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Thats just copied from the FT data which is generally slow to update. Fidelity sold up around March and Jupiter before that. I wouldn't put too much faith in those figures as being current.

PGM basket still trending upwards with platinum reaching new highs and rhodium bouncing back a little.

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/65svutjooc7o9fsogbpd8/SLP-PGM-and-chrome-prices.png?rlkey=qfo4m78vmd7infa1tob1vtlhd&st=v9krc69l&dl=0

As primarily a PGM producer, the share price will always be linked to the PGM basket price as we have witnessed across the industry. The game changer is the addition of chrome. Generally the PGM and chrome prices tend to work in opposite cycles due to the way to the two are linked. That will help mitigate price fluctuations and hopefully lead to a more stable earnings and share price.

Here's the latest PGM and chrome price chart, with markings for each quarter:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ejydzzaigdqvel0kuld6z/PGM-basket-and-chrome-prices.png?rlkey=t7uyc0yv01zgakdw997pwaolm&st=6apm6pnw&dl=0

and here's the longer term charts for each of the metals:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/z9y75mgcw8n5tu1dqx120/Metals-prices.png?rlkey=xcxq3l650ep3qduuu9lccsn1s&st=3cxdo9zu&dl=0

Note in particular the price of cobalt hydroxide which has reacted to the export ban by the DRC. That ban has been extended to early October when it will be replaced by an export quota system. It will be interesting to see what happens once that comes into effect.

I recently sent some questions to Jonny and received some very candid answers. I'm not going to repeat them here due to confidentiality but I don't think I'm speaking out of turn when I say that the company reviews production on a quarterly basis so any discussion on a switch to cobalt hydroxide production could happen then. No guarantees of course but at US$32,000 / tonne right now it must be looking more attractive than it has at any time since before they stopped production.

You said it will take "5 Roans" to fill Sable's 12,000 tonne capacity... now you are saying something else. The LWP was never intended to supply Sable. They are not building more Roans, it's simpler, cheaper 'front end' modules. Try at least to get the facts right when you are trying to talk the price down.

Nobody said the production is going to suddenly surge to 25,000 tonnes, it's going to take time to ramp up as the modules come online.

If you are interested in the details as you say then why don't you write to JMK and ask? I'm not going to bother replying to you again as you clearly don't want to listen.

I think you are missing the point. In order to finance the purchase of RoM they have to have a very large loan facility. That costs money and significantly reduces the profit margin on chrome. It means that chrome concentrate price has to be much higher in order to make a decent profit. Thats what they had for much of 2023/2024, with prices averaging close to US$300 / tonne. Just at the time that the new Thutse modules came into full production, the price of chrome dropped significantly. They had paid out a high price for the RoM because of the high price of concentrate but now they were getting a much lower price for the concentrate so the margin was squeezed. They still have to pay the interest payments on the loan, killing the profit margin.

Prices have recovered since then but still quite a bit lower than the US$300 / tonne they were getting before so margin is still not that great. They have now lost one of the tolling agreements with the other one likely to go the same way in 2027. Then they have PGM processing plant running down stocks and the PGM concentrates they are stockpiling at Thutse without ready access to a processing plant which is quite a long distance away. That's why it makes sense to sell now and move on. That doesn't even consider the significant hike in power costs in South Africa next year.

You need to lay off the AI a bit HarmProf.

If you read the circular, they make it pretty clear that profits for FY25 will be more or less in line with the previous year, with PGM's averaging a bit higher and chrome averaging a bit lower and copper still to get off the ground.

FY26 so far is a different matter, with PGM's averaging ~US$450 / PGM ounce higher than in FY25 and chrome average about the same as FY25 at US$270 / tonne. Copper production is starting to improve as well so overall it should be a better picture financially at the end of H1. Of course it depends how long it takes to get the deal through but we should benefit from elevated PGM basket for most if not all H1.

Justgiveup, they are getting ~US$90m for the South African assets. Are you saying that all of the assets in Zambia are worthless? That is clearly not the case. Even you must be able to see that.

A concentrator has value regardless of how much it's currently producing.

A refinery has value regardless of how much it's currently producing.

A copper mine has value regardless of how much it's currently producing.

NAV isn't defined by what the current copper production is or what the margin is.

The net asset value of what is being sold is around US$90m and the market cap is US$95m so very little to no value is currently being assigned to the Zambian operations which is clearly ridiculous when we have a the Roan concentrator processing mixed oxides/sulphides which is unique in the country as far as we are aware, plus the Sable refinery, plus all of the other assets.

You're a fine one to talk about integrity HarmProf, after claiming variously to be a doctor, a teacher, a statistical guru, a company executive and turnaround specialist... what next, maybe astronaut?

Interesting research report out today from Edison. They restate their valuation at 152.9p.

Https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ip6wzdyhcheclr79q7k8j/Metals-prices-12-09-25.png?rlkey=cybwc7tjbvtszu5x6egipwzlu&st=4sc60rmc&dl=0

Looking strong across the board. We should be in for a pretty decent first quarter with chrome slowly continuing to improve and PGM's remaining strong. The increase in Roan production should take care of some of the overheads that have recently had to be soaked up by the SA operations.

Https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/d9as3emsx9a8xcgxjbzj0/SLP-PGM-basket-and-chrome-prices.png?rlkey=02fctg1zbrw2t32jluy5a1628&st=j6frm9tm&dl=0

Chrome still gradually increasing, PGM's remain strong this week.

Ardbeggar, have a look in the latest presentation for the SLP prill split, it's listed there somewhere.

I recently bought shares in SLP so that I can maintain exposure to the PGM and chrome market. Honestly the difference in approach between SLP and JLP is quite noticeable. The full year results and presentation gave a wealth of information, the kind of thing that we have been crying out for Jubilee to do as well. I appreciate that SLP is a steady business which has been operating for many years whereas Jubilee is still very much in the growth phase but I hope that going forward we can expect to see that same kind of approach here too.

The presentation shows an estimated EBITDA for FY2026 of around US$60m (FY2025 was US$29.3m) based on an average 4E PGM basket price of US$1809 and chrome concentrate average price of US$220 / tonne.

The current PGM and chrome prices are well above that assumed price with Q1 average 4E PGM of ~US$1960 / ounce and chrome ~US$268 / tonne.

Todays prices are even higher with 4E PGM currently estimated at US$2,030 / ounce and chrome at ~US$275 / tonne.

They should comfortably exceed the estimated EBITDA for Q1 assuming there are no significant issues cropping during the quarter.

I did some rough calculations of my own and came up with a gross profit for the year of between US$60-70m based on current prices and costs.

"The speculators received a clear signal from the director's purchase that there would be no news for 30 days from the date of purchase"

Is this true? I thought the 30 / 60 day rule just applied to financial results being released. Surely news can pop up at any time, as long as the insiders were not aware of it at the time of purchase then it shouldn't matter as far as I can see.