Member Info for SeagullsFan

@wyn.

Shame there's no emoticons - I'll flip you the bird mate ;)

Too soon? ;)

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Here's to the next 10 days or so. Wonder if we'll hit 10p if the results exceed expectations.

Thanks Wyn. Bigger rocket on the launch pad;)

@Amin.
I don’t ’use’ charts for trading. It was posted as a bit of fun as I made the comment in the original post that I’m not a charts person.

Also, there appears to be a number of sizeable trades going through (7 figures in terms of shares).

Next week will sure be fun guys.

Looking at the 1m/5m/15m/30m charts, they are all showing a decent trend line (from what I can see and I confess to not being a charts person). So, it would appear that sentiment has changed finally. Let's hope we get a strong end to the day.

Waiting for Wyn to come along and mark my effort now ;-).

@Latorre1690

Likewise here too. I hold multiple 7 figure amount, so last year I was nursing a large loss.
I still had confidence in the project, albeit I accept that there was a screw up with the mineral rig last time, and some very questionable (being polite) selling before the Tai-2 RNS release.

That being said, I know from 2 unconnected sources that they were very confident that had a discovery and just were waiting to fill the figures in on the RNS from the wireline, which we all know failed due to the washout. Cr&p happens.
That, of course, is no guarantee of success this year, but it confirms (to me anyway) that the gas is there and being trapped. Just need the discovery and us long term holders (sufferers) will be handsomely rewarded.

GLA.
SGF

@DBD

I think I'll need to be emailing her for tips then mate ;). Seems like I got the poor relation for my tips lol.

@wyn
Haha, I'm not trying to score points against you - I enjoy your posts (well, except the ones on rig damage speculation lol).

Yes, I got burnt big time on HE1 - I'm probably just about back to where I was in portfolio value from May/June last year. I've never moaned as I knew it was risky (15-20% COS), but the returns were more multiples than here. I could see that spiking to over £1 on a discovery, but here we're talking about maybe 8-10p. I have always been a risk taker - so there's no point complaining if you take a risk which doesn't work out.

As an aside in regards to HE1. I've been told by 2 completely unconnected sources with close connections to 'people in the know' that they were confident they had a discovery and were just waiting to fill in the figures from the wireline for the RNS. What screwed them was the washout meaning they couldn't wireline - not that the gas wasn't there in a reservoir. Cr&p happens.

@wyn

If you sell a stock and it bounces up 30-40%, would you view that as a 'loss'? I would guess not, as you will focus on your returns from what is invested. Trying to calculate potential missed gains would be a nightmare and you'd need a database and daily stock prices to try to ascertain that.

I accept that my money has been tied up in ADV for about 8 months and for the last few it's been reasonably static. However, overall I'm up about 55-60%, which is a very nice return IMO. That doesn't take into account the expected gains post results (on the assumption that the 95% occurs). If this doubles to circa 8p, then I'll have about a 200% overall uplift in 9 months. I bet there's very few traders who'd make that.

I also have a substantial holding in TM1 (average price of 2.06p as I was in pre-IPO with a discount so money was tied up for a few months there too). This is now trading circa 4p, so just under a 100% gain since debut end of Nov. There's a lot of good news to come with them too and I expect the SP to be around 8-10p end of this year. So, that will give me a 300-400% uplift in roughly 12 months.
I know that there will be periods where ADV and TM1 (just as 2 examples) will trade sideways or drop a bit, but I feel longer terms investors will make more returns on holding and stock picking, rather than playing the market but trying to predict the SP movements.
I hope you do well with your strategy, but it's not for me. That's not to say that I don't try to time my sells/buys when I decide to trade - I will take a few days sometimes and wait for a price which I feel is good.

@ukchips
Yep, and that should be up to 3 in a few months time hopefully.
Hopefully you'll be doubling your money in a couple of weeks - not a bad return for anyone eh! :).

I often wonder how much traders make compared to long-term investors (for example, ShareInvestment and his strategy of holding for several years and buying in early). To me, that is a much better plan, especially when you have large amounts of money to invest. It's very hard to make trading worthwhile I feel if you have a large holding in a small/fairly illiquid stock.
For example, if you hold 10m shares and want to trade 500k of them, it's only 5% of your stock - doesn't seem worth the effort, especially when you factor in spread, fees and risk of missing out.
I know traders will always focus on their gains and ignore their bad calls (for example, selling something and missing out on a spike - you haven't 'lost' money but you've missed out on potential profit).

@Amin.
Me neither - I was expecting 5 - 5.5p before results, but looks like I was wrong.
I wonder if there are still some early IPO investors who have held and are now off-loading as we're close to results. Maybe their expectations were higher than this, but they want to de-risk now. Pure speculation.
Let's hope we get an afternoon push and close over 4.2p - small steps in the right direction.

We all know that with the oil price at circa $80, the chance of development is higher then 86%. Of course, that's all that LP can actually say as he can't deviate from the RISC report, but the finances are much better in the current climate.

With the insane net-zero policies being enacted by the western governments, there will gradually be less new discoveries which will push the OP even higher. So, when production does commence, this will be throwing off much more free cash than is currently expected. Once the costs are covered, the marginal price is pure profit (subject to taxes of course). :-))

12 days time guys and we should be getting a (as Del boy would say) lubberly, jubberly RNS saying they've hit the reservoir, and then the fun will start.
The opportunities appear superb - B10 and 2 other deals under discussion.

My guess for the SP will be 12p-15p by mid year.

I follow DeepBlueDivers tips :).
He recommended ADV to me and TM1. ADV I’m up about 40% and TM1 is a bagger.
He also recommended TGR (based on SI suggestion) but not invested there yet but I plan to.

In regards of Malcys blog, there’s no such thing as bad publicity. Let’s see if we get new investors popping up (hopefully better than some of the recent morons) and some traction in the SP next week.

Thanks HMS.

Hopefully that will get some more people looking at us next week and lift the SP. It would seem that we've now bounced off the lows and will make some steady gains next week.
Any decent RNS coming out (which I believe CVN have to do due to ASX rules?) could also add some momentum. And as we'd be getting into 'results territory', any selling then would be foolish (caveat to that is those who don't want to hold all/some for the results).

Have a great weekend guys - I hope no-one panicked and sold any this week.

Slight pull back today. Happy with that as it allows us to consolidate here and then push on next week hopefully.

No idea when any news will come out (let's face it, RP is not the best at news flow), but when it come out, IF there are any signs of initial decent grade, we'll get a decent re-rate I'm sure. Mcap is still tiny and the potential is HUGE.
Interesting few months ahead guys - diamond hands needed that's for sure lol.

GLA - have a great weekend.

Must say the board is better without that constant cr8p we endured from tangiro.

@dbd
Just the start of a long journey upwards IMO.
Won't be a straight line, but by end of 2022 , this will be much higher than 4p and by end of 2023, I could quite easily see 15p+.

Steady news flow to come - so glad I got in very early. Another good tip from you ;)

My EOY price target is 8-10p. I feel with good news on the plants (throughput etc.),maybe an agreement with a car manufacturer and plans for the next plants will all be catalysts to support the SP.

That doesn’t factor in anything on the mining side either which could add some momentum too. We seem to discount that but it has potential to deliver over time IMO.

Well done to all those who topped up today. No spare funds so I wasn’t able to join in.

Let’s hope this is the bottom and we bounce up from here over the next week or so.

I have a large holding here but with an average about 14p. No plans to sell any as the mcap is tiny for the opportunity. If this comes off we’ll be very happy.

I guess it’s either in response to the interview, or maybe there’s news which some people are aware of. Hope it’s sustained going forward-every confidence this will be a good quarter for the company.