Member Info for SeisNav

Yes good to see rhodium up again this afternoon, now over US$12,000 / oz.

My average estimated 4E basket for Q3 is US$3,158

Hey what a surprise nevertogiveup... you pop up just as the SP has a bit of weakness and yet you were hiding under your rock since the rise!

It looks from those big trades that institutions are shuffling shares around again following the rise, so we might see a bit of pull back in the short term.

Thank's for your valuable input RMc2407! You will be sadly missed!

I'm joking of course.

The SP was 40p 12 months ago so I would say it has exploded... just over a prolonged timeframe! Much of the value is already factored in which is why the SP so closely tracks the basket price. There is always the potential for a step change due to the higher guidance for the full year but equally that depends on the PGM basket staying at current levels, and that isn't guaranteed.

Rhodium ticked up again this morning on the London market opening, now US$11,850 which is a good sign. Platinum seems to be consolidating at the current level within a range, also a good sign! I don't think much is factored in for chrome yet which I think will surprise to the upside in Q3, also interesting that they are looking to further expand chrome operations in the future.

They did say in the recent tweet that drilling had restarted SE of pit 1 so I think it may be just continuing the trend of previous drilling which you can see on the Galileo website, all to the South of the current mine. It can be hard to interpret what Leon actually means sometimes. Just when you think you understand something he says something else which contradicts it!

I would ignore any of the wild speculation on there. They aren't privy to market sensitive information. At one point the guy who went to visit Molefe claimed the strike was 8-9km long when you can easily go on Google Earth and see that the distance between pit 1-9 is about 1km. The annoying thing is that Leon never corrects these inaccuracies.

I wouldn't be surprised if the company who purchased the 10m tonnes from the LWP is one of the potential partners.... for them I think you need to look (far) East. The other obvious candidate is KCM because they are located adjacent to the LWP and were the owners of it originally. If the reports are to be believed, KCM (Vedanta) are in a bad state after years of neglect and they are relying on reprocessing waste dumps rather than mining so they might be keen to be involved.

Northern, I got the impression they were looking at drilling the wider molefe mining area to the South, not on other licenses but I might be wrong.

I think a big part of the increase was due to rhodium being up about 4% on the day.

Jonah, the implication seems to be that they expect to be able to fully utilise Sable's capacity from Molefe alone further down the line, which is what Mikey reported after the AGM. If that is the case then there's no reason to rush to progress Project G I guess. It's interesting that they talked about a potential parallel orebody South of the current mine area, I guess that will be the focus of wider exploration once they have finished drilling around Molefe.

JLP on the Sunday Roast:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-sunday-roast/id1593750832?i=1000750870230

There isn't a fixed number for capacity. It depends on the type of material which is being processed. My understanding is that the milling and floatation circuit is capable of processing 70,000 tpm of tailings. Processing RoM as they are doing now is a different matter. They are quoting a capacity for Roan now of 45,000 tpm. Is that the capacity of the milling and floatation circuit when processing RoM? Why are they not currently reaching that capacity? Could it be the supply rate of RoM isn't allowing them to go higher or some other technical reason? We don't know but these are questions that should be answered.

I'm not really sure what you are trying to say regarding production numbers, they are there in black and white. Yes overall production at Roan is lower in Q2 than Q1, there's no denying that. There's more to it than just the headline figure though. In Q1, 66% of Roan production was sulphide concentrates which sell for a much lower price. In Q2 that number was down to about 13%, meaning 87% of Roan production should achieve LME price for copper cathode. Overall, the actual value of copper produced in Q2 is higher than Q1, but that value won't be realised until they can put the stockpiles through the expanded dewatering circuit. We should expect annual production to be weighted to Q4 I think.

That's very much a layman's take on the situation, so I might have some of that wrong, but that's what I understand based on what I've read and heard. It's worth referring back to the Sunday Roast interview that they did on site with Ricus Grimbeek and Alex Mwanza where they talk about the two circuits:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-sunday-roast/id1593750832?i=1000671949474

First you have to understand how Roan was supposed to be operating and how it is currently operating. Roan is comprised of two circuits;

1. the original crushing / milling and floatation / de-watering circuit, and

2. the new DMS "front end" circuit.

The capacity of the milling and floatation circuit is ~70,000 tpm throughput but this depends on the type of material being processed. As I understand it, this is primarily designed to process sulphide rich ores but also has a separate oxide extraction circuit.

The capacity of the DMS is (theoretically) 50,000 tpm and it was designed to process predominantly oxide rich ores.

Currently the DMS is not being used for reasons which have not been made clear, my own thought is that either the circuit was damaged due to some reason, maybe a power outage, or it has been taken offline in order to upgrade it in some way.

That means they are having to process oxide rich ores through the milling and floatation circuit which is not optimal, and probably why they have had to expand the dewatering circuit.

The only way they could possibly achieve the stated theoretical capacity of 13,000 tonnes would be to have the oxide rich feed going to the DMS circuit and another sulphide rich feed going to the milling and floatation circuit. That means running the two circuits in parallel rather than in series. Will that happen at some point? Who knows.

I decided to buy back in today because it does seem that the PGM basket is establishing a new level at ~ US$3,000 / ounce, hopefully I'm not speaking too soon! Here's the updated chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mtcqu14ne4ryilx9foxl1/PGM-basket-and-SP.jpg?rlkey=atlpqto80h51mwybta2z0mq7c&dl=0

Also here is the chart showing PGM basket and chrome prices:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5foyn99543u4586e6apdu/PGM-basket-and-Chrome-prices.jpg?rlkey=t7zbx2fqkqlafixco5k3cijvg&dl=0

With chrome just below US$300 / tonne recently, it's considerably higher than the number used by SLP in their recent forecasts (US$260 / tonne).

Jubilee currently have recovery of about 65% but are working to recover the ultra-fine copper which is currently lost so we should expect that to increase over time.

Just to remind you that Jubilee have history of fine and ultra fine particle recovery in chrome and were industry leaders and one of the biggest producers worldwide and that's without owning any mines. Maybe Metso could learn something from them instead?

What is the recovery rate for this technology MetalTrade? Because I don't see any specifications quoted anywhere. How do you know it's better than what Jubilee are doing?

There's a difference between a capital raise to keep the lights on and a capital raise to progress a potential company making exploration project. What will the SP be when they announce the JORC exploration target? What if they announce one or more additional JV's as I think they almost certainly will do before drilling season. Everyone is free to make their own decisions and someone petty enough to gloat at strangers isn't going to make the slightest difference in my thinking.... value will out in the end.

I posted the numbers that we know about nevergiveup, so that's somewhere in the region of US$45m immediately with more staged payments from non-core assets throughout the year. There is no danger of them running out of money in months, you are just lying. If you continue to post lies I will continue to report them until you get yourself banned.

Pretending you are a shareholder while at the same time trying to tell people the company is going to run out of cash is so stupid it's almost beyond belief.

If you are wondering who asked the moderator to remove your deliberately misleading comments then it was me. How much money did we have due?

US$25m from the sale of SA operations, US$14m from sale of non-core assets with more payments due throughout this year, whatever profit accrued from the SA operations in H1 which could be significant with PGM prices elevated in Q2.

One of the TR-1 holders was selling some recently which in my view accounted for the pull back in SP. Just de-risking his investment a bit it seems. It doesn't change the investment case here. It's possible that the interactions that RB had at Indaba have attracted new investors... let's hope so.