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I'd fear a wipeout much more had the company no assets just goodwill. The oil in the ground is worth a great deal to someone and in a jurisdiction such as USA it will attract many bids.

I've been reassuring myself that this isnt a lost investment. For me, much is about the leadedship team. Excluding Erick Harris Grant who owns 10% of the company, there are 10 others with approx £10m "invested" as at the time of their respective acquisitions. These ten company leaders have seen the value of their hard work annihilated in a merely a year. In my view they owe it to themselves and their employees to fix TPX. In my view they can do it, now that TPX has a competent CEO and CFO, hired externally, with industry expertise.

This is real incentive. Thank goodness they are all locked in.

Well, for one thing, we're all now primed for a take-out at 20p and we'll still be happy as Larry!

That's correct, there is no new placing...YET.

Question: the tap facility of $4m - is this fully committed by the anchor convertible bond investor at COPL's discretion? If that is the case, COPL obviously has a cash flow deficit greater than $4m between now and when it can achieve proper refinancing. This tap facility was agreed a month ago, right - surely cash requirements aren't so very much greater than $4m? What's the monthly cash burn here? It's mighty strange that COPL is making an announcement like this instead of going back to bondholders for additional financing - unless they've all said ENOUGH.

"The Company has engaged with numerous US and International banks and institutional debt investors and expects to secure a term sheet based on its 2022 year-end reserve report for the Wyoming Assets, which is expected to be available in late February 2023" - reserve lending term sheet is expected in a couple of weeks. If this is true, bridge financing to get the company over the line will be forthcoming.

Supposedly there is a JV in negotiation. This will become a full asset sale if the asset has value, IMO. Timing and cash flow requirements have crushed the company, but if there is indeed an interested party engaged in negotiations, a cash flow bridge will be found, albeit at a cost, and the company will be sold at a more reasonable valuation than the market is currently ascribing.

On decent volume, $1.1m traded

Local line is up 10% today - augurs well

Government entities haven't been the problem here as far as i can see. The issue has been a messed up integration of acquired companies.

I wouldn't suggest gamble your life savings on this stock, but in my view the odds of this gamble are very good indeed.

Someone is dumping their holding at any price, probably an institution that cant hold at this market cap level; the board chat is all about bankruptcy; nobody is looking at fundamentals.

I've tried to offer balanced insight having known this company well for a number of years, but been told I'm overly optimistic and this company could be forced into administration at any moment. Well, I simply don't agree and have explained why. Primarily, because the company is not bleeding cash and has levers to pull.

The bottom line for me is that there are too many senior management here with their life savings at stake to let this company spiral into bankruptcy. Several former owners of acquired businesses, two ex executives, current CEO and CFO with skin in the game and much to lose. Don't underestimate the internal will to fix this.

https://www.techmarketview.com/ukhotviews/archive/2023/01/31/tpximpact-revises-down-revenue-and-profit-guidance

Fair assessment

Dartron you don't seem to be balanced here. You will presumably know the CFO invested in 250k shares lately with his own hard earned cash pre-TPX, with the last purchase of 50k being in December. He is a very experienced financial controller from WPP, which itself is a consultancy that also grew largely by acquisition. He knows how to budget and forecast. 250k shares is a meaningful statement, for you to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. The CEO has also invested meaningfully.

All the other business owners have equal incentive, starting with Erick Harris Grant who owns 10% but followed by all the others recently acquired. Trust me when I say "all hands are on deck".

On your comment about bankruptcy, you are foolish to suggest it, that their bankers wouldn't give them a waiver for a period of time given solid top line, little cash burn, and all likelihood of fixing profitability. The bank would receive nothing from administration with no assets. It won't happen. Indeed, if TPX must do so, they would rather shrink and right-size their capability to capacity meanwhile improving profitability. I guess this is partly why they have guided down revenue for this year - better to slow and maintain delivery credibility and profitability. It would also be wise for them to implement contract price hikes or stand back from new projects. There are various levers to pull.

Insiders have spent a small fortune buying stock since the previous profit warning, including the new CEO and CFO. The CFO purchased shares even up to 5 December, at >50p! He obviously doesn't think the business is at risk. But, he also doesn't have very good visibility on the business himself even, as his detailed revised budgets were totally missed!

They have been winning new business at a hell of a pace, £41m last quarter and £9m this past month. Top line isn't the problem, obviously! But can they deliver the work in pipeline and profitably?

The problem is staffing issues and staff turnover - this is the **** show. In particular, good people have been leaving and there are too many contract staff!

Also central costs seem to be rising too much, hence gross margin down 3 or 4% but EBITDA margin has collapsed to 3%

In my view these are short term challenges that can be fixed. That said, it's not going to be easy and will take some time. 1. Reduce staff turnover, 2. Reduce contract staff, 3. Improve staff utilisation, 4. Dilute central costs!

Most probably!

This roll up strategy hasn't worked out for them, obviously.

To be fair the new CEO and CFO had been buying shares with their own cash at the approximate time Oliver Rigby sold his - I believe they honestly looked at the regained top line momentum and figured they could steer the ship to calmer waters. They undertook a detailed analysis of forecasts and believed in their margin forecast for the remainder of the year and 2024. The margin deterioration has obviously come as a surprise to them. They need to stabilise and repair the staffing situation, which is clearly volatile and tricky to fix. I'm just pleased that the former management are gone.

The business model (when it hums) is a cash generative one, fundamentally. Working capital demands are low. Even now they are not hemoraging cash. The issue is their margins have been destroyed by use of contractors and staff walking, so they are not generating cash either. Obviously they need improve margins and generate cash again. As I said, a **** show.

Staff turnover and heavier use of contractors is undermining the business model - they need to stabilise the staffing side and improve retention of their best people. Centralisation of these previously strong businesses they acquired has disrupted the culture and staff moral. What a **** show it is there at the moment.

It is certainly not dead in the water!

The numbers speak for themselves. If you want a tasty burger, a cold beer, a well made ****tail, or a decent coffee, at a reasonable price point, then Loungers is the place for you and most of Britain is voting with their feet (in through the door). There's a long runway for further openings across Britain and no interest in London, which is smart. This is a great business. I hope they can keep the cosy culture as they expand.

On Brightside, I see the market for this - it's not just about picking up traffic on long journeys, it's about offering a decent local place for all the above to more rural or semi-urban locations where there is nowhere to go within a 15 minute drive. That's how I see it anyway. If they do a good job with Brightside, I reckon they'll be filled with people, mostly local.

Their long term utilities hedge a couple of years ago was really smart, or lucky. By the time they need to renew this, utility prices will have normalised I reckon. I'm not worried about inflation with these guys anyway - their product is strong enough to manage through it alright.

Haven't heard from Busterhogdog lately

Thanks Edgein. Isn't such a narrow focus on talks with a single potential partner a risk given COPL's limited funding runway. It just doesn't seem that conservative. They have to close a deal with this entity or will be in trouble. Their hand is exposed and puts them in a weaker negotiating position too. Perhaps I'm looking at this the wrong way.