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This is my calculation Mikie, I’ve assumed the same PGM ounces from Inyoni as in H1 and added 6,000 ounces from Windsor JV (we know they had another 2,500 ounces in stock, I’ve added another 1,000 ounces on top of that for Q4). I’ve used the same costs and chrome credits as in Q3. I haven’t included anything for the cobalt produced because I don’t know if that’s accounted for in the copper production costs. I calculate just over US$32 million in earnings. I wouldn’t put too much faith in that though!
https://tinyurl.com/mpr73dar
https://tinyurl.com/5s8uh547

You believe wrong.

Mikie, if you look at page 14 of the WHI research note from December 2021, you can see the projected production numbers for each year. We are at least a year to 18 months behind their forecast in terms of copper production. Cobalt was not forecast to come online until FY 2024 so that has been a bonus. PGM’s have been over estimated, presumably they were expecting to have the extra 8,000 ounces a year from the JV, I’d like to know if we are going to take advantage of that on a more regular basis with the increased chrome production. Also Zinc was forecast to come in during 2023 but obviously that hasn’t happened. Leon did mention in the presentation that it was back on the agenda though.

On the issue of Roan, I did write to the company to try and get clarification on a few points but (so far) no response…. Maybe I’m asking the wrong questions! One of the questions was about the ramp up, I think there’s some ambiguity which is causing misinterpretation. Anyway I looked back to the original ramp up and I think that provides the answer. The ramp up is referring to the throughput rate, as is the name-plate capacity (110 tonnes /hour). There will be an inevitable time lag between achieving the maximum throughput and achieving maximum concentrate output. Just thought I’d point that out in case anyone else was as confused as me!

Yes it’s good to see PGM’s starting to increase again, even rhodium is starting to show signs of improvement recently.

Fair enough Dorfan, I haven’t really looked into the currency effects so would be interested to see your figures. Maybe we have to factor in the Zambian Kwatcha at some point as well!

2 years ago our PGM margin was almost twice what it is now, and they were expecting Zambia to have progressed faster than it has. Things change. Berenberg still has a target of 20p so maybe they weren’t that far off based on what they knew at the time.

You don’t have to be an investing genius to see that the downside for Arc is extremely limited, we will have a guaranteed income for several years plus the other assets we are holding or will hold from the Casa sale. We still have exposure to income from Casa and Sturec. We have licenses in Botswana which have two of Khoemacau’s priority exploration targets extremely adjacent to our boarders (one of which is a short distance from where we were drilling). That’s before we get into the Zambia licenses which have at least 4-5 major targets any one of which could lead to a major discovery. When you compare the downside with the upside potential frankly I’d have to ask why you would NOT be buying!

I get notified through Reasearch Tree, you need to register but the in house broker notes are free to view. It’s just a shortish note, here’s the summary:

“ WHI View: The Jubilee investment case is strong with multi-commodity production from two mining jurisdictions using good technical control of processing technology to process waste materials (and Run Of Mine ore); low-cost production into a high price environment promises strong revenues and profits and high returns to shareholders. The Northern Refinery project in Zambia will be the game changer in our opinion.“

WHI have a new note out.

He’s still there, lurking. Just won’t raise his head while the SP is increasing… long may that continue!

I see you are deramping HOC as well now. What a pleasant individual you must be.

I’d like to think that we would stick around long enough to see all of the major targets explored. It will be interesting to see how Anglo go about things, are they going to blitz what they see as the most prospective targets first or try and get a more broad understanding of what’s there. Hopefully not too long before we find out.

To put that US$48.2 million total funding into perspective. In order to generate that amount of cash from copper production alone, using earnings / tonne of Cu of US$3,500, it would only take about 14,000 tonnes of copper at current prices.

I’d rather hear it from the horses mouth so I’ll email the company and see if I can get any clarification.

The share price has been a lot lower than it is now and it didn’t deter me then, when we didn’t have a signed JV. I do however remember Peggy selling when the price was in the 2’s (so he said anyway) I bet he had a face like a damp squid that day!

Not necessarily, as I said, it might be due to the grades of PGMs in the feed. I might write to the company to confirm the reason.

No great surprises which given recent history is a good thing! Costs per unit coming down and earnings per unit going up so we are going in the right direction. I don’t really understand why they have stopped cobalt production altogether if they can still produce at a profit. Maybe they are happy to stockpile the concentrate until they can get a better margin from it.

One thing I’d like a bit more clarity on is the PGM production. The stated capacity of Inyoni is 44,000 PGM ounces / year or 11,000 PGM ounces / quarter. Why are we only achieving just over 9,000 PGM ounces this quarter? Is it down to the grade of feed material or were there any effects from load shedding this quarter? We know they have sufficient feedstock because some of the stockpile was sent to Windsor for processing.

I’ve wondered before why they stopped taking advantage of the JV to add extra PGM ounces but now I think about it the answer is obvious, all of the available feed was going to Inyoni. Now they have upped chrome production there is extra feed available to send out to Windsor. Hopefully they continue to do this, I’d rather have 60% revenue from those extra ounces than nothing, at least until the copper operation gets into full swing.

As I know how much he enjoys my overlays I have prepared some new ones :-)

https://twitter.com/NavSeis/status/1649801620534730753?s=20

ZenMerlin, all DD is complete, we have signed a binding JV. All that remains is to complete the transfer of licenses into the Unico company and and for Anglo to take majority control of that company, then drilling can commence.

“ materially nothing has changed”

Presumably you mean nothing apart from the binding agreement that was just signed.

Great idea Telly, you never know it might plant a seed and generate a bit more coverage for the industry and Jubilee in particular!