Member Info for Seifert

Hi there, my sweet. Please take note of this veritable fact - you only need come onto the markets for 15 minutes a day. The rest is entertainment (or horror, if you are losing cash). And I would imagine the bulk of your losses resulted from your taking notice of posters on these, and other boards. I am loath to proffer advice, or tips. I make statements such as my views on KAZ, and CEY etc to LEVIS because he has the wit to make up his own mind irrespective of what he may read. I trust you will do the same. In fact, I would have more faith in your (patient) intuition that in reckless abandonment to some masculine ramping and general proclamations. If I am really very convinced by a particular stock I want to buy (for example for my ISA) and the price is right, I will let you know. Otherwise, trust yourself. If not, just sit back and learn and don't participate until you do. Good luck!

Good morning. - Cyprus is a side show, and used as a crutch here for markets to swing about. It's how money is made (and not necessarily via the direct route, but through derivative trades, which is becoming the main platform and raison d'etre for the stock market moves). Rio, in my view and contrary to yours, has some issues. I don't know exactly what they are, but I feel something is awry here. KAZ is part of the Russia area, and there is a gang of financiers who, I feel, are out to hammer any Russian connection. The fact must be, ultimately, that even though the supply is ahead of demand, these companies sit on real assets, and finance companies are balloons waiting ot pop. That does not mean that 'the market' won't keep blowing these babies up, (after all, it's not their money, and anyone can gamble with others' money, even a donkey can do that!). As one recent analysis of traders revealed, 'An LPL Financial analysis found that the average holding period of a stock has fallen from eight years in the 1960s to around five days in 2012.' Now this observation is a crucial parameter in how markets will trend and behave (in fact, it alone represents a game changer). It's time to build new trading models. The old ones are broken. You only have echos of them reverberating through the system. I am now working on a new model. And I wager I will outwit all the rest put together. Have a good day.

Many thanks for your flattering comments. I am not in a bashful mood! - Allow me to leave you with this piece of advice, - learn to trust yourself and not me, newspapers, trends, gimmicks, or anything else. Because as far as I can ascertain, this is a speculator's markets, not an investors one. Good luck!

I can only wish both you guys luck, and since you are making decisions based on your own experience, expectations and understanding, then I would stick with it. As I emphasized in my posts - I am taking a cynical view. That is my position, not yours, and I will run with my own understanding and expectations. - But I will add one thing that you should take account of: Rio, Vale, BHP, and others have predicated so much on China continuing its current trajectory. Extrapolating a line is easy, And the truth is, the guys running these companies ain't that smart. As the chairman of Glencore noted, their investments in mines were too extravagant. I have set a target of £22 for Rio. If I am wrong - so what?! I have been wrong before, and will be again. It will then be just another missed opportunity that you would have seized and I forfeited. But that is the role of independent thinking. Good luck!

I can only wish both you guys luck, and since you are making decisions based on your own experience, expectations and understanding, then I would stick with it. As I emphasized in my posts - I am taking a cynical view. That is my position, not yours, and I will run with my own understanding and expectations. - But I will add one thing that you should take account of: Rio, Vale, BHP, and others have predicated so much on China continuing its current trajectory. Extrapolating a line is easy, And the truth is, the guys running these companies ain't that smart. As the chairman of Glencore noted, their investments in mines were too extravagant. I have set a target of £22 for Rio. If I am wrong - so what?! I have been wrong before, and will be again. It will then be just another missed opportunity that you would have seized and I forfeited. But that is the rule of independent thinking. Good luck!

As an aside, Italy, with all its problems, is a far better bet than Kazakhstan and Africa, I think the (egregiously greed) chaps who operate the FTSE, by inviting companies such as ENRC to list, endow them with the cache of respectability and 'proper audits and sound accounting'. You have to look beyond that (in my humble view, as an outsider here) and consider what and where these companies operate, and assign a volatility to them distinct from that appended to western companies. If I was committed here in any way, I would be a mere speculator, not an investor. And with say, £5K, you can enjoy the ride and have a punt, but I would not put these cows in my ISA. Their milk can turn out toxic.

This is only my opinion. And it''s not based on the price of Iron Ore. I have been wrong on plenty of occasions, and I urge you, and everyone, to be guided by their own experience and wit. This is how I behave. - Disclosure, I am not in either Rio or ENRC. I am on the sidelines and, in fact, pulling out of the market mostly. You can say I am taking a particularly cynical view, so my humble advice is to trust in yourself. I have been wrong on many an occasion, and will be again. Good luck.

I read the article. I sense the whiff of corruption here, and on that basis a 50p target for this stock is rational.

Addendum: Be wary of the CEY trap. There are too many retail punters thinking they are riding this wave to riches. But this company will never pay a dividend, And it's based in a country that will continue to sink, taking just about everything else with it. That's just my personal view And you know, I am on a short, set at 58, and we are back under that again. This is a case, surely, that if it looks too good to be true....

How are you today? I hope you are exercise some of that sunset patience that you should be cultivating in Bali! I too am looking to move out of the UK. I know I can do a lot better in warmer climes, and just running trading online. I have in mind Italy, though, or Greece (I speak Greek!) so that's where I'll be headed. - As for Rio, take a some reference from KAZ. That one is going down. I see the finger prints of the schemes all over it. Rio will likewise trace back (in my opinion) but in a more controlled way. I am honestly asking myself why markets are rising? The economic backdrop in Europe hasn't materially changed, so macro sentiment is not moving it. I am at a loss here, but I have no intention of falling into the trap of being swept up by anything. That cash hoard that Bernanke is sitting on will grow toxic by the day. And it's real growth that the US is experience, and not fabricated. As doe China, I am suspicious of their published numbers. There is too much capacity in steel, in glass, in metals, in everything. Only financial gimmickry is playing this game, so that costing an asset class is confusing. Whether we like it, or more to the more, understand it or not, financialization of the world economy is the Achilles Heel of capitalism, Personally, I am steadily drawing down my involvement in the markets, and keep it marginal. I will be pursuing the real economy instead. - As an aside, I see RIO hitting £22 and staying in a range £21 - £24. Good luck to you.

And....?

An aside, - the current debacle in Cyprus really expresses the fact that the Euro really can not continue in its present form. How can these nations ever pay down their debt with growth stifled by austerity? I think a good plan is for the Southern members (perhaps including France) to withdraw from the Euro, and set in train a 10 - 20 year plan to converge back with it. As long as a blueprint is laid out for rejoining at some future date, then that should take the sting out of leaving (actually, being forced out). Also, there is no need to roil market's if this thing is handled in a mature way, and then growth, in its various manifestations, would become evident in both north and southern Europe.

I do sincerely apologize if I disconcerted anyone. It is surely worthwhile having a range of opinions - not everyone believes as you that the price will just continue on up. And as for Intel, many have made the mistake of misreading and underestimating its potential. You cannot compare ARM with Intel. The speculators ARE banking on intel, with its cash hoard, making a bid. But it won't. It has a culture on in-house development. It's processors are more than good, they are outstanding. And it has he industrial might to back its ambitions. - But my point is a single one - Intel won't buy ARM, (that's my bet, anyway) and I will start shorting this stock not because I don't believe ARM have done magnificently (they have) but speculators don't care a jot about this company or its products. They are not committed to anything of substance. They are the ones who caused the financial crisis and, yes, they will do so again, because that's their nature. For my part, I am just riding this speculative wave as best I can. I would rather be an investor (as I used to be) but these criminal speculators will not allow me to. So I am forced to gamble. And on that basis, reach decisions and take positions. Some pay off, some don't. However, as my comments have proved upsetting, I will not post here anymore, and wish all (genuine) investors well in their endeavours.

With a yield of 0.48, this is a speculators' stock. They are banking on Intel making a bid for ARM. I don't see that happening at all, so will not buy. ARM should be 450 a share, not 950.

Aside from the very good management of Willy Walsh, I can see no sound reason for this to be rising. Emirates, Etihad, adn the other airlines will pound BA. The Spanish are a side show. - Disclosure: I will take a short here.

I get the feeling that, contrary to habit, the speculators are starting to look ahead, and thus taking Rio down as a consequence. I think once it reaches this new range, it will remain there for quite some time. I don't see any buying opportunity, but if you do, I wish you the best of luck!

Hi, if I may be permit to give voice an opinion (a sensitive point here) while charts have served you well in the past, perhaps you need step back and think in other ways aside from the technicals. I am in no mind to take any notice of charts, I am looking elsewhere, and I think Rio, will subside more yet. Good luck!

There is something afoot out there, and am not sure if it economic or political or both. I missed shorting KAZ yesterday, as I knew that was a fake bounce - set up to dupe gullible buyers into imagining that the 700s are back for that one. Averaging down is not advised, not at these levels. Some stocks, for whatever reason, are being 'driven' and not correcting in the normal 'technical' sense. Good luck, and will watch and study closely. PS. I feel the same pattern may emerge in Rio. Be mindful of who, not what, you are dealing with.

It's as if these markets are trying to induce losses for algorithms, so that any hedge fund relying on computerized projections are prone to a rout, and I would not use logic at all. Ditto for your trading in KAZ. I see that one barreling down to around 380 ish.

Nothing is making any sense. This is not a traders' market, it's a speculators one. There is a glut of iron ore, copper, aluminium, zinc, tin, etc. This is compounded by the warehouses whose holdings are distorting prices left right and center. Lastly, you have a US dollar on steroids. The market may be irrational, but I have not intention of becoming so. I am out of the market. Not going long on anything. I will probably take out some shorts when I think the speculators have pumped up the price, but not yet. Good luck!