RE: Buying opportunity12 Nov 2021 10:01
you are missing the point Dave - any posting would be lost in the wailing and crying, as evidenced this morning.
I have made good profits off this since it listed at all prices and traded all the dips/sold into run ups, no matter how small.
I had an average here of 1.82p, however, the longer timeframe for WRB announcement, meant I sold a further half of my holding at 1.4p - I could sense it wasn't going to be a great result - Judging by todays rns - it was a good call. Once the dust settles, this may present a good trading op again.
my take for what its worth...
they intentionally drilled in an area with less fractures in an attempt to address the risk of water issues they have faced on other wells - whilst this has appeared to have worked, it has had the consequence of lower bopd - they will have had that on the risk profile as a possible. Despite what has been said, technically it is a success and generating revenue - the drill has provided further data and the sidetrack will take place after JKT - they won't do this before, as they do need to get a bit of cash in, even if it is just wages money for the locals.
I would recommend some people actually read the CPR - it does clearly state in there that many of the wells they tested in west rustavi were giving between 9 and 14 bpd . Even the brokers note indicated that there was a likelyhood that work may not even generate anything. Those that only read the possible thousands and thousands of bopd in the promos that talked of historical production in some areas etc will have been investing without seeing this downside risk. That risk being that any work done, would end up with single digit bopd again, after initial plateau. Even documents on researchgate that discuss geology in norio talks of 250bopd and then down to less than a tenth of that figure, in a few months.
see section 5 in doc below - production....
Between 1977 and 1984 Georgia experi-enced peak production rates of almost70,000 b/d (equals some 3.3 million t of oilper year) before overexploitation and insuf-ficient reservoir management resulted in a drastic rise of the water cut against a dra-matic drop of the oil rate. Production from the other fields has always stayed at a low to rather marginal level.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291835885_Georgia_-_Petroleum_Geologic_Link_from_the_Black_Sea_to_the_Caspian_Region
at 50bopd it will take about 18 months to payback.
As for cash - the last audit indicated being good until June 2022 assuming wrb1 produces -which it is, just about.
After JKT/b1 sidetrack there won't be any drilling for a while and it is likely that they will focus on existing wells to maintain production.
PH is on record stating that they will need further funds to progress their plans for the other parts of the acreage - so there will be financing on the horizon.
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