this is likely to drop lower over the coming days and maybe weeks, as a number of those buying today are hoping for the proverbial dead cat bounce after such a large drop at the open.
There are LTH buying as well and I will be adding also, just not today - let the dust settle first - wait for the 10% ers to clear out tonight and see if it drifts lower on boredom and pessimism. If it bounces day traders will book a profit, if it doesn't, they will still be out at the close.
a decent result with OPEC and the US will lift things, however, I am not expecting much from them until covid lockdowns are removed around the world - lower oil prices are needed at the moment. As soon as lockdowns start lifting and people start getting back to normal, an agreement will be reached, oil will move up and so will blocks share price.
if they do nothing else at all, other than get the gas infrastructure in place and then begin selling, they will bring in £96k a month, according to them.
The acquisitions and drilling can wait for now.
With cash in the bank and a £51k a month running cost, they can easily operate like this for a considerable amount of time.
Lets say this drags on for a year - they spend £612k on basic running costs and do absolutely eff all else, no driling etc- they are then left with £2.1m in cash. less any money spent getting things like the EPF installed.
If they want to drill - they need more cash - that much is sure.
currently £2.76m in cash £381k in oil stored. Monthly cash burn £51k after reduction.
We are effectively in care and maintenance mode for a few months at least.
Assuming six months of this is £510k spent on keeping things going.
Gas sales commence H2 2020 - Well, I guess that is sometime between July and December.
Once they do get gas up and running, then initial revenue is £96k a month - they assume.
I see the gas infrastructure etc being put together, the 3d being analysed and an expectation of oil being sold, once OPEC and the US get their act together, but nothing else for a few months at least. They have a good chance of coming through this and building a decent gas business with some oil.
I expect a fundraise later this year or debt financing to show up - preferably not the convertible unsecured loan notes. Any sight of the names Riverfort, hendersons, dolphin and their death spiral financing and I am off, even at a loss.
The Georgian government has amended a decree issued on March 23 adding types of economic activities authorized under the state of emergency regulations which are effective until April 21. Oil and gas production companies, as well as businesses adopting remote work model will now be permitted to resume operations.
In addition, Zenith will fund AAOG's share of an up to US$5.5 million work programme to be agreed post-Completion, and the amount of any signature bonus required for the renewal of the License as agreed with the Congolese Ministry of Hydrocarbons, subject to a cap of US$2 million if the signature bonus is payable in a single instalment and otherwise at an amount to be agreed between the AAOG and Zenith if the signature bonus is payable in multiple instalments.
Under the terms of the LOI, the Strategic Investment would be subject to a number of conditions including the completion of the publicly announced Tunisian Acquisition, as well as the successful acquisition of two oil production licenses currently being negotiated with a national oil authority in West Africa (as announced on March 12, 2020).
Tunisia - yep stated clearly.
Final stage negotiations with a national authority in West Africa for an oil production asset, formerly operated by a major international oil company, which last produced at a rate in excess of 1,000 barrels of oil per day. Zenith is pleased to confirm that negotiations have now been extended to also include the possible acquisition of a second asset, operated by an international oil major, currently producing 600 barrels of oil per day. The Company believes that the potential acquisition of the aforementioned assets represents a significant opportunity to materially increase Zenith's near-term oil production and, in turn, achieve sizeable revenue generation upside.
.,. There are two assets referenced in this. Todays Rns Could mean both these assets or could just mean the first and tilapia - clear as mud as usual.
There is no direct mention of tilapia in the announcement today, however, the skeptic in me says, that we may see a fund raise off the back of the rise today - to "pay for something somewhere"