Member Info for SeaTank8300

You're right Gwillerz, so we have a day to contemplate the election outcome before Seplat drops. Good luck all

Really decent volume going through the local line though, $1.1m today and >$2m on Wednesday.
Election tomorrow, full year results Monday. Plenty of news flow to come.

I'm also hoping for a dividend raise on Monday - that at least would move the share price upwards. I reckon there is a fair chance that something materialises, even if it is minor, and if it doesn't then it will be because the board is still waiting for 1 . ANOH to be operational and 2. MPN deal to close

The dividend settled on 27 January

I want to hear that ANOH's commercial start hasn't been delayed, again. This is the key to a big increase in the dividend, but in any case I really do hope a dividend rise of some quantum comes our way.

Suggest you read my previous posts. All the information is there.
The CFO's purchases are a strong signal the bank will waiver. He owns that relationship with HSBC. He wouldnt buy if a capital raise was likely.

Also note, leadership beyond the exec team own a tonne of stock. At least a dozen senior leaders own around 30% of the company. This is a major motivator for turning around the business.

The top line is fine - costs which are in their control are the issue. Another great sign.

Finally, the bank is aligned with the shareholders because if they force massive dilution or bankruptcy and sale, the leadership will walk and the business will be worth zero to HSBC.

DYOR.

This morning's RNS related to nil cost options. Hardly a sentiment booster. I want to see further director and exec share purchases with their own money. Now is the time if there ever was one.

I too think there will be some meeting in the middle, but the contentious issue is who is the operator. MPNU could remain operator with a much smaller working interest, say 30%, but what NNPC really want is the operational body of MPNU and operating control. How this resolves itself is anyone's guess, but knowing Exxon is very against handing their people and operation to NNPC, my thinking is more towards NNPC taking a much greater share of working interest in return for accepting Seplat gets MPNU.

40 vacancies listed on their website:
https://careers.tpximpact.com/vacancies/vacancy-search-results.aspx

Talk of Seplat taking a much smaller stake in MPN to get the deal over the line. Could be rumour.

There is a lot of hiring going on for a business about to "forced into bankruptcy by their bank" - obviously it's nonsense and they won't be

Unbelievable buying opportunity, IMO

https://creativepool.com/jobs/Senior-PR-and-Media-Relations-Manager-job-in-London.151313

Why would someone but this? Why would the management and operating leadership who own circa 30% sell at less than £2?

Not going to happen.

This is a Buy because the leadership will turn margin around, back to 12%+, grow organically, and return to a multiple of 10x EV/EBITDA, IMO.

Great to see buyers coming in to take the sellers out in volume
1.9m shares traded today, which is more than 2% of the shareholder register

threeputt, i can't argue against your risk aversion, as breaking covenant is a serious thing and can spell the end for equity holders. A couple of things to bear in mind though, in this instance. The business is lead by around 15-20 execs who were acquired by the holding company, so the business will be worth zero to HSBC if they force a bankruptcy and full loss to equity owners, as these guys will all walk away. The business only has value being turned around, in my view, even if a trade sale is to be made, ultimately. I would also point out that these people are in the business of making businesses more efficient with technology and systems/processes. I eat my hat if they can't do it for their own business. TPX underinvested in management systems and personnel, we know that, but that is being rectified, which is a key reason for the decline in profitability. As for the HR/fixed cost issue, we know employee turnover is falling, use of consultants is falling, and if they can't improve consultant utilisation in the DX division they will have to either internally shuffle resource to other parts or make layoffs. None of this is rocket science and they are not being squashed by competitive forces - actually their new business trajectory is upwards. In all, the risk is there, perhaps of a capital raise, but in all likelihood they'll squeak through without one. The odds of this gamble are pretty reasonable. Even if they do require a capital raise, in my view it will be small, perhaps £5m, so management can support it, which would be 25% dilution, not nice, but would send the stock upwards as the covenant issue would no longer be an issue. I can't see this going to 1p or whatever to raise capital as those in management who couldn't support such a capital raise would be diluted to nothing and it would be politically unacceptable to do. In short, this is most likely the bottom. And as they say, profit warnings come in threes. This was the third!

Data I'm seeing shows Marlborough Nano Cap Growth fund purchased 800,000 shares in January

Investor relations tells they hope the covenant waiver should come after HSBC receives their reworked cash flow budget for financial year 2024 which is process and will feed into their updated guidance for this coming year's revenue and margin outlook; and also that TPX is hiring circa 70 full time positions this current quarter to replace contractors in areas where contractor use has been too heavy. As the trading update disclosed, importantly, new business has been strong, therefore the focus is on adjusting aspects of their cost base to return to a better level of profitability.

My view: this year has been a disaster with various mishaps and EBITDA margin down to 2% from north of 15%; insider buying suggests confidence they can turn profitability around. Only 3 months ago they were assuming 12% margin was an achievable target for next year. They only require 10% EBITDA margin on £90m revenue to bring them back within the covenant, and indeed even that would place them on an EV/EBITDA of around 4x.

There's some very keen buying going on - bid now at 115p

It's definitely an unusual size of move up now - I'm seeing bid at 114.50
Great to see the share on the front foot again!

Once it starts moving, it can go a long way. Most signals have been supportive lately: Nigerian oil production figures recovering; rising local share price on higher volume; oil price steady; silence from the regulator re the MPN deal; Peter Obi in the lead for President in elections later this month; big purchases of SEPL by Sustainable Capital who know more about this company than any other investor out there.

Thanks Damofarl, likewise, I feel the same way, it's nice this board is tight on cordial sharing of information + views. Please do forward IR's response, if they bother to reply. I find SEPL IR rather sleepy and uninterested in replying to emails usually!

Thanks Dartron, yee will do that, but I do hate taking a loss!

I hear you Damofarl but as I see it the Nigerian pool of stock is a shrinking pool, as the flow between exchanges is effectively one-way, from Nigeria to London. Nobody wants to own an NGN denominated asset, so nobody would switch their GBP shares for NGN shares. What we don't know is what is happening to traded stock in Nigeria. If it's the local pension funds buying, it'll stay local, but if it's an entity with the intent of offshoring NGN to GBP, it will move into the London pool. That's how I see it. So one way flow, but how much we can't tell. So the London float must surely be inching upwards, but slowly. I'd love to see the data for where the stock is in custody - such info is probably only available to the company itself. Maybe it's worth asking the question.