The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/platinum-remains-in-fundamental-deficit-northam-2024-03-01
Worth a watch.
South African chrome ore 40-42% concentrate price is US$290-295(bulk) this week, edging higher again from US$285-290 last week.
Comparing the data source I'm using against the average for H1FY23: I calculated an average of US$287 (using the lower end of the range) and the actual average achieved was US$290, so very close to what I expected.
One of the few positives out of that situation is that the drilling season is likely to start again earlier than normal. Indeed from what I’ve heard Anglo have continued drilling intermittently since they started.
I think you’re getting a bit carried away on the timings Mikie. All of that is going to take years to achieve, just with the manufacturing capacity of the modules for a start. The first module at Munkoyo isn’t expected until the end of this year / start of next year. The first module or two for the waste rock project in the second half of this year. We might be filling capacity at Sable by the end of the year if all goes well but more likely into next year.
I’d suggest reading the WH Ireland note, especially page 10 where it shows the expected growth profile for copper oxide and sulphide. We definitely don’t need two additional refineries any time soon!
The other thing that caught my attention in the webinar was the potential for improving PGM recovery. I made a note in my spreadsheet that Jubilee is only recovering 35-38% of PGM’s currently, with the potential for that to increase to 60-70%. If you see the dramatic improvement in recovery in platinum in particular from using gly-leach in one of the examples… it would be interesting to know if they are exploring that. Something to ask at the next investor call!
I’m not suggesting it should be a priority, just thought it was worth sharing what the potential is there. That doesn’t include the tailings at Mufulira either.
I must confess I’m not really sure what the goal is with Chambishi. Originally they mentioned that they were in discussions to acquire a second refinery for cobalt, as well as the brownfield site at Mopani that was part of the MoU. That was when cobalt prices were sky high. I’d assumed Chambishi was off the table now with cobalt prices so low but maybe they want it primarily as a copper refinery? Then what happens to the brownfield refinery footprint at Mopani? Too many unknowns at the minute!
Valueseeker, why did you invest in Arc in the first place? Presumably to see the licenses explored and if resources found, value created yes? How do you think value is going to be created until they actually start drilling? I don’t really understand your logic to be honest.
I just did a quick calculation on the Luanshya tailings, where they are doing the large scale testing, based on the gly-leach recovery of 80% copper.
There are 3 tailings dams but one is quite low grade so discarding that one for now, there are an estimated 103 million tonnes of tailings at 0.3% copper average: 103,000,000 x 0.3% x 80% = 247,000 tonnes of recoverable copper.
At Kitwe there are an estimated 114 million tonnes at 0.3% copper, so:
114,000,000 x 0.3% x 80% = 273,000 tonnes of recoverable copper
So a potential total of about 520,000 tonnes of recoverable copper.
This was the Draslovka webinar that was held yesterday. It's got a few bit's and pieces that might be of interest. One of the case studies is copper-cobalt tailings in Zambia.... I wonder who that might be! It shows the various reagents used and the recovery percentages. It's clearly much better at recovering copper than cobalt but they may still be working to improve that.
https://youtu.be/XQV7-WYvsmQ?si=65xGw1VW9kXQU_Lh
Jammer, the margin for toll processing was actually only US$4-5 with the rest coming from the fine chrome circuit and some Winsor 8 material which is bought and sold at market rates I believe. There's an explanation of it in the old research note from 2021. I think when Leon was talking about 4-5 times tolling rate he meant US$4-5. Anyway as you say we will see it more clearly in Q3 numbers.
Reposting this because I spotted a mistake in my numbers
I was just trying to calculate the potential impact of adding two extra chrome modules. Maybe someone could check my logic or calculate it independently.
In Q1 The cost / tonne was US$75, the revenue / tonne was US$85 resulting in a margin of US$10
For H1 The cost / tonne was US$73, the revenue / tonne was US$90 resulting in a margin of US$17
I calculated that the figures for Q2 (based on the published tonnages) must have been:
For Q2 The cost / tonne was US$71, the revenue / tonne was US$94.4 resulting in a margin of US$23.1
So by adding 50,000 tonnes in Q2 (I’m assuming this all came from Thutse) the margin increased by US$13.1 / tonne
Total costs increased by about US$2.2 million from Q1 to Q2 and total revenue increased by about US$7.7 million so an earnings increase of about US$5.5 million from Q1 to Q2.
I calculate that by adding an additional two modules producing (for example) 100,000 tonnes / quarter, the earnings / tonne would be about US$25. Resulting in potential annual earnings (at current chrome price) of about US$48 million. That’s assuming the cost increase and revenue increase for each additional module is the same.
Anyone want to whip out the calculator and check those numbers and assumptions?
Maybe you should have checked the SP before pretending to have been invested for 10 years eh? If you can show me proof that you invested when the SP was a pound I might believe you but I doubt that will be forthcoming so into the bin with you, have fun with buttermilk and all the other chancers.