Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Thanks, Autonomy.
Value all opinion. I remember when the financial crash happened there was a director or an institution offloading huge amounts posting every day their holdings. It was so frustrating after such hard falls to see Kaz being down 1% when RIO Xtrata and others were going up 5% daily. Nothing to say this is happening now though but I am always cautious about KAZ.
Rastuss, what makes you think this is subject to Carson's attack? I am just choosing between RIO and KAZ and must say was worried that KAZ fell 20% yesterday and RIO only 10% or so. I am hoping however for a bigger rises in KAZ on the way up.
The key question - is it a corona related shock and the markets will recover after that or is it just the tip of the iceberg of the bigger systemic recession akin to 2008 with a long bear market, bankruptcies, financial institutions bail-outs etc. I was subscribing to the first school of thought I think until yesterday but now I am not sure 2008 financial crisis won't be repeated.
Anyways - I will have some funds this week to invest, but I am beginning to wonder, to be honest. What seemed like a minor bump is now a major pandemic. Seeing the carnage on Monday, I am just concerned whether today or tomorrow is a good time to average down. Or even next week. Asia seems to be recovering and Kazakhstan is not affected but all eyes are on Europe and USA at the moment.
Causal - again, do you understand English? Seriously, man. First - even your quote is not correct. Second - I was saying that making unfounded "finger in the sky predictions" is not helpful. I COULD say that KAZ will be 450p by end of week BUT there would be as much science in making a statement like that, therefore I don't. It is like explaining this to my 4yo.
Do you understand English? I never said anything of that sort.
Im actually looking for a good entry. Have about 2/3 to invest but a bit biting my nails whether to wait until Monday.
Causal - can you offer a bit of analysis when you predict these doom & gloom scenarios. Saying "I could see" and "this could" is not helpful. We all know it can and could. I could also see it smashing 450p by the end of the week - as much science in this statement. You know that the price of copper has recovered today to the levels of last Thursday when KAZ traded at 420p. The corona focus has shifted from China (the most important market for KAZ) to Italy (absolutely of no relevance). So what are the hard facts behind your dead cat bounce and crash by the end of the week predictions?
I honestly would not be surprised if they did this. Of course KAZ would continue to go down regardless:) The copper is now back at 2.520 and why should it not be, common it is grotesque that Russia's and Saudi Arabia's failure to agree to cut the production of oil and Saudi's going to all out war on this should have such a strong repercussions for other commodities as the early trading suggested. I have seen some oilers now less down than KAZ, c'mon, seriously. I am only hoping it stays like this until the end of the week as I would then have access to more funds to invest.
From what I have seen and read on this topic so far, my understanding is that there needs to be some fundamental, structural changes to the supply/demand forces governing the copper market for the price to go below the low of August 2019 (which, in itself, is nowhere near the prices suggested by some of the learned friends here). Such change would for example, be the new tariffs by the US against China. CV-19 shenanigans and media scaremongering will affect the KAZ sp, but not so much the price of copper. The published figures over the weekend about the copper imports rising in China in Jan-Feb just go to show that copper demand is not solely determined by the CV-19 ebbs and flows and there are other, more determinative, forces at play here. Short term, yes, I will not be surprised if KAZ sp goes lower, but this will be done at the expense of the few faint-hearted who will only have themselves to blame when the dust settles and the price is completely different in 1-2 months. A lot of copper mines are simply not feasible even at these prices, which means less supply, which, in turn, means, higher prices. As simple as that. Good luck all!
Difficult times, feel for all the owners. I do believe this is grossly oversold and presents one of the best P/E ratios in the industry at the moment. All of these of course does not matter at the moment, but will in time. What I noticed about KAZ though is that it rises in the same non-sensical manner as it falls, look at the recent example of it going from 438 to 530 or thereabouts at the height of the corona crisis in China. Not sure we will see that repeated just yet but once the fear subsides this should rise to healthy levels.
550p price target
https://shareprices.com/news/broker-forecast-jp-morgan-cazenove-issues-a-broker-note-on-kaz-minerals-plc--zg7x2htd69kuz5g
Yes, you are right.
The revenues would be down, but the gold would guarantee servicing the debt come what may, would it not?
And I think the extremely pessimist scenario of copper being 2.20 (or whatever your TA suggests, sorry did not check) is already reflected in the price. And I doubt it will fall as much or stay there for long.
"and then it doesnt matter how much gold is"
But why?
Autonomy1
I am aware of the debt but it does not strike me as a big problem. If copper price falls then dozens of production sites will close and it will rise again. And what about the price of gold? Gold will always be in demand regardless of COVID-19 and this is what is being completely dismissed at the moment in KAZ sp. Look at the other gold miners. So, yeah, you are right, but I think it should be under control.
Hi there, have a few in my ISA at 447 and added a few this week at 420. Have big hopes for KAZ, like the economics and the costs of production, as well as the copper/gold balance. Obviously all that does not matter for the time being but again bear in mind that people were happily buying KAZ at 530 at the height of CV-19 crisis in China so why should not they buy at 415 when the tide begun to turn.
Stronger today than the peers. I think for KAZ the main news is China and there are signs of the virus being brought under control there. Of course there will be widespread repercussions for the copper demand in China due to the virus but I think the sp at the moment has factored all these risks in. KAZ is also a major producer of gold, the price of which is going through the roof. It seems to me to be a good entry point at this level especially given than the spring is around the corner and it is already 17 degrees in Wuhan. Onwards and upwards.
Am also surprised. Copper is up, all the peers up by the healthy percentage, KAZ has to catch up. Noticed in the past, KAZ does not always move in parallel with the counterparts.