Member Info for SeisNav

Strange, you were a retired medical doctor when you were using the AdriaanZA username!

Sorry for calling out your lies.

Unfortunately he bought them at 18p 😁

" Additional revenue should be 600 additional revenue x 36000 in low basket price case scenario and 800 additional revenue x 36000 in high basket case scenario, instead of one scenario with 386 additional revenue. What do I see wrong and hope the yes voters can assist me to understand this better."

This is completely wrong. I have all the data for metal prices, PGM split for the last few years and I can tell you that the numbers they quote for additional revenue are totally realistic.

Honestly some of the garbage being spouted on here today in an attempt to convince people to vote no, most likely so the culprits can make a quick profit and get out, leaving actual shareholders facing a dying business model in South Africa and dilution to fund the Zambian expansion.

Nevertogiveup,

Are you deliberately stating the facts incorrectly? The Northam JV next to Inyoni is no longer available, they are filling their capacity with own feed. The new JV is on the Northern limb, closer to Thutse. You would know that if you had read the circular.

So you can't justify the "huge profits" that you clam. Then it's better not to make such claims.

Nevertogiveup. Have you done any calculations to justify the 5 years of "huge profits" on PGM's? Can you forecast what the PGM basket will be next year or even next month? What about the overheads in South Africa? What about the huge interest payments that are weighing on the profit margin? What about the inevitable dilution that would be required to scale up in Zambia?

"Are we going to use the funds from this sale to fund the LWP alone now?"

Sirboring, if you can read the integrated report then why can't you read the RNS's? It say's quite clearly that they are looking for a partner to fund US$25m for the LWP. Funds are needed to develop the other projects as stated.

Roan is only one part of the business. The other two parts, the LWP and small scale mines are majority owned and over time the production will dwarf what Roan produces. I would say the risk of remaining in SA is actually considerably higher than going all in on Zambia. SA has an expiry date on it that we didn't know about until recently. I'll be voting in favour of the sale because I think it's not just the best option, realistically it's the only option.

I think you're missing the point HD. One of the major chrome contracts is gone, the other with the same company expires in 2027 and may not be renewed. That leaves Jubilee with a big problem if they can't replace those contracts. Inyoni will be running down its PGM stockpile plus whatever tailings they have left. Then we are reliant on Thutse, which is far from Inyoni and which is capital heavy and low margin. It's not a good position to be in.

Knee, in case you're not aware, the majority of the industry was loss making on PGM's, they were relying on co-products like chrome and gold to keep operating at a profit. Jubilee is no different.

In capital letters too... maybe it's just a co-incidence eh? 😉

I think Leon has either played down or underestimated the amount of work that would be required to get Munkoyo up to a decent production rate. There's a lot of infrastructure in terms of road and bridge building that has been done, you can see that here: https://tinyurl.com/2tjc9hhf

That's about 6km of road they had to build to connect to the nearest main road to Kabwe. They have also shifted huge amounts of lower grade material in order to create a proper open pit rather than the steep sided pit that was there before.

Once the central processing module is in place, at least it means that any future mines can be monetised more rapidly because you can immediately upgrade the lower grade 'waste'.

The good thing about Grovenor is it's already close to main roads and other infrastructure so (hopefully) it should be quicker to ramp up than Munkoyo has been.

I think thats a fair assessment Ardbeggar. Essentially they missed the boat in South Africa. They could have invested the earnings from 2021 into a chrome mine rather than using the cash to fund the Zambian venture and then we might have been in a much stronger position to fund our own growth. As it is, unless they can replace the lost chrome tonnes it's a case of diminishing returns, using up the PGM stockpiles to feed Inyoni until they run out, then we have PGM processing at Inyoni but PGM concentrate far away at Thutse... less than ideal. Realistically I don't think there's much of a choice to be made when you look at the facts. At least the driver of future growth in Zambia will be majority owned by Jubilee rather than being at the mercy of third party contracts. Munkoyo was bought for US$1.5m, if it starts to produce at the level they are forecasting then it will look like a very good deal in a few years. Still lots of questions to be answered on Zambia though.

Chester, a few things:

There is a second chrome contract for 500,000 tonnes due to reach maturity in 2027, it's with the same company who decided not to renew the first contract and the implication is that this one would also not be renewed (not stated outright). That would leave Jubilee with just over 1m tonnes/ year.

The original Northam JV at Inyoni is no longer an option as they are fully using their capacity to process own material of a higher grade than Jubilee's.

The second JV is on the Northern Limb, closer to Thutse. Transporting PGM concentrate all that way for processing is likely not cost effective so what do they do with the stockpiles at Inyoni? Unless there's spare capacity elsewhere near Inyoni it would require them to build another plant.

Agreed Gray, the interest on the debt facility was very detrimental and the wild swings in chrome price can result in paying for chrome RoM at a higher chrome concentrate price than when you come to sell, reducing margin.

They still need to pay for copper RoM to feed Roan so it would be good to know that scale of that, but over time Roan becomes a significantly less important part of the business with most production coming from majority owned mines.

I'd like to see some progress on a LWP deal ahead of the vote and also some drilling results at Munkoyo. They must have some by now even if they are preliminary. I'm going to start compiling a list of questions.... it could be a long one!

I don't think my take is any more valid than many others on here Bottomsup but anyway I'll have to read it though in full again when I'm more awake.

Here's the link to the full version of the circular with chairmans letter for anyone who didn't see it:

https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Proposed-disposal-of-the-South-African-Chrome-and-PGM-Operations.pdf

I think the debt going with the buyer is the one thing many were concerned about, hence the positive market reaction. Now we will the the short term profit takers jumping into action. I have dry powder for when they are done!

I realise the circular is more concerned with the rationale for selling the SA business but there are plenty of unanswered questions that need addressing regarding Zambia. Hopefully they will be honestly answered at the meeting.

Not overly impressed with the phased payments either but it is what it is. If the Institutions are generally in favour (presumably after some due diligence) then I think it's highly likely to go through.

20 odd posts in the time it took me to fully read the circular… maybe read it through completely before making comment? Just a thought!

Keep hanging on Dansdad!

Are you 'Dansdad'?