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35,000 tpm throughput x 1.5% grade x 63% recovery = 330 tpm copper units.

HarmProf/AdriaanZA,

If you paid attention to what was said in the meeting, PGM's are subsidising chrome.... in other words chrome is loss making at US$265/tonne just as I suggested it was a couple of days ago. Maybe you need to steer clear of financial matters as well. There is no future for Jubilee in processing other peoples chrome unless average prices are substantially higher and or PGM basket is substantially higher. Even then they will struggle to keep getting contracts because companies are taking processing in house. Forget it, it's over.

Nice to see JMK owning up to some of the failings (on the companies behalf) in recent years around constantly changing strategy and delivery of message. He seems to have had a very positive influence in putting the company on a more stable course. I suspected the departure of Ollie and Tracy Kerr from the board was more about cost saving and right sizing and that seems to have been confirmed.

I would like to have seen more information about the timeline for implementation in Zambia and some indication on profitability over the coming couple of years but I guess that was unlikely without results in the market.

I remain happy that my decision to vote for the sale was the correct one.

They were estimating a 5 fold increase in chrome profits from Thutse when the chrome price was above US$300 / tonne. With the price at US$265 / tonne that is no longer true. Leon has always been reluctant to give any details about the margins on chrome and now they have to finally tell the truth, chrome is only profitable at above the current level.

The fact is if they had stuck to the original tolling model, the business would have been loss making in recent times, with PGM’s at such a low level. They HAD to expand into higher margin chrome in order to keep the business profitable but that only worked because the price was so high. Now the price has dropped chrome is no longer very profitable (if at all) but thankfully the PGM basket has taken up the slack. That’s the one advantage of producing both as they work in opposite cycles.

I guess it must have passed me by that there was a meeting planned today... not to worry, at least I found out beforehand and not afterwards!

There's a corporate update scheduled for 11am today on Investor Meet Company... did I miss something?

From the circular:

"The Resolution will be proposed as an ordinary resolution, meaning it will require a simple majority of the votes cast to be in favour in order for it to be passed."

So I guess if you don't vote, it doesn't count either way.

After a good think about the various factors again this morning I have cast my vote in favour of the sale (for what it's worth).

My reasons for voting yes:

The forecast EBITDA for chrome / PGM's in FY2025 and FY2026 remains pretty much unchanged from FY2024. They are expecting the company to bump along making a small profit if prices remain where they are.

Despite a rise in the PGM basket which on the face of it seems significant, this is largely cancelled out by the fall in chrome price. The inference is that at US$265/tonne, the chrome business is barely profitable, large interest payments are eating up what little profit there is.

You could argue that it's worth holding on to the business and hoping for a significant rise in metals prices but what little profit there may be will not subsidise the expansion in Zambia, leading to a high likelihood of significant dilution in order to move that forward. Not something I'm prepared to accept at the current share price.

Relying on 3rd party contracts for chrome is looking increasingly unsustainable and we have already lost one significant contract with another due to expire in early 2027.

More companies are moving into the chrome sector, making competition for contracts tougher with margins already very slim.

Electricity prices are significantly up, squeezing already slim margins.

In short, Jubilee had great IP but failed to capitalise on it by not securing assets in South Africa which would have guaranteed a much healthier margin and a sustainable business. Short of another massive rise in PGM's I just don't see any way for the South African Business to thrive.

Obviously there are many questions to be answered in Zambia but right now to me it looks like the only realistic chance of growing the business and the share price. It's either that or I cut my losses and move on.

If you think about it, a US$5 / tonne drop in chrome margin (for example) on 2 million tonnes of chrome would result in a drop in earnings of US$10m. To make up that loss it would require the PGM margin to increase by ~ US$275 / ounce based on 36,000 ounces. It just shows how much chrome dominates when you are producing that much.

"The FY24 earnings base is a highly depressed period"

Actually the price of chrome concentrate averaged US$293 (based on my numbers) during FY24, the highest it's ever been according to the data I have.

The average chrome price in H1FY25 was US$279

The average chrome price in H2FY25 was US$262

The average chrome price for Q1FY26 to date is US$266

Chrome has been the main driver of earnings in recent times with PGM's loss making in 2024. Yes PGM basket has increased but chrome price has dropped. I don't think it's as simple as saying take H1 EBITDA and double it. Jubilee says that the net effect of the price movements equates to FY25 EBITDA being similar to FY24... I can't say if thats the case or not.

Yes the tailings projects are separate from the LWP. Jubilee acquired the rights to process tailings dumps in Luanshya and Kitwe areas shortly after moving into Zambia. At the time, the plan was to build concentrators like Roan at those locations but that plan had to be scrapped when they came to the conclusion that getting the stable power and water supplies the government had promised was unlikely to happen anytime soon. Instead they chose to focus on the Roan site which has enough space to expand and now has power and water.

You can find details of the tailings projects on page 136 of the 2024 integrated annual report.

I had a look at the mining license cadastre and the license that was previously held by Star Tanganika for the Luanshya tailings has been replaced by a Chinese company, Huayi Investments Ltd, so I suspect that these tailings could be the ones that have been disposed of. They were lower grade than the Kitwe tailings so it makes sense that they might have decided to dispose of them and focus on Kitwe.

If you listen to the last Roast interview Leon mentions the LWP deal and it sounds like IRH wanted to just have the optionality without actually progressing it immediately, whereas Jubilee wanted to get on with it. That's why they let the deal lapse so they could re-negotiate. It doesn't sound like IRH would be involved in any deal in the future if that was the case.

Horizon Mining are the owners of the Kitwe tailings that we have a JV with. You can see an interview with one of the Horizon team here:

https://youtu.be/VGVgK0v-3Vs

They were in Cape Town looking for financing to build a tailings processing plant back in 2020. The focus seems to have been on cobalt hydroxide production from the tailings. I think this project is still on the cards at some point because it was listed on the H1 results presentation: "Kitwe Tailings project R&D

programme progressing towards developing a viable process solution". This may or may not include glycine leaching.

Just had a little look to see if I could spot any activity and it looks like an area has been cleared close to where Arc drilled at Fwiji. No idea if it's Anglo or not but it's possible given Arc said that Fwiji was a target they were interested in. Without knowing where to look it's difficult to spot any other signs of activity but thought I'd share anyway.

They cannot "switch between chrome and PGM's". They can choose to process RoM which is higher in chrome content or higher in PGM content, depending on the profit margin. They have no way of processing the PGM tailings apart from Inyoni. To date the capacity of Inyoni has been fully taken up, hence the stockpiles. Now that we have lost one chrome contract they may need to start processing from the stockpiles to make up the difference.

"Arc Minerals has no assets of substance in Zambia other than its 20% effective indirect interest in Handa Resources Limited and the Directors confirm that the Company's licences, joint venture interests and operations remain unaffected."

A bit of good news at last!

The debt is taken on by the buyer, it doesn't come out of the US$90m payments

Jubilee still are suffocating with those debt repayments. It seems that to make a half way decent margin on chrome, the price has to be near record highs which is concerning. What happens if the chrome price drops and doesn't recover? We could be in a situation where they are not covering their interest payments. Yes we are making a reasonable margin on PGM's now that prices have recovered but it's not huge.

With one significant tolling contract gone and another with the same company due to expire early in 2027, that leaves the chrome business heavily reliant on Thutse which is quite a long distance from Inyoni. Then you have a situation where Inyoni is winding down processing PGM stockpiles and no significant PGM processing capacity at Thutse... it all starts to look a bit messy.

I was very anti the sale until I saw the reality of the situation, now I see it as a necessity and indeed an opportunity to move ahead with a business where we actually own the majority of the resource and can make a much better margin from it. Roan has obviously been a disaster so far but is now in production, if the front end module (DMS) is performing as they suggested it is then there's no reason why they can't roll out carbon copies of it at the LWP and elsewhere... we just need to see the numbers to prove it. If you haven't already submitted the question, I'd suggest you do ask them to give out some numbers for the DMS and the milling and floatation circuit so we are under no illusions about what is going on.

Https://tinyurl.com/yeyw3ssf

PGM basket and chrome prices both up slightly this week.

Cobalt Hydroxide continues to climb in comparison to cobalt metal price. One of the questions I've already submitted for the meeting is to clarify if cobalt production still plays a part in Jubilee's future plans (at the right price).

Strange, you were a retired medical doctor when you were using the AdriaanZA username!

Sorry for calling out your lies.