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There was a big drop in copper prices after the price of oil dropped following the Saudis and Russians failing to agree. I see Trump is under a lot of pressure from the US shale producers, and makes various moves to bring the oil prices to more acceptable levels. As it is in no-one's interest, I think the price of oil will go up over the short period of time. The copper should follow - it was at 2,400+ levels before the crash. Combined with demand from China (and any possible economic incentives the Chinese Government may announce), I see a lot of positives from these levels for copper.
When it is on the upward trajectory, hell and high water, it just keeps on going up. Same was in Feb when it went from 430 to 530 despite a barrage of bad news. A lot of shares are actually very strong at the moment, look at the gold miners like CEY and HGM. I am wondering if it is the corona-effect of people sitting at home on whatever savings they have and putting them to use as there are limited other options of making money at the moment.
Hard to predict where KAZ moves next - it looks like we had a double-bottom, so I guess 260p is now the solid floor to jump from. On the other hand, with so many people sitting eagerly on the sidelines and so little use for cash in bank saving accounts, KAZ can quickly retrace back to mid-400s as long as there is no apocalypse scenario. People who were successfully day-trading it for 10-15% would simply be left behind and miss out on much bigger gains. I know the feeling of jumping the train prematurily - almost as bad as buying in too early.
...and oil
2,230 now. Everything I am reading points to the general increase for the use of copper. Broker predictions at the end of 2019 (funny to read them, as they are) all predicted a special year for the copper. All this has changed now, but the underlying trends are intact. I've even seen anecdotal suggestions on other boards that copper is rising because Elon Mask is building rockets and will require copper for the cables etc. Don't know how serious these are but the message is that copper is one of the most in demand commodities going forward. Unlike for example, iron ore, zinc and coal.
Follows its own path last 3 days. Thought today would catch up with peers by underperforming them and it did for the most of the day but caught up and again outperformed the other miners in the end. Give us a good jump in copper and this will be back to 350p in no time.
Copper is 2,184 now so it should be higher than yesterday.
Very worrying action overnight in copper with it falling below 2,000 at some point. Now back to pretty much where we stopped yesterday - 2,150. Intensified by the dollar strength but hopefully bounces from these levels to more feasible 2,300 and thereabouts.
Also, if you think about it, KAZ is sort of the equivalent to Saudi Arabia in the oil price war - it can survive the low prices, there are many that will have to stop production at these level, no question about it. So, in the world where everybody is now worried about the demand, rather than supply, lines, KAZ is in the position where because of the reduced supply, there is enough demand for its products to keep it going.
they do use diesel for trucks, but I agree, it is not a major expense.
It is going up again and outperforming the peers - again, a pleasant mystery to me, perhaps some big buyers. But also, in all fairness, if I was looking to buy any miner in the world right now, I would choose KAZ - heavily oriented on China which is re-opening the factories and in the country not brought to a standstill by the Covid (again, touch wood).
"1. China is on the mend and re-starting again, KAZ is very little affected by corona (touch wood)."
By KAZ I of course meant Kazakhstan...
Agree - yesterday should also have been a down day for KAZ instead of 15% jump. I am not complaining, of course.
Trying to think about - the possible reasons are:-
1. China is on the mend and re-starting again, KAZ is very little affected by corona (touch wood).
2. Oil prices are down and, despite copper also going down, the profit margins are largely preserved on reduced costs of production.
3. KAZ overshot the peers on the way down and has some room to move up to correlate.
4. KAZ has the one of the cheapest costs to extract copper to the surface.
Thanks, and just to rest my case, Italy's figures just reported:-
Yesterday (new cases/mortalities): 3,590/368
Today: 3,233/349.
Haha, I gave you the hard numbers from the website which reports them daily. Nothing to do with my believes. The numbers today are lower than yesterday across almost all but a few countries in both the new cases and the mortalities columns. You rebutted this with a report that Germany closed its borders - surely a huge deal and hard proof that things are "getting worse". I was not talking about economy et al, so your passages about recession etc are irrelevant. I was just replying to Colonel Drake that corona headlines are going to get worse. There is no proof and no indication of that.
Yes, a perfect example of choosing just the negative bits and reporting them. Makes you wonder what the whole thing is about and what purposes the media reporting is trying to serve.
C'mon, guys. Sunday was yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Spain: 1,597 cases yesterday - 1,203 today
Iran: 1,209 cases yesterday - 1,053 today
Germany: 1,214 cases yesterday - 859 today
UK: 251 yesterday - 152 today.
The same can be seen across all the countries with many reporting no deaths for today. Italy and France will report later. And yesterday was a better day than Saturday. These are the facts.
Look at the number of cases yesterday and the reported cases today. Considerable reduction. You can dismiss it to various factors but that is extrapolation. I am looking at the hard numbers and they tell me completely different picture than what is being painted by the media, including in the countries you mentioned (Italy will report later).
"Problem for markets is that the headlines on Corona are going to get worst"
They are better today both in Europe and Asia if you look at new cases and the number of deaths, but of course when the media ignores that and concentrates on "the number of cases elsewhere has now surpassed China", I guess, you may be right.
I think there is an automatic stop when they are down 5%.
Having said that, bought more shares in KAZ, averaging down big time. Not 260p like some lucky ones but some reasonable average in mid to higher 300s which would hopefully allow to be in the blue this year.