Member Info for SeaTank8300

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/12/11/crude-production-increased-by-177000bpd-in-november-nuprc-reveals/

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nigeria-expects-oil-output-to-rise-to-1.6-mln-barrels-per-day-by-q1-2023-finance-minister

"We have been working hard with the private security contractors to return the Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) and we have succeeded to some extent, but not where we want to be. We are hoping we will open Bonny very soon."

"The security situation is now restored together with certain activities that have been carried out to revamp what we see in Forcados. Forcados is back producing, Bonny will soon be back. Yes, indeed we are back, but up to today, one of our major trunk lines we can’t use because of security. Trans Forcados is back, Trans Escravos is back, Trans Ramos is back."

"The new security architecture is structured on laid-on technology. What it does is to bring together the security and intelligence agency in one table, the regulators in the other, and then bring in what was zero, the community into the other angle and without the community, we can’t achieve that. That is why you can see we are now from 1.1mbpd daily to about 1.59bpd as of this morning. So, these are some of the things that we are able to record based on the new security architecture."

https://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2022/12/12/crude-oil-theft-nature-of-the-new-security-architecture-bala-wunti/

From the range of sources reporting on this, the new system of incorporating localised security organisations (essentially local mafia) into the security ecosystem and paying them to close down illegal bunkering operations is having a positive impact on production volumes and should continue to do so. Essentially it means sharing the benefits of oil production with the local communities and the local chiefs. We have seen this before and it has delivered results.

The improvement in news flow continues, but as yet has not been reflected in SEPL's share price.

"Following strong levels of interest in the Process from a wide range of credible and well-funded parties, the Company has now received QUANTIFIED non-binding indications of interest in the Process from SEVERAL parties and, following review, the Company intends to engage in more detail with the relevant parties. Further announcements will be made, as appropriate, in due course."

Assuming their lawyers have agreed to this text, this should imply that the quantum of financing being indicated by 3 to 5 interested parties should meet Sound's headline criteria, namely to fund their equity shortfall. It is not clear how much would be left over for themselves, post negotiation, of course.

It seems that the senior debt facility may need to be raised back to $250m as in MAD terms the facility has fallen to $210m equivalent.

Thanks for this Swatton.

This basically refers to Seplat's oil production, in proportional terms - great news. Share price has to move back above 100p in my view now the evacuation routes are largely open again.

“We were able to get the trans-Forcados pipeline back to work. And ultimately, the net effect of that is that from one million barrels three months ago, we are back to 1.5 million barrels per day. Is that our ambition? No. We believe we can get back to 2.4 million barrels per day early next year,” he revealed.

Supply side likely supportive of oil price:
https://twitter.com/energy_blogger/status/1600701898671415301?t=szRqMhX8aJnvKe0xSbSUOw&s=19

I'm already well over exposed (since a long long time) so happy simply reaping the dividend. I've said it many times, once ANOH is up and running, the dividend has to rise significantly - that's the carrot for me.

More buying today, onwards and upwards

Another high volume day. Also CFO in the market buying. The overhang must be close to done by now. A couple of large positions have been exiting due to market cap limits. Good riddance I say. Onwards and upwards.

Seplat now ISO certified
https://twitter.com/SeplatEnergy/status/1600117292955754496?t=ztIOXd4AXyB9TsaN-fRtVg&s=19

Quality operator

Fundamentals alert: the lower it goes the more attractive it is, not less attractive it is.

This will be trading >120p by the full year trading update end March IMO

Significant volume. Remaining sellers being cleared now. Further rises ahead IMO.

Backlog is pretty transparent, largely not speculative, then it's just about managing their costs.

Up another 10%

They read the outlook statement in the Interims, unlike anyone on this chat group.

Now up 23.75%. If you can't look forward you're not going to be a very good investor.

Up 20% today. But the stock is worth 130p based on an EV/EBITDA of 10x forward (March 2024) EBITDA.

That's a 3x return, almost.

NNPC is owned by the state of Nigeria which is almost bankrupt. They don't have the money to buy SEPL and wouldn't pay the control premium anyway. Also the government knows better than anyone the enormous risk of transferring operational control of companies providing 95% of fiscal revenues to an inexperienced and no doubt corrupt "state champion". It will be a national disaster on an epic scale. At least as things currently stand, competent private actors ensure the oil is flowing at a minimum level of efficiency so that the state (including military) can then pilfer from a productive ecosystem (illegal pipelines, bunkering, fiscal theft etc). If NNPC crowds out the private sector there will be much less to steal, so bad for the country and bad for the thieves. Bizarrely, this is probably the strongest argument in SEPL's favour regarding the Mobil assets. I still wager the deal will be passed. In the meantime, enjoying the almost 10% dividend yield.

October and November new business wins came to £26m, which is fantastic. That's an annual run rate of £156m. Second half ebitda of £6m is almost assured based on their budgeting. Their guidance of 10-15% revenue growth next year at 12% ebitda margin is easily achievable. The business has clearly turned a corner.

The law doesn't appear to be entirely clear, so I believe this will ultimately be a political decision.
It's going to be interesting with Buhari leaving office in March next year. I believe he can push it through. But will he do so before he leaves office? It may need to pass through the court system first, which could take months longer.

ha! No profit warning today! TPX are going to meet new guidance.