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“ Don't want to seem too negative”

Why break the habit of a lifetime Caddy, you’ve been nothing but negative since you’ve been posting here! Your whole timeline is negative!

It looks like the PGM basket is starting to trend back upwards and the share price is reflecting that… slowly ticking up.

“ For too long this BB has been taken over with deramping”

*spits tea all over keyboard*

I suspect many shareholders are as confused as I was over the expected timeline for Roan, so I have gone through the RNS and the presentations to try and get a clearer picture. This is what I got:

From the RNS:
“The final phase of the Roan project ramp-up is scheduled for early April 2023 to complete the commercialisation of the Southern Copper Refining project expected during May 2023. Upon reaching commercial production, the Roan copper concentrator is expected to contribute 550 tonnes of copper per month to the production of Sable Refinery with a further 130 tonnes per month of copper from third party supplies.”

Commercialisation is when the budgeted throughput of copper (550 Tonnes / month) is reached. This isn’t the same as reaching name-plate capacity.

From the presentation:
Roan expected to reach 800+ Tonnes / month capacity “post the current period”

“We have a conservative number on Roan’s production profile to allow for some downtime during the upgrade.”

Upgrade of front end expected to be done within an 8 week period once it commences.

So what we might expect to hear next, during May, is that we have reached commercialisation. Because of the upgrade to the front end (an 8 week period approximately) there will be some reduction in capacity. I guess that’s why they are not expecting to reach full capacity during the current period. Leon said that there is some downtime already built in to the numbers.

Other upcoming items:
Waiting on the tax issue with previous refinery owner to be resolved. HH has committed to get this resolved during April. If that happens we should conclude and announce the deal soon after.

Speculation on my part but I believe the Mufulira S l a g project will be announced once the refinery acquisition has been completed. Obviously Leon can’t include this in any forecast until we have been officially awarded it but that would certainly have a big impact on future numbers.

Awaiting permitting to commence the construction of a new chrome plant on the Eastern Limb. Long lead items already ordered and ready to get going ASAP.

It’s funny that despite being continually corrected BushyTailed keeps on spouting the same misleading and inaccurate nonsense. I guess he’s running out of new angles to attack the company after all this time.

New investors can ignore anything he posts, most LTH’s already have him filtered!

According to my spreadsheet, we have access to 7M tonnes tailings @ 0.8% Cu (plus 3rd party supply) and 4M tonnes RoM @ >2.0% Cu. I trawled through all of the RNS’s a while back to get a picture of where we were at.

However we have already established that the grade is not all that critical as the material is pre-concentrated at the tailings dams to 2.0-2.5% Cu before transport to the concentrator.

Like someone’s been let loose with an etch-a-sketch!

This is bigger than just Jubilee… (from last year).

“ Mines and Mineral Development Minister Paul Kabuswe says talks between ERG Africa and some potential investors are advanced but that the asset will only reopen once processes and procedures are followed and completed.
Mr. Kabuswe tells Phoenix news that Chambishi metals is among the assets that need to be unlocked for job creation and to implement the memorandum of understanding on EV battery manufacturing with the democratic republic of Congo, hence the ongoing talks between ERG Africa, the owners of the plant and the interested investors.”

Thanks RedRoy, 14-16 months certainly makes sense for the Kitwe concentrator build and commissioning, based on Roan. I guess its pointless to ask any questions about the refinery until its confirmed that we have actually completed the acquisition.

Hello RedRoy,

I listened again to the investor presentation and Leon talks about a 14-16 month capitalisation and build program, I’m thinking that this would include the northern refinery and also the build of the second copper concentrator at Kitwe. Was this what you were referring to or was it mentioned elsewhere about commissioning and ramp up of the northern refinery?

I was going to write to the company to see if I could clarify that although it does state in the 20th March RNS:

“ The Company will provide further clarity on expected capital investment and updated timelines for the implementation of the Northern Refining Strategy at completion of the revised capital program expected by the end of the current reporting period.”

I think the resident metallurgy expert should maybe listen to the last presentation where most of the ‘concerns’ have already been addressed

Leon explains clearly in the Q&A that tailings dams are typically 0.5-0.7% Cu. This is upgraded on site to around 2.0-2.5% Cu before being fed into Roan. The output from Roan is > 11.0-12.0% Cu, that is what gets sent to Sable.

He also states that it’s not only the rate of material fed into Roan thats important but the type of material, which is important in maintaining a stable high grade output. The 550 tonnes / month of Cu is only an intermediate step, the actual capacity of Roan is “North of 800 tonnes / month” and that is the level they expect to reach eventually.

Ollie also made a point of stating that the delays we have had were NOT related to any technical or metallurgical issues which were previously unidentified.

I’d recommend everyone to listen again to the presentations on the website, particularly the Q&A section, I picked up a couple of things that I’d missed previously.

I know September is a while ago now but maybe he’s forgotten:

“ Project Roan has been successfully ramped up to MAINTAIN its design throughput rate of 110 tonnes per hour needed to produce the targeted copper concentrate for refining at the Sable Refinery”

Haha! I nearly spat my tea out! I’ve got him back on filter for a bit but it’s good to know I’ve got him worried. Maybe it was because I posted this on the HUM board:

https://tinyurl.com/2s4w563n

I thought they deserved to know what a snake they have over there, as he’s likely to turn on them too at some point!

The early copper production at Sable didn’t come from concentrate, it was from direct leaching of tailings, creating an intermediate product which can be sold for early revenue during the expansion. Leon has previously mentioned that they plan to do the same thing in the North. It’s a fair point that the refinery is a lot bigger than Sable, hard to say how much more work might be needed to re-commission it.

It’s very possible that they intend to start on the Mufulira s la g project once the refinery is up and running, that could happen concurrently with the expansion of Roan. That’s assuming they do secure the Chambishi Metals Refinery and it happens in a reasonable timeframe.

Obviously all speculation until we hear something official from Jubilee.

Leon had mentioned that the President had talked in the media about the refinery tax situation getting resolved in April. I’ve had a search for that and couldn’t see anything directly mentioning it, however there is this from 17th March:

https://www.times.co.zm/?p=123339

“ The Head of State has also assured Copperbelt residents that Chambishi Metals whose full operations have been on halt for more than two years will soon resume to revive the economic fortunes of the region.”

The rest of the article is behind a paywall but I’m guessing that this is what Leon was referring to and if so it pretty much proves that Jubilee is looking to buy Chambishi Metals which then sets the ball rolling on the Mufulira s l a g project.

Hey I’m not hear to convince anyone one way or the other (unlike some of the less genuine posters here) just to share information. If you chose to stay invested or not is none of my business, in the end we are all responsible for our own investment decisions.

Yes there are questions to be answered;
Can Roan produce 700+ tonnes / month of material for Sable on a regular basis?
What will be the capacity of the expanded Roan?
What is the status of the Northern Refinery(s) and when will we be able to close the deal?
All valid questions which I hope we will get answers to over the coming months. I will be writing to the company next week with some questions of my own.

With the Northern expansion, a lot depends on the government resolving the tax situation with the current refinery owner, I’ll be watching the news this month to see if there is any sign of that happening. Yes it could continue to drag on but from what I’ve seen of HH he gets things done and I’m hopeful of a timely resolution with this. If I’m correct about Chambishi (and I might not be) then it would be a big plus for his government to get that back in production and providing employment for the area as well as copper / cobalt capacity.

As far as timelines for getting the refinery into production it’s all guesswork but the obvious example is Sable. Here’s the timeline for Sable:
Acquired Sable August 2019
Copper refining line commissioned December 2019
First high grade copper cathode produced December 2019
Sold first copper cathode in March 2020
Cobalt refining line commissioned May 2020

So about 4 months from acquiring the refinery to producing copper cathode. From that point it was about preparing to receive concentrate from the under construction Roan plant.

If the Northern refinery is in good shape then maybe we can expect a similar timeline for that?

It looks like the Cadastre has been updated with new applications today (not ours!), surprised they are working on Good Friday… maybe in a hurry to get things completed!

I’m sure you’d like everyone to filter you so you can go on posting lies without being challenged eh?

The FACTS are that Jubilee has already agreed terms to purchase a refinery which will be paid off over several years. The Zambian President has even got involved in resolving the last sticking point, unpaid tax by the previous owner, he said that could be resolved this month.

“The targeted refinery holds an approximate capacity of 40 000 tonnes per annum of copper and 5 000 tonnes of cobalt.”

There are only two refineries currently in the area which could produce that level of copper and cobalt as far as I know, Mopani and Chambishi Metals. Chambishi Metals has been in the news for a couple of reasons, one, an unpaid tax bill and two, a report that an “unnamed buyer” would soon be bringing it back into operation. I’m sure even the genius BushyTailed and put two and two together.

What’s the other big news about Chambishi Metals? They already have a furnace for the processing of refinery s l a g, perfect for the Mufulira project which we have recently bid on (and also hold the exploration license for). Leon said in the recent presentation that the Mufulira project would be a “perfect fit” for us… I wonder why!

In case you don’t know that project is “ to recover approximately 115,000 tons of copper and 30,000 tons of cobalt metals.” from very high grade refinery s l a g. Try working out the value of that amount of copper and cobalt…. You will soon appreciate why its so important.

Yes we have suffered delays but if thats all you can focus on and you can’t see the opportunities opening up for Jubilee then yes maybe you should be invested elsewhere. Jubilee have already proved that they can extract A grade copper cathode from waste (this is no small achievement!), what they need to do now is do it consistently and at scale.

Yes 3000 tonnes is for the full year, have a look in the RNS, it’s listed under “Full year Outlook FY2023”.

What we do know:
Copper production of 1149 tonnes in the first half, meaning a target of 1851 tonnes for second half of the year.

Roan started ramp-up end of February.

Roan at 80% by 20th March. According to the analyst call Leon said first target of 550 tonnes and final target of 700 tonnes (potentially up to 800 tonnes), 550 tonnes is 80% (approximately) of 700 tonnes. So when he says 80% ramped up I think he means producing concentrate at 550 tonnes / month.

Roan at 100% “during May” so producing concentrate at 700 tonnes / month before June.

On top of that there is the 3rd party material direct leached at Sable. The RNS states 130 tonnes / month.

If you add all that up then 3000 tonnes for the year should be more than achievable, assuming no other issues. I would hope Leon is being conservative with his estimates this time to avoid disappointment. He did say the 38,000 oz of PGM’s was a conservative number.

Yeah I know what you mean. BushyTailed gets away with spouting total lies about the company and correcting every one gets very boring. I’m tempted to start dumping all of his trash back on the HUM board, see how he likes that!