Member Info for SeisNav

Valorem, who bought the Casa project, has changed name to Avanti Gold Corp. I’m guessing this announcement relates to the outstanding amount due to Arc. (It was quoted as $1.25m (Canadian presumably) in stock in the RNS). Those $0.26 shares have recently been trading as high as $0.80 to $1.00. Not a bad return!

“ AVANTI GOLD ANNOUNCES DEBT SETTLEMENT
Updated: Apr 21
February 17, 2023

VALOREM RESOURCES INC. (CSE: VALU) (Frankfurt: X37) (the “Company”) announces that it intends to settle debt (the “Debt Settlement”) in the amount of $1,084,144.77 owed by the Company to certain creditors by the issuance of 4,169,786 common shares (each, a “Share”) of the Company at a deemed price of $0.26 per Share. The Debt Settlement is subject to the entry into a debt settlement agreement with the creditor and receipt of all regulatory approvals.

All securities issued in connection with the Debt Settlement will be subject to a statutory hold period expiring four months and one day after issuance of the securities.”

https://copperbeltkatangamining.com/zambias-cobalt-production-reaches-251-tons-in-2022/

Just to put in perspective our current capacity of 1,500 tonnes / year.

Yes I just noticed that myself, it could well be employees / contactors / advisors.

Mikie, Phosa only has 500,000 outstanding.

I think you’re talking about the warrants Mikie. Most of those have been issued already, I think there are 750,000 at 3.4p which expire next month, then the only other ones are 4 million at 13.0p.

These are options, most likely Leon’s options. I don’t think anyone else has a strike price as low as that.

Higgin your attempts to talk down the management will have no effect on the share price. Please don’t clutter this board up with your nonsense.

I don’t really understand your capex numbers Charles. As far as I’m aware it cost US$20.8 million to build Roan and a further US$27.2 million to buy and refurbish Sable. That’s about US$48 million for the whole Southern operation. I don’t think any numbers have been released for the expansion of Roan yet, as they are still working on the designs. Leon did say in the analyst’s call that he would expect the expansion to come in at less than half of the initial build costs. There have clearly been some extra costs involved in upgrading the water and power infrastructure but from memory that was only US$2 million or so.

So far this year Inyoni has been averaging a little over 9,000 PGM ounces per quarter which clearly is quite a bit lower than the name plate capacity. If the number is about the same for the current quarter then I would certainly like to know what the reason for the shortfall is. I’ve already emailed the company about that but as usual I did not get any response.

Having said that I expect them to push ahead with expansion on the Eastern Limb at the first opportunity. The cost to build a new chrome facility is very small (Leon quoted about US$5m I think) and there are big advantages to doing so. If we can process the material at source rather than trucking it over to the west then we can save a lot on transport costs (the last quoted number I saw was about US$200 per ounce). The concentrate could then either be stockpiled for later processing at the new PGM facility or transported more cost effectively to Inyoni for processing. We will also generate additional chrome revenue in the meantime.

I think you would be in the minority in being thankful that we are unable to complete on the Northern refinery at the moment. I would certainly wish to see them getting on with it as soon as possible. Leon has already said that the refinery would be paid off over many years using debt. The longer it takes to complete the deal the longer we have to wait for the refurbishment to be completed. There’s no point in expanding Roan if we don’t have a working refinery to take advantage of it.

OMG!!!! Let’s call the whole thing off eh? :-D

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/anglo-to-fund-education-initiative-close-to-coppercobalt-exploration-activities-in-zambia-2023-05-02

https://tinyurl.com/5n97yxec

Here's an updated map of the dome with significant mines marked on it. I've added the footprint of the Ivanhoe deposits, Kamoa-Kakula and the Makako discovery. I just thought it was worth highlighting just how close the known deposits are in that area, so there is a precedent for that.... it's not out of the question that we could have more than one deposit within our license area. No guarantees of course ;-)

This is a very informative read if you haven’t already seen it:

https://tinyurl.com/2uk4yrnc

It’s the Johnson Matthey PGM market report for 2022, lots of information on the uses of each element and supply / demand information. There is a new report due to be published in a couple of weeks. That could be very interesting to see what they are forecasting for the year ahead, especially with regard to the power issues in South Africa. Any sign of tightening supply of rhodium in particular could send prices rocketing again!

Just to emphasise why our licenses are so well positioned: https://tinyurl.com/3x2hc9nm

The yellow bands indicate current mines on both the DRC and Zambian side of the Kabompo Dome. Of course there are no guarantees that we have a tier 1 deposit but when you combine location with geophysical / geochemical data and drill results... it's hard to argue about the potential!

That should have been “can’t see” obviously!

“ The other side of the Kabompo domes region today houses three major multi-billion-dollar copper operations. We are convinced that our side of the dome houses at least one or more tier 1 deposits.”

If there are tier 1 deposits still to be identified on our side of the dome (and I think there almost certainly are), we have some of the key licenses both in terms of location on the lower slopes of the dome, where almost every other deposit has been discovered, but also in terms of geology. Not every license is created equal on the Copperbelt. I honestly can see any better ones than ours which still remain largely untested by the drill bit.

I’ve posted this before, quite a while a go but as the rhodium price seems to be rising again I thought it was worth sharing again. This plots percentage change in JLP share price and XRH0 (a fund that tracks the rhodium price) over the last three years. It just emphasises how much our share price is dominated by the PGM basket still. Once we start to generate more income from copper and cobalt, hopefully that should decouple us a bit more from variations in the basket price. In the short term, as long as rhodium keeps increasing I think we will see it reflected in the share price.

https://tinyurl.com/5ykmbk3u

I read on a shareholder message board the other day that the transfer of shares is expected to happen in June, with shareholders in TMNA receiving 1 TIO share for every 3.3 TMNA shares held. If that is the case then we should soon hold 9,00,000 TIO shares. The interesting thing is, if you work out what each TMNA share should actually be worth it’s US$0.66, whereas they are trading at US$0.39. So anyone buying TMNA now would immediately be making a profit once the deal finalises. I wonder if that’s the transaction Nick was talking about… maybe Remy wants to buy more Tingo!

TIO has gone up very quickly from less than a dollar a share to over 2 dollars. At less than a dollar they (MICT) were at risk of loosing the NASDAQ listing, when it was confirmed that this wouldn’t happen it shot up in value. The shareholders still see it as massively undervalued so I wouldn’t worry too much about the current price (unless we need the cash!).

https://www.zccm-ih.com.zm/2023/04/27/industry-news-zambian-copper-and-cobalt-to-drive-the-global-shift-to-electric-vehicles/

Maximus, have a look at page 7 of the research note, where it explains the process. Yes I think you are correct in that the cobalt is bled off and stored for later processing.

https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FN-JLP-091221-reissue.pdf

I’ve had a look at the numbers again and it looks like the basket price I am estimating, based on the numbers from the WH Ireland note in Dec 2021, is now quite a way off from the reported figure. My estimate was US$1,590 / oz but the figure quoted in the last update is US$1,297 / oz. Either the assumption for the PGM prill split is no longer accurate, or, maybe more likely, the refinery costs have increased quite a bit, so the ‘Net Smelter Pay’ percentages in the sheet are now too high.

Anyway, I’ve updated the sheet to use the basket price reported in Q3 which should be more accurate. Obviously that has quite an effect on the bottom line so my revised estimate is just under US$26 million. Hopefully we have a strong end to the quarter with PGM prices looking more positive at the moment.
https://tinyurl.com/55fzxzr7
https://tinyurl.com/25bhub3z

Actually when I look at that cobalt calculation that again it should probably be
Tonnes of cobalt metal * ((LME price * percentage paid)- production cost)) = US$1,017,500
I didn’t include it in the numbers anyway but better to get it correct.

Just ignore my previous calculations until I’ve had a good look though them!

Yes the 28% was just for my reference I didn’t use it in the calculation. I just used:
Tonnes of cobalt metal * (LME price - production cost) * percentage paid
So 110 * (35,000 - 17,000) * 0.75 = US$1,485,000

I think Leon said they pay typically 68-75% of LME price, I guess depending on purity. I figured that if ours meets European purity standards we would hopefully be near the top of that range.

I’ll take another look at the PGM calculations when I’m more awake, they always make things more difficult than they need to be! They are applying an average for both Inyoni and JV ounces produced to get the US$900 / ounce so I might have got that wrong, I’ll check.