Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks for double checking my numbers Mikie. Basically you could say that each additional Thutse sized module should add about US$5.4 million in earnings (assuming costs and revenue remain constant). One other thing is, the first Thutse module has a monthly throughput capacity of 30,000 tonnes of ROM I believe:
"Jubilee expands its operational chrome footprint by a further 360 000 tonnes per annum processing capacity targeting an additional 200 000 tonnes chrome concentrate and 10 000 oz PGM feed to Inyoni, through a new partnership agreement."
So the two additional modules which are 50,000 tonnes/month processing capacity each would be more than 3 times the first Thutse module in capacity. So I would say somewhere in the region of US$50 million / year from chrome alone is very achievable is chrome price remains strong.
They had already agreed a valuation and were in the final stages of the deal when a historical tax issue for the current owners ERG came up. We haven’t heard anything more since then, which was many months ago. When they agreed the deal, cobalt prices were very strong but have since collapsed so I would hazard a guess that they want to renegotiate terms if indeed they are planning to buy it.
Alby Tross was an account that posted lies about Arc for many months on twitter. It’s connected to the likes of Ella10 and analytical on these boards who were ramping all of Colin Birds companies at various times. Recently Ella / Alby seem to have turned positive on Arc so my guess is Colin Bird has bought in to the company (I’d be amazed if he hadn’t).
From my limited knowledge of geology I believe tourmaline can be an indicator of other minerals including copper. The place he’s referring to is near the Muswema target which is one of Arc’s other major targets. I’m not sure if it adds anything that we didn’t already know to be honest! Maybe if there are any geologists reading they might have something to say on that?
Jonah, ruthenium and iridium also account for about 10% of Jubilee’s basket too at these depressed prices. Both will be important for the hydrogen economy if it is to gain traction. Until recently iridium was necessary for PEM electrolysis and because there is so little of it available it would make scale up unrealistically expensive. Recently a breakthrough was announced that ruthenium / iridium alloys can now do the same thing, bringing the cost down considerably.
I think it’s inevitable that we will eventually see a rise in the PGM basket because so many ounces being produced at a loss is clearly unsustainable. I wonder if Jubilee are planning to stockpile some excess material with the knowledge that they will probably be able to sell at a higher margin at some point? I know in the IC they did talk about potentially activating the JV with Northam again.
Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/platinum-remains-in-fundamental-deficit-northam-2024-03-01
Worth a watch.
South African chrome ore 40-42% concentrate price is US$290-295(bulk) this week, edging higher again from US$285-290 last week.
Comparing the data source I'm using against the average for H1FY23: I calculated an average of US$287 (using the lower end of the range) and the actual average achieved was US$290, so very close to what I expected.
One of the few positives out of that situation is that the drilling season is likely to start again earlier than normal. Indeed from what I’ve heard Anglo have continued drilling intermittently since they started.
I think you’re getting a bit carried away on the timings Mikie. All of that is going to take years to achieve, just with the manufacturing capacity of the modules for a start. The first module at Munkoyo isn’t expected until the end of this year / start of next year. The first module or two for the waste rock project in the second half of this year. We might be filling capacity at Sable by the end of the year if all goes well but more likely into next year.
I’d suggest reading the WH Ireland note, especially page 10 where it shows the expected growth profile for copper oxide and sulphide. We definitely don’t need two additional refineries any time soon!
The other thing that caught my attention in the webinar was the potential for improving PGM recovery. I made a note in my spreadsheet that Jubilee is only recovering 35-38% of PGM’s currently, with the potential for that to increase to 60-70%. If you see the dramatic improvement in recovery in platinum in particular from using gly-leach in one of the examples… it would be interesting to know if they are exploring that. Something to ask at the next investor call!
I’m not suggesting it should be a priority, just thought it was worth sharing what the potential is there. That doesn’t include the tailings at Mufulira either.
I must confess I’m not really sure what the goal is with Chambishi. Originally they mentioned that they were in discussions to acquire a second refinery for cobalt, as well as the brownfield site at Mopani that was part of the MoU. That was when cobalt prices were sky high. I’d assumed Chambishi was off the table now with cobalt prices so low but maybe they want it primarily as a copper refinery? Then what happens to the brownfield refinery footprint at Mopani? Too many unknowns at the minute!
Valueseeker, why did you invest in Arc in the first place? Presumably to see the licenses explored and if resources found, value created yes? How do you think value is going to be created until they actually start drilling? I don’t really understand your logic to be honest.
I just did a quick calculation on the Luanshya tailings, where they are doing the large scale testing, based on the gly-leach recovery of 80% copper.
There are 3 tailings dams but one is quite low grade so discarding that one for now, there are an estimated 103 million tonnes of tailings at 0.3% copper average: 103,000,000 x 0.3% x 80% = 247,000 tonnes of recoverable copper.
At Kitwe there are an estimated 114 million tonnes at 0.3% copper, so:
114,000,000 x 0.3% x 80% = 273,000 tonnes of recoverable copper
So a potential total of about 520,000 tonnes of recoverable copper.
This was the Draslovka webinar that was held yesterday. It's got a few bit's and pieces that might be of interest. One of the case studies is copper-cobalt tailings in Zambia.... I wonder who that might be! It shows the various reagents used and the recovery percentages. It's clearly much better at recovering copper than cobalt but they may still be working to improve that.
https://youtu.be/XQV7-WYvsmQ?si=65xGw1VW9kXQU_Lh