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Spot the people who sold too early 😂

I don't think anyone is holding it down, there are some big sells going through as well as plenty of buying, some taking profit from the rise, others seeing an opportunity.

The share price has doubled in just a couple of months. Those who were smart enough to buy at the bottom are now sitting on a substantial profit and some of them will undoubtedly be derisking their investment by selling into the rise. You will always get periods of consolidation after a big rise, before it takes off again. It's nothing new.

News on the assays should be due any time now. This was from the December update:

"Ø Work to produce an Exploration Target is underway and will provide a range of tonnes and grades for Target A1 and convey the exploration potential.

Ø Exploration Target to be finalised in Q1 2026 once laboratory analysis results for silver are returned from recent (Phase 3) drilling, which included the highest-grade copper intersection to date.

Ø Additional mineralogical study results due in the coming weeks."

I'm sure you could have found that yourself Pandy but maybe it was too much effort for you.

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mining-stocks-on-cusp-of-supercycle-as-ai-boom-stokes-metals-2026-01-26

Hi jjhbev,

Yes it depends a lot on what you believe the production will be for Q2. All of my calculations are done with the 6E numbers which to me makes more sense because then you're not guessing at the revenue and earnings from by-products. My 30,000 ounces of 6E production would be equivalent to roughly 23,500 ounces of 4E production so not that different to what you were using. Are you taking into account the revenue and earnings from the minor metals?

The reason why the revenue figure is lower than expected by multiplying the gross PGM basket by the number of ounces is that you have to take into account 'net smelter pay' which (I believe) takes into account refinery losses and costs. I calculated the (6E) revenue for Q1 and got US$45.5m as compared with US$45.1m actual reported figure so pretty close.

Generally I don't try and take any estimated past the gross profit stage because there are too many unknowns beyond that but of course I'd be very happy to see your potential 200p target come to pass! Just looking at historical numbers it seems a bit unlikely to me but then what do I know!

Adbeggar, there are a couple of exploration licenses in the name of Sable Zinc which are close to Molefe mine area which are certainly Jubilee's. There are also a couple in the name of Grovenor Resources. We don't know for sure if they are part of an agreement with Jubilee or not. Even if you assume they are part of the stated 25,000 ha, the total area is still well below what is stated so there has to be at least one more license as yet unknown.

Eagle, I think it's more likely to be some form of copper mineralisation rather than gold. Chalcopyrite can look brassy or gold coloured for example.

It's pretty clear that PGM's across the board are being bought up, not just the big ones like platinum and rhodium. That maybe points to governments stockpiling with a view to the future. Even iridium is starting to add significantly to the basket now, at more than US$6,000 / ounce it adds about US$300 to the basket.

I've tried avoiding any news coverage of Trump, it's not good for the blood pressure! I seriously doubt he'll make it to the end of his term, he's knocking on 80 now and showing signs of serious cognitive decline. He's also got the worst approval rating of any US president ever although in Trump reality I'm sure he thinks he's doing great!

I think we already knew he would be stepping down because it was the resolution to re-appoint him at the AGM was withdrawn. I don't know if thats because shareholders voted against or because they planned to slim down the board further anyway.

Weekly chrome price is significantly higher this week at US$285-287 / tonne.

Personally I think the SP trend is still based on PGM guidance rather than the elevated numbers announced in Q1. My reasoning for that is that the SP has continued to track the PGM basket price, if there was an expectation of significantly exceeding guidance then we should have seen a sudden step up in SP when the results were announced but we didn't.

I think people talking about 200p target are probably being wildly optimistic because the SP went to about 140p at the peak of the PGM spike in 2020/2021 and the basket then was about US$5,000 / PGM ounce. Production is a bit higher now and number of shares in issue a bit less but still I think 200p is optimistic unless the basket goes much higher and / or the company announces significant news.

Never, you could have paraphrased that and just said "I've sold my shares and was hoping to buy them a bit cheaper". We all know what your game is, you've even said it yourself.

Yes it might be better to err on the side of caution regarding the PGM production as they didn't update the guidance after the record Q1 numbers. We shall see. Electricity tariffs weren't due to increase until this quarter I believe but of course there could be other cost rises to consider.

I think it's more likely that institutions are slowly selling to lock in profit ahead of the results but thats just speculation. I think thats more likely than lots of investors having insider knowledge as you suggest.

Thats a bit of a strange conclusion to jump to, that seems to suggest that the majority of investors have got inside information which is obviously nonsense. It's Q2 by the way.

Here's a chart showing the estimated PGM basket along with the share price:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/t2w2zfdidqsji1cmiatjq/SLP-Basket-and-SP.jpg?rlkey=k6fexb3w7hwvjuu8hp299qa88&dl=0

It's interesting to look at how the two have tracked over the last year. There's obviously been a very close correlation between the two but on occasion the SP has run too hot and you can see the corrections (circled in red) where institutions have taken profit and rebalanced their portfolio. Interestingly, for the first time recently the SP seems to be lagging behind the PGM basket. If it were to follow the same trend then we should be seeing about 124p at the moment.

Here's the PGM basket along with the chrome price:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/e0bp0jzj9f37hccsnt1b6/SLP-PGM-basket-and-Chrome-prices.jpg?rlkey=0ghlxiz03mgt239n0pjxf0c70&dl=0

Chrome dipped a bit recently but is recovering again. The average price this financial year to date is comfortably exceeding the US$265 that was used by SLP in their forecasts so that should add a nice little bump to the bottom line. Nothing in comparison to PGM's but it all adds up.

Looking at my spreadsheet, based on 30,000 ounces of 6E PGMs and 15,000 tonnes of chrome, I'm estimating EBITDA for the quarter of about US$32m. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain PGM production at the levels seen in Q1, the RoM processed was much less than previously so it must have been higher in grade.

It's quite amusing how MetalTrade has gone from a timid little investor who can't stomach an ounce of risk to someone who is happy to throw money at exploration plays with no guarantee of success! I'm invested in one of those companies myself but I wouldn't dream of trying to constantly promote them on an unrelated chat board like he keeps doing.

Looks like Harmprof has the verbal diarrhoea again. Lots of green boxes today.

Fair enough, you obviously know best big man.

Lots of buys at exactly the same timestamp. Possibly someone accumulating a position.

Can you provide evidence of it being the "cheapest copper producer by a big margin" Mazerunner? I doubt you can because nobody knows what the cost per tonne is likely to be as yet.