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On the face of it this sounds like really great news, that near 5x increase in margin on chrome concentrate from around 4% to somewhere near 20% will have a significant effect on the bottom line, more than doubling chrome earnings and resulting in a chrome credit that is higher than our transport and processing costs per PGM ounce… in other words our cost / PGM ounce will be zero after applying the chrome credit! I’ll look at the details again later when more awake but this is significant news in my view and will pay for itself very quickly.

Glad to hear all progressing as per guidance in Zambia too, if only we can sign off on the Northern Refinery things will really start to move.

I’d like to know what he’s got against Duncan Wanblad that he wants to see AA replace him with a woman!

Good to see they are confirming license status for those already processed. I noticed LEL application 80, the license AA was applying for next to Zaco, has been granted to Tertiary Minerals.

It’s important to remember that they have already completed a ramp up to full capacity once, before the water and power problems overtook them. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t be able to do it again. We have been told water and power are now dealt with and the material handling / crushing parts of the plant have been beefed up to make them more robust in production. Until advised otherwise I’ll assume things are progressing as per guidance. Also it depends what’s happening with the front end upgrade. That’s an unknown until they tell us more.

I use dollars because most commodities are quoted in dollars. Trying to work out exchange rates between rand/ kwatcha / dollars / pounds is a whole level of complexity I don’t need. Feel free to give us your calculations in pounds, I’m sure we would be happy to see them.

Why would I not think they are capable of reaching 3000 tonnes for the year? From 24th April “ Copper guidance remains unchanged at 3 000 tonnes”.

Are you expecting a serious answer from someone who constantly lies about the company?

Does nobody do any research here? Maybe you should instead of just moaning about the share price… you might learn something to your advantage.

Nothing to say about your losses on HUM there bluffytailed? Personally I’m still sitting on a nice profit here despite the drop… can you say the same? I doubt it.

I do wonder sometimes if Piggy actually knows what Arc Minerals business is… he doesn’t seem to understand anything beyond the current share price. 😁

Two bit trader about sums it up Mikie, he pretends to be the big I am on here but the fact is he started posting on HUM when the SP was in the 20’s so despite it rising due to the strength of gold, unless he’s averaged down he’s still loosing money. As I said before, most traders loose money in the long run. 😁

Thanks Dorfan, I don’t usually check the other site but just had a look. I’m wary of believing that sort of thing posted on message boards, especially having never received a reply to any of my own emails. Having said that I’ve never used Leon’s own company email address so who knows? Perhaps if someone such as yourself was to contact Leon to confirm what is being claimed I would be more inclined to believe it!

Maximus, yes rhodium price has a massive impact on the PGM basket, or did, when it was trading at much higher levels. In the last estimate I did, platinum is now contributing more than rhodium to the basket.

Https://twitter.com/navseis/status/1663104508056989697?s=61

Yeah I know, but once in a while I like to unfilter him and push back a bit on his garbage. The reality is most traders will loose money in the long run and I very much doubt Bushytailed is smart enough to buck that trend. That makes them desperate to gain any little advantage so they try to influence sentiment on the share by posting on the boards…. Sad really.

Standard deramper tactic, go on the defensive when challenged to actually produce some facts. All we ever get from you is blah blah blah…. Where’s the FACTS?!

Give us the benefit of your vast experience oh wise one… tell us the costs to produce an ounce of PGM or a tonne of copper… if you can’t even do that why the hell should anyone listen to you?

Show us how you arrived at this “negative free cash flow” lets see the numbers….

Not prepared to stick your neck out then eh? What a surprise, scared of actually calculating some numbers and then being proved wrong.

Hi Dorfan, yes I was just basing my numbers on current capacity but with the Eastern Limb expansion in SA and Northern Refinery in Zambia we will be looking at multiples of that eventually.

Having watched the HH interview from earlier this year, I have no doubt that Chambishi Metals and Jubilee are an integral part of the governments plans for meeting their ambitious copper target.

Getting Chambishi Metals reopened will have positive impacts for several reasons:

1. Obviously increased employment for the region.

2. Higher capacity to create locally refined cobalt for the planned EV battery plants

3. Ability to process the refinery s l a g heaps

4. Something which maybe has been overlooked, the company was a major supplier of gypsum for the construction industry (a by-product of the copper making process) and it’s closure has increased prices for cement:

https://zambianbusinesstimes.com/cement-price-hike-linked-to-shortage-of-gypsum-closure-of-chambishi-metals/

It’s maybe worth pointing out as well that Chambishi Metals is the only company in Africa which was able to produce A grade copper cathode as well as A grade cobalt cathode to LME standard.

I just hope that the government and the current owners can reach a compromise on the tax issue quickly so we can get the ball rolling.

For Jubilee in South Africa expansion into the Eastern Limb will have the benefit of not having to truck tailings across country to be processed at Inyoni, which is quite a big cost currently. Hopefully they will be looking to install backup power of some sort as part of the chrome plant construction.

Just realised that I haven’t allowed for the ‘percentage paid’ in the cobalt calculation so that annual earnings number should be around US$12.3 million based on a percentage paid of 75%.

To counter the frankly ridiculous assertions that the company is not profitable, here is my calculation of what a 12 month period of full production could look like, based on current metals prices. I don’t think the numbers are particularly optimistic but please feel free to comment on anything you don’t think is reasonable.

https://tinyurl.com/8a3sbs2j

I’m not saying that this is what we will earn, only what the potential earnings are at full production and with the current softer metals prices.

I’m assuming 9,100 PGM ounces / quarter from Inyoni which is roughly what we have been seeing, plus 5,000 PGM ounces from the JV.

I’m assuming the same chrome credit of roughly US$400 / PGM ounce

I’m assuming 12,000 tonnes of copper and a production cost of US$5,500

I’m assuming 1,500 tonnes of contained cobalt with a price of US$30,000 / tonne and costs of US$19,000 / tonne.

As said previously cobalt is on hold at the moment but can be quickly brought online when they choose to do so.

Maximus, yes they were planning on expanding capacity to 125 tonnes / month of contained cobalt (450 tonnes / month of cobalt hydroxide) by May. However the last update said that production was on hold until the cobalt price showed signs of recovery so I don’t think there are immediate plans to start up again, we will hopefully get more news on that in the next update.

This is an interesting analysis of ASIC for cobalt producers, well worth reading the whole thing:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573968-cobalt-expansion-drive-is-a-copper-story

The examples given are a couple of years out of date but it gives a reasonable indication of what we might expect from Jubilee. I was looking in particular for information on Metalkol, they are another tailings re treatment project in DRC and the closest in profile to Jubilee: https://www.ergafrica.com/cobalt-copper-division/metalkol-rtr/

You can see on the plot of “2020 African copper mine ASIC ($ / pound of paid copper)” that Metalkol is right at the bottom at roughly 0.7 $/ lb or $1,540 / tonne of copper. Clearly the cobalt grades are typically higher in DRC than in Zambia but it’s an indication of what we could expect once operations are scaled up.

The quoted ASIC per pound of cobalt for 2021 is $8.44, equivalent to $18,600 / tonne so in the ball park of what Leon was quoting for a 10,000 tonne / annum refinery. Of course that ASIC would include mining costs which we would not be having to pay (as with Metalkol) so it could come in cheaper than that.

I’d suggest making a formal complaint to LSE about Bushytailed’s posts, which are nothing short of criminal. If they are not prepared to do anything about him then I would have no qualms in getting the police involved.