline, with the Refinery online.

"Brent crude remains in strong backwardation along the forward curve, with the back stable at $68-70 per barrel (bbl). StanChart has predicted that oil prices will remain $10-20/bbl higher than pre-conflict levels even after the acute stage of the conflict ends, supported by purchasing for strategic reserves, a focus on resource nationalism and hoarding, as well as the logistical lags caused by the disruption."

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/StanChart-95-Per-Barrel-Is-The-New-Oil-Price-Equilibrium.html

Unfortunately, you're probably nearer thye mark than many would like, imo.

Been part of a placing with another company, MATD, which had a circa 50% discounted placing back in the day - Thankfully thats behind us there but pretty tutbulent at the time and with never a prospect of a complete wipeout. FXPO is on a very scary wicket

Precarious, on various fronts!!

"Under the Relationship Agreement, Mr Zhevago retains the right to appoint himself as a Director of the Company, or another person as his representative director"

With CHINA & INDIA vying for new strategic supply sources, the following may also be considered, in the context of the current Farm Out process -

'China Has Turned To Central Asia To Mitigate Middle East Oil Supply Risk'

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Has-Turned-To-Central-Asia-To-Mitigate-Middle-East-Oil-Supply-Risk.html

Also, re: the Header & retention of maximum share of Block, we can reference the actual comments by Buck on the matter, when discussing Farm Out funding, mentioning around 5 Wells in a sepertae reference & borrowing to support furtjher development. From the Investor Meet Presention (Q& A - No: 6)

Q. "The expected capital allocation to growing production. Will this be through borrowing or through cashflow?

A. "We'd like to get over the hump of an early investment in drilling using somebody else's money, get the production level up to a rate where it can at least partially fund the development and then BORROW the rest

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/investor-presentation-891

Why retain as much of Block XX? Let's look at some Asset Valuations:

TOTAL ASSET VALUE

Laboratory geochemical testing has already proven hydrocarbon presence at Gobi, making the upcoming well test a high-probability de-risking event. Here is the asset value in the ground (1.86B shares):

* A) Heron Field (60 MMbbl Recoverable):

* $300M (£234M) | 12.6p per share

* B) Gobi Prospect (90 MMbbl – 150% Larger than Heron):

* $450M (£352M) | 18.9p per share

* C) TOTAL Block XX Portfolio (150 MMbbl):

* $750M (£586M) | 31.5p per share

Think reasoning behind maximum retention becomes clear & the massive disconnect between current Mkt Cap & Asset Valuation scenarios, especially the base Proven & Probable of already producing Heron.

Back to the Investment case & referencing actual related info.

We've had some opinions on retaining 100% ownership of Block XX & others preferring maximum Development Pace, in exchange for a likely bigger relinquishing of share.

Like many here, I expect the delay in the Operational Update RNS, is to give sufficient time for the Farm Out deal to be concluded, as indicated in the Feb RNS & with the 'successful' March MRPAM meeting signing the 2026 Works Program.

I also expect the eventual deal to be focused somewhere between the aforementioned positions, albeit i suspect (peculation of course), that the Farmee partner would be looking for a larger share & given the rapidly evolving Strategic Supply shift - The main parties are believed to be CHINA / INDIA based of course, hence that would make perfect & obvious sense.

I believe SNG was your biggest holding Doc...down overn 90% before delisting!

Re: GCM, sold out ages ago, after having bought in around 1p.

Re: MATD, unlike your COPL fiasco I've lost nothing, as I've only increased my holding level to effect a low average. I expect this will be a $Buillion company in due course & with a zero debt to protect retail holder interests. Take that on board before your next dud move perhaps Doc ;)

Anyway, enough of your nonsense. Have a good evening all genuine holders

Fevertreemademe, lost over £48K on his dud BCE after trading nout of MATD.....and coming onto the BB to tell holders how stupid they were, just before he crashed & burned.

that's the reality of these characters!

Unlike Doc's 'dud' COPL, MATD has Zero debt & 100% owned asset etc

I wont even begin to mention his other dud SNG, dropping from over 10p to under 1p before de-listing......'successful trading' (lol) at it's best.

Have a good vevening all

" I sold out the majority of my holding here and have since more than trebled my money elsewhere."

Doc, I believe you lost a massive chunk of your MATD traded money on that heavily indebted pile of junk known as COPL!

As usual, they onmly want to project an image of 'successful' trading, conveniently forgetting the multitude of duds.

Anyway, back to MATD and atb to genuine investors here

"just a shame we have no idea if we are drilling or not drilling this season."

Perhaps check on references to GOBI, Heron 1&@, Gazelle etc, which are scheduled for work as soon as possible at start of season. It's the Farm Out confirmation / details thats unknown atm.

I think we can reasonably expect the next Opeational Update RNS any day now and given the Winter thaw / Satellite imagery of Gobi, Heron 1 etc. Also concur with those stating the delay in the Operational RNS (and AGM) is 'concluding' the Farm Out deal, as mentioned in the Feb RNS

"If they neeed money to finance delayed VAT refunds, why can't Ferrexpo just get a loan? There is no need to dilute shareholders."

If thayt's actually the game being played here? There's also the scenario of Ferrexpo being manouvered into a scenario where ownership is transferred away from retail shareholder ownership.

What price do people think any Placing will be at?

We now USD Billions being allocated for the Mongolian Renewable sector, which is set for explosive growth - we also know the Petro Matad JV CEO Ms Zula Lavsandorj (the Special Govt Advisor) is right dead centre of those developments - and we have the first one hitting development Q2/Q3!!

ALL cards lining up very nicely for Petro Matad & its shareholders - Hydrocarbon production upscaling, Renewable investment & growth, Geo-political energy supply shifts etc

"It's been said time and time again. Let's keep it real."

SpamMaiden wants to keep it real, so let's keep it real - focusing on the Investment Opportunity NOW & not endless cut & paste about past expenditure, pre- land access , Covid etc.

Here's a grown up assessment::

Risked NAV 8.6p - Unrisked NAV 21.5p

"To bridge the gap between current market pricing and the strategic buyout potential, we use a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation. This model incorporates the established Zeus Capital benchmarks alongside the significant resource upgrade from the Gobi prospect.

1. The Core Valuation: Heron Field (Block XX)The baseline for any buyout is the Heron Field, which is already in production.Recoverable Resources: 25 MMbbl (P50 Base) to 60 MMbbl (Upside/3P).NPV10 (Zeus Base): Zeus Capital previously modeled a Risked Net Asset Value (NAV) of 8.3p. This includes a high "geological chance of success" (GCoS) for Heron but heavily discounts future exploration.

Unrisked NAV: Zeus’s unrisked figure of 23.3p assumes the full development of the 60 MMbbl upside at current oil prices (approx. $75–$80 Brent).Buyout Logic (The 8.6p Floor):A strategic buyer typically pays for "Proven + Probable" (2P) reserves. At a standard industry acquisition cost of $5.00 to $7.00 per barrel in the ground:$$60\text{ MMbbl} \times \$6.00 = \$360\text{ million total value}$$Adjusting for the 1.86B share count and converting to GBP:Result: ~£160M / 1.86B = 8.6p per share.

2. The Multiplier: Gobi Prospect (150% Larger than Heron)The Gobi prospect (including Gobi Bear-1) is the "basin-opener." If Gobi holds 150% more oil than Heron, we are looking at an additional 90 MMbbl to 150 MMbbl of potential recoverable resource.ComponentResource (Est. Recoverable)Val. at $6/bblPer Share (1.86B shares)Heron (Proven/Probable)60 MMbbl$360M (£280M)8.6pGobi (Exploration Upside)90 MMbbl$540M (£420M)12.9pTOTAL (Combined)150 MMbbl$900M (£700M)21.5p

Exactly Proquo - and I'm sure the USD Billions earmarked for the Mongolia Renewable sector are more indicative of prospects going forward, than sSockMaiden's inane, spam posting. Atb

The company are producing now, with professional resource estimates & a clear strategy to majorly upscale production! It's about viewing the investment opportunity now & looking forward!

Have a good evening

200K UOG shares (or thereabouts) and may very well offload tomorrow, to put into my other stock. Agree with you about no need to mention it by name.