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I'm always of the opinion that too much information is better than not enough, so in that spirit I give you my latest graph! This shows daily copper and PGM basket prices along with the share price. I've also added some of the key RNS updates which have affected the share price along the bottom. The data is all correctly to scale.

https://tinyurl.com/4zxsy8f6

I think this plot is quite informative. Up until now I hadn't plotted copper and PGM prices along with the share price and I was surprised to see that the copper price was having a pronounced affect on the share price until quite recently. I would say that in the last 6 months or so copper is having much less of an influence than before, which of course you might expect given the recent problems in Zambia.

My question is, what do you think the current share price should be, based on this data and assuming that all is now progressing OK at Roan and Sable? Personally I think we should be up around 12p or so.

Presumably they applied for it like Anglo American did, but apparently they got their application in first by a couple of days.

Isn’t Alby Tross your Twitter deramping account Ella? You’ve been talking down Arc Minerals for years, must be irksome having to mention them in a positive light with TYM likely to pick up an interesting license on the edge of their JV. If Anglo American consider it important enough to apply for the license they may want to buy it from TYM. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more reaction to it here but maybe people aren’t aware of how significant it could be.

“ At least then, we'd have been able to move on.”

I presume you mean at least then YOU would have been able to move on. It’s a bit presumptuous to speak for everyone else! Personally I would have been highly disappointed to see a sell off of the assets we have for 7-8p.

Https://tinyurl.com/4swe5x3k

For anyone who's interested, I downloaded and plotted the data for the PGM basket to see how the individual elements contribute to the basket price over time. I've used the same percentage split that I use in the earnings calculations but haven't applied any costs (refinery, transport, etc). It's obviously not going to be totally accurate because the split will vary over time but it gives a reasonable indication.

At it's peak, rhodium was contributing in the region of 65% of our basket. Now its down to about 30%, the same as platinum. I hadn't appreciated that palladium has not really changed very much percentage wise, despite the drop in value. Iridium contributes almost as much as palladium at the moment which was a surprise.

As you can see the two main drivers of the basket over the last few years have been platinum (by virtue of it making up ~60% of the PGM product) and rhodium (by virtue of its price).

Https://tinyurl.com/2pbmvd3s

Application validated in key area next to the Arc Minerals / Anglo American JV. One of the licenses Anglo were also applying for. Has TYM pipped them to it?

I’d rather go on facts rather than wild speculation such as the share price being affected by ‘share confetti’. It wasn’t that long ago that I posted about the strong link between PGM basket price and out share price:

“ I’ve posted this before, quite a while a go but as the rhodium price seems to be rising again I thought it was worth sharing again. This plots percentage change in JLP share price and XRH0 (a fund that tracks the rhodium price) over the last three years. It just emphasises how much our share price is dominated by the PGM basket still. Once we start to generate more income from copper and cobalt, hopefully that should decouple us a bit more from variations in the basket price. In the short term, as long as rhodium keeps increasing I think we will see it reflected in the share price.

https://tinyurl.com/5ykmbk3u”

Even over the last week or two there has been a very strong correlation between the rising and then falling rhodium price and our share price. Yes there will be other factors playing in but as far as I’m concerned the main factor is as already stated. On the positive side I don’t believe the market is factoring in anything much for copper at the moment. If we can produce strong copper numbers over the next quarter then I think we might see a bit of a re-rate.

Https://auctusmetals.com/eskoms-winter-energy-crisis-forecasts-big-decline-in-south-africas-platinum-output/

A very in-depth report on the power situation in South Africa and how its likely to impact PGM production. It makes for very sobering reading. The one positive is mentioned at the end, with the big mining companies taking matters into their own hands and implementing renewable energy projects, which will take some of the strain off the ESKOM grid.

Nice to see Anglo American’s head of government relations in Arc’s latest tweet. It certainly has the look of a deal that’s already done and dusted. I’m sure Nicks choice of image was quite deliberate 👍

I think we can all ignore Dumb and Dumber. They don’t believe what they are saying any more than I do. Ella10 has a LONG history here of deramping the share and Peggy is just the village idiot. Sold his shares at the bottom of the market and now wants to provide insight to everyone who knew better!

Https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/ambitious-eu-battery-regulations-pose-automotive-challenges/

This is likely to create opportunities for a premium cobalt product in Europe.

Squeal piggy squeal!

Test

A damp 🐙 for the little 🐖

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Gold is roughly 80 times more valuable than silver so 10.11 g/tonne silver is roughly equal to 0.13 g/tonne of gold. The gold equivalent is then roughly 1.22 + 0.13 = 1.35 g/tonne.

"68.347Mt @ 1.22g/t Au and 10.11g/t Ag (1.31g/t AuEq1), containing 2.686 Moz of gold and 22.210 Moz of silver (2.868 Moz of gold equivalent) using a 0.3g/t Au cut-off"

The figures in brackets are the totals. It is badly worded. The funny thing is if you INCREASED the cutoff grade you could still satisfy the 1.5 million ounces @ 2.5 g/tonne, as I showed in the plot of high grade reserves!

ATD have a look at the table in gold at the bottom of page 2, the Au eq total is 1.31 g/ tonne. You can't add the silver because its already included.

Https://tinyurl.com/3jx4n77d

Here's an updated topographic map, showing the western extent of the Kabompo Dome, with the mines and license areas marked. I've also added the African Pioneer licenses (in blue) for anyone who's interested. AA also explored those licenses as part of their wider package of licenses back in the day. I do think they are worth keeping an eye on to see if FQM come up with anything significant during this years drilling. Having said that I'd much rather be invested in Arc at the moment!

I've included the topographic map because I think it's significant. You can see there's a ridge which runs from Kamoa-Kakula in the North to Arc's licenses in the South (the white areas of topography). The fracture zones which come off that ridge feed down into our major target areas. Similarly on the East side the ridge runs from Tenke Fungurume in the North to Kansanshi in the South.

Ignore my previous post, I was just looking at the high grade subsets rather than the overall JORC. Never do anything in the morning without having a cup of tea first!

I plotted out the resource data and added the target of 1.5 million ounces at 2.5 g/tonne (AuEq) in green. I’d say they have at least equalled the target and possibly exceeded it. I’d put it somewhere between 1.5-1.6 million ounces at 2.5 g/tonne. So potentially 100,000 ounces above target or AUD 200,000. There’s still plenty of time for that to be increased of course.

https://tinyurl.com/9xtfcy3n