Member Info for Scot126

*Noba

Nova - the ASX moves up or down in pre-set increments. When a stock is priced in single digit Aussie cents, the increments are fixed at tenths of a cent. Trust that helps.

07:24
C'mon Sailplane, you're more intelligent than that. Value accretion to shareholders pays no heed to shares on issue. Rather it's the increase in mkt cap (SOI x SP) which sees value delivered to shareholders.

Enough of this SOI nonsense. If people insist on conflating SOI with the value of an entity then head over to the 88E forum. Or head over to Twitter where someone replied to me yesterday with scary levels of confidence that of course PANR is years ahead of 88E in data collection, look at their respective share prices!!! Jeepers.

Btw, PANR is today valued c.40% higher than 88E....despite its resource being 7-9x larger in scale, superior reservoir quality, years ahead in data collection, successful flow tests in 4 different locations (v's zero for 88E). The market will not permit this mathematical absurdity to continue into perpetuity. It never does.

Miner4 - simple question for you. PANR's mkt cap is c.£200m and 88E's is c.£130m. Ball park, ok? PANR has many multiples of OIP and TRR, even contingent resource.....my calculations suggests about 7x - 9x more oil. In addition, PANR's acreage sees more favourable geological characteristics due to depth of reservoir and Dmax calculations. And, as you correctly note3d, PANR is literally years ahead in data collection.

So you tell me, Miner4, why is PANR's mkt cap about 50-60% higher than 88E's when the fundamentals and facts of the two investment cases point to PANR being worth 3x 88E (I argue PANR should be 7x the market cap of **E on any given day with the data publicly available fwiw).

Miner4 - just had a horrible thought, please don't tell me you think PANR is 50x the value of 88E because its shares are trading at c.25p and 88E's are at 0.5p??????? We know a number of members of this forum actually think the stockmarket works this way....are you another one of them??!!

Part 2, continued from below.

Finally, if you point blank refuse to believe anything other than 88E having discovered the answer to the USA's energy requirements for the next 4 centuries, then that's cool. But be under no illusion that PANR contains 7x - 9x the volume of oil on its acreage v's 88E; PANR is years further along the journey towards proof of concept than 88E; PANR has reached the threshold of 100% geological CoS and 88E hasn't; has flow tested multiple horizons across 4 locations v's zero for 88E.......and yet the market values an 88E barrel in the ground at around 2x - 3x that of a barrel of oil in PANR's acreage.

These are all incontrovertible facts. Posters on this forum will shout and swear at me but they won't offer any evidence to rebut my assertions and calculations. Until they do so, anyone buying 88E today is playing a massive game of pass the parcel in a game completely unwedded to the fundamentals and the facts of the investment case. /end

Not drilling through to the Kuparuk? Tick, exactly as I forecast months ago.
Presence of hydrocarbons complete with lots of pretty purple pictures and fluorescence? Tick, exactly as I forecast months ago.

Now, that's not to say Hickory-1 hasn't been successful. It has.......***but only to a point***.

To those tempted to punt on 88E following this news, please be aware of the following.

1) Hickory-1 will not be flow tested until January '24 at the earliest. I'm simply stating the bleedin' obvious that the market, especially American commentators on Alaska E&P projects, massively belittle any discovery claims *prior* to a flow test, and in PANR's case even a Long Term Production Test. Bluntly, 88E's northern neighbour is two steps ahead of 88E in having completed a short term flow test on the Alkaid ZOI *and* a LTPT and the market values these PANR barrels at a lower price than non-flow tested barrels on 88E acreage. This is a mathematical fact. If you're going to argue with me on this point, kindly provide your mathematical workings. Multiple posts swearing at scot126 will not change the maths of this factual statement one iota.

2) The BFF reservoir (Upper and Lower combined) is by far the largest on PANR's acreage. Let's call it c.80% of the volume of OIP and TRR. It may very well end up being a higher % than that, but let's say it's 80%. It is that reservoir in particular which appears to have characteristics which make it *less* likely to be economic the deeper the deposition.

3) I doubt anyone will seek to argue this point but I'll just state it for the record. It is highly, highly likely, to the point of almost being definitive, that 88E will have to raise further capital to fund the flow test of the BFF, SFS and SMD at Hickory-1 in the next winter season. I appreciate the company's non-specific update on the cost of drilling Hickory-1 but please be aware that the completion, perforation, stimulation (?) and flow testing phases of a well are still (unfortunately) pretty expensive so another $5m - $7m if they are to test up to 6 distinct horizons? Don't get me wrong, flow-testing is no bad thing. It's just a costly but wholly necessary part of E&P projects in Alaska.

4) In the scenario where 88E does indeed attract some social media led hype over the next 24-48 hours. For those desperate not to be spiked by those seeking to take advantage of them, look at the thousands of historical examples on AIM where a period of operational hiatus (May '23 until January '24 for Hickory-1) will inevitably see the "fast money", "swing trader" and "trader" fast money depart, safe in the knowledge they'll be able to get back in (if they desire) in December '23.

Pleasant surprise seeing the cash at hand of $10.8m.

No surprise (to me) to read PANR hasn't applied for an extension to the Alkaid-2 flaring permit from the SoA. Good to note the Alkaid-2 well bore is now being prepared for a vertical flow test in "late Spring or Summer". Excellent news; now formally confirmed at Alkaid-2 complete with timetable.

I note the SLB-managed dataroom nearly ready to be opened. I don't understand why it hasn't opened yet as Bob appeared to give the webinar audience guidance that it would have been opened by now, correct? Anyhoo, sounds imminent.

I liked the fighting talk from Jay. Now that the "secretive" lease strategy has been completed the company intends to raise the profile of the company and its assets within the sector and investment markets. Good. I would suggest, politely but bluntly, that shareholders will be monitoring activity and progress on that front extremely closely. I look forward to management displaying their decades of sector experience, opening up their rolodexes and getting the message out there, far and wide and loudly!

Good stuff.

05:55
Totally up to you if you "ignore" the PANR comparison thing of course, but it would be extremely unwise to do so. How so? Whether you like it or not, since these two listed companies share non-equal (in quantity and geological quality) portions of a number of reservoirs then comparisons will be made. All the rocket emojis in the world are not going to persuade the investment markets that 88E's barrels are worth more than PANR's barrels if PANR has 9x more barrels on their acreage v's 88E *and* PANR's share of the reservoirs are chiefly updip of 88E's.

To continue to bury your head in the sand on this issue is certainly your choice. After the last two drilling seasons, it seems the market is no longer being swayed this season by the "rocket emoji social media crowd". You may not wish to incorporate comparative valuation in your investment strategy but it seems the market is doing so this season more than the previous two seasons.

06:30
Hmmm, chrisev1, not sure you're understanding the locations correctly. Alkaid-2 is miles up the road and flow-tested the Alkaid ZOI. Hickory-1 is 500ft south of the LEASE BOUNDARY but I don't know what you're going on about when you refer to "PANR's board decision to drill even closer to our drill"? That's just made up gibberish, chrisev1.

You're likely referring to PANR guiding that they're aiming to flow test the SMD at Alkaid-2 and/or Alkaid-1? You clearly have no idea that Alkaid-1 is located *further* away from Hickory-1 than Alkaid-2!!!

There are a couple of reasons PANR wishes to flow test the SMD at either A2 or A1. Firstly, it's the only horizon on PANR's acreage which has not yet been flow-tested. 88E has not flow-tested *any* of the nominated shared reservoirs and will not do so until January '24 at the earliest.

The second reason to flow test the SMD at either A2 or A1 is that a full field development encompassing both these stacked reservoirs could make good sense by sharing surface infrastructure => better field economics.

Chrisev1 - I trust this is a misunderstanding on your part rather than anything else.

Shareguru22 - for the squillionth occasion, when two parties share unequal portions of an asset, comparative valuation is a necessity when calculating fair value. It's as true for farmers who own differently sized acreage of agricultural land outside pre-historic villages as it is for two listed companies who share unequal portions of an oilfield. Time to get with it, shareguru22!

02:04
Yeah, I pretty much am, HandspringGuy, because that's what the 88E BoD is telling us.
Umiat is worth $1m, because that's what 88E paid for it.
Peregrine is worth zero.
Yukon is worth zero according to Erik Opstad.
New leases? You tell me?
Texas? Let's say it's now worth double what 88E paid for it, so $20m?

When is this forum going to stop fighting and discuss facts. PANR's scale and quality of OIP and TRR and therefore equity value is a multiple of 88E's. How can it not be? PANR has >23bbo OIP, using a conservative RF of 10% gives a TRR of >2.3bbo. What don't you get? Really, educate me. List the facts of the 88Einvestment case which justify it being valued at c.60% of PANR, right now, today.

It simply cannot be done on fundamentals alone. This is a mathematical fact. What remains is social media generated fluff. That's it, plain and simple.

Part 2, continued from below.

3) Some folk who are happy enough doing a couple of simple sums have worked out the following:
(i) The market today is valuing each PANR recoverable barrel in the ground at US12c.

(ii) Even if Hickory-1 confirms EVERY SINGLE TARGETED BARREL (which it won't, look at the company's Chance of Success guidance) which is c.650mmbo, that equates to a value of US$78m only. 88E's mkt cap is ***already*** nearly double that amount for goodness sake!!

(iii) "Ah, but the market will value an 88E recoverable barrel in the ground more highly than a PANR recoverable barrel in the ground!" Why? Why would that happen? PANR have *already* flow-tested every horizon apart from the SMD (Kuparuk, BFF, SFS, Alkaid ZOI) in their acreage and 88E hasn't flow tested even one horizon at Project Phoenix, and won't until January '24 at the earliest. Also, PANR's barrels are located chiefly updip from 88E's barrels and are less likely to be affected by phasing and Dmax risks.

Put simply. Even if Hickory-1 knocks it out the park, when using the price the market is valuing superior barrels in PANR's acreage (in geology and collection of empirical data), 88E's mkt cap (and thus SP) will DECREASE from the current level. The maths doesn't lie.

I repeat again. *If* you believe the market is valuing PANR's 2.3bbo recoverable resource correctly then a 100% completely successful Hickory-1 would see 88E valued at US$80m (v's its current mkt cap of c.$130m). *If* you believe the market is correctly valuing 88E today, right now, then PANR should be valued at >$500m right now, today. You can't have it both ways. The market may indulge such a price distortion for a period of time but it never, repeat never, goes on into perpetuity. /end

19:21
chrisev1 - sadly, and not for the first time, you're misunderstanding what 88E management has just communicated to you. "Logging WHILE drilling" ought to have given you a sufficiently obvious clue, together with the term "mudlogging". Where does the RNS tell you "we are logging during the next 5-7 days"?

If Hickory-1 is to have any hope of reaching the SFS and BFF, never mind the deepest horizon (>12k ft deep) the Kuparuk, then it *must* continue drilling pretty much 24/7 until it reaches whatever TD is selected for this season. it appears you think there's a defined period of 5-7 days for logging right now, after the RNS dated 23/3/23????

The LWD and mudlogging will be taking place as the drill turns downwards towards TD. Only at the point when 88E calls TD will "A sophisticated, targeted wireline logging program" occur. [This]... "is planned to be run ***after reaching TD***, which includes side wall cores (both pressurised and non-pressurised), triple combo, dielectric scanner and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance. The wireline logging program is expected to take approximately five to seven days to complete [scot126 - you're mixing up *this* 5-7 day period of wireline logging, sidewall cores, etc which will occur ***AFTER*** TD is reached, not before that point.

I can see you're looking for an explanation for the underwhelming response to the RNS v's your expectations. A fair enough question for sure.

1) The most obvious stock-specific reason is the guidance contained in the RNS which differs from Dave Wall's strategy of announcing to great fanfare when the camp chef discovered an extra bottle of olive oil in his pantry! "The Company will provide further updates subsequent to Hickory-1 achieving TD." This departure from the classic Dave Wall strategy of cynical PR to gin up the rubes by RNSing every hydrocarbon interval with the scantest possible empirical data collected has been recognised by the "swing trader/Oilman Jim" cohort who now realise it's likely to be 10-14 days before TD is reached (when the drill goes through floor of BFF, IMHO). Accordingly, they're selling out now because the anticipated RNS-tastic schedule over the next 10-14 days ain't going to happen => less social media excitement => less chance of the traders taking advantage of the credulous, naïve rubes now that Ashley Gilbert's more serious and less cynical communications strategy has become clear ref. Hickory-1's progress *during* drilling.

2) Objectively, and I do mean this so please give it some consideration, just have a look at the usual social media platforms. There's nowhere near the unsophisticated excitement by Brady Redneck III from B*ttf*ck, Louisiana as he wisely informs all his followers that 88E is "going to the moon", complete with rocket emoji. Without an energised "first time buyers" market, who are all the regular 88E swing traders going to sell their stock to?

End of Part 1, part 2 above.

22:54
Right here thanks, Paris1981. It's truly heart-warming to know you care.

Delighted to read Hickory-1 is progressing safely, no question about that.

Bluntly, I would be delighted if Hickory-1 drills down to 12,500ft and intersects the Kuparuk. That said, with it being quite late in the season already, and the various logging suites taking a week to perform, I fear it's unlikely 88E will drill through to the Kuparuk at Hickory-1. In order of importance and, IMO, likelihood of commerciality, the data on the various horizons I'll be most interested in will be 1) SMD 2) SFS 3) Kuparuk 4) BFF.

FWIW, I reckon the logs will confirm the presence of hydrocarbons in all of the horizons targeted by Hickory-1. It is my long-stated and *entirely consistent* message that phasing risk together with Dmax considerations make the commercial CoS notably lower for all the horizons than the same reservoirs on the PANR side of the lease boundary, ie. to the north and northwest of the Hickory-1 location. There is a good reason PANR gave up the leases to the south of the current boundary. Remember PANR has has 3D seismic data since the mid-2010s.

I was sorry to see that Volatiles Analysis was not listed in the suite of logging tools/tests for Hickory-1. Brom - perhaps you can use your close relationship with management (where "they always reply to my emails promptly") to confirm why 88E has not elected to use volatiles Analysis on this well? We know for a fact PANR and Conoco have made extensive use of VAS elsewhere on the North Slope.

To repeat an old refrain and acknowledging the groans of welcome I will undoubtedly receive for posting it: even *if* Hickory-1 confirms *every single barrel* of the 650mmbo targeted, the industry standard risked/unrisked model does not, indeed *cannot*, justify 88E's mkt cap being c.65% of PANR's mkt cap (as of today, 88E's mkt cap is c.£130m and PANR's is c.£200m).

If you genuinely believe PANR is being fairly valued by the market then 88E's mkt cap should be c.£30m. If you genuinely believe the 88E mkt cap is fair value today, then employing the exact same model the maths suggest PANR's mkt cap should be closer to £900m.

Even if you think I'm smoking something awfully strong, the mkt is massively mispricing, *on a strictly comparative basis*, these two equities. Such imperfect valuations can last for a while, but I can 100% guarantee you of a market truism. When given the pertinent empirical data, the market always, always, always corrects such flagrant mispricing. Good stuff.

Louise10/Jim - you "reckoned" the PANR/GB was a "promotional fraud" @ 15.25p in Dec'18/Jan'19. Seems to me your powers of "reckoning" aren't worth the money you attempt to charge your followers for your subscription service.

Now then, Louise10/Jim, where's your instruction on how to find your public post or tweet (by either Louis or Jim) dated from the date of the Alklaid-2 spud (7/7/22) where you warned all your followers or readers of your content that the Alkaid-2 lateral was drilled 100ft too shallow?

Once again, you will not be able to point to such a post or tweet because there has never been any such tweet. And the reason for that is that no-one of the entire planet had identified the hitherto undiscovered gas cap at Alkaid-2. Why are you so fearful of admitting that you and all the other shorters were #rightbutforthewrongreasons ?

You forgot to confirm you stand by your statement that you "don't think much of the 88E assets". Jim wrote that line and you cc'd it on to lse, correct?

18:39
seaHawk - yeah but no but. There was no hard'n'fast date mentioned but bob was asked about the relative pros and cons of re-entering A1 and A2 to flow test the SMD. The advantages of A2 became pretty obvious as he discussed their differences and he referred directly to "gravel pad" and "summer/all year round operations" and "no need to build an ice road" and "cost advantages".

Personal interpretation? A flow test of the SMD using the Alkaid-2 vertical component of the well this summer is the most likely next "hands on" operating activity. Naturally there will be some feedback from 88E's logs by that point so I suppose the preference for A2 might change? But that's how I read things for now.

.....you're on record describing PANR as a "promotional fraud". And yet there you are urging your blog followers to have their annual game of pass the parcel with 88E. Bet the plan is to sell your pa shares to the credulous mooks you energise using the OMJ blog/newsletter.

So, louis10, when ate you going to refer each member of this forum to your tweet/post/blog paragraph where you warn all of your followers/blog readers that the lateral component of Alkaid-2 is being drilled around 100ft too shallow because your blisteringly accurate research has uncovered a hitherto undiscovered gas cap which you feat one of the 29 multi-stage fracks might intersect?

Let me tell every single user of this forum the truth. The truth is Jim/Louise10 made no such post or tweet because he, like every other person on the planet at the time, had no idea there was a gas cap present at the Alkaid-2 location. Challenge him? Ask him where the gas came from at Alkaid-2 that wasn't present at Alkaid-1? And when he doesn't answer or ignores you or distracts you, ask him again and again and again. And keep doing so until he admits that, along with everyone else who was short, that they were all, every single one of them, #rightbutforthewrongreasons

Jim is acutely embarrassed that for a *trader*, he missed the 10 bagger which saw PANR move from 15.25p (merger with GB in Dec'18/Jan '19) to 152p. Investors miss those types of moves all the time, but a self-confessed E&P guru who "doesn't believe in analysing fundamentals in the E&P sector".....jeepers, that must really hurt, especially as any traders who followed his frequent sarcasm-laden mentions of PANR would have missed out entirely on the 15.25p -> 152p 10 bagger. Some trader, eh?

And before the whataboutism starts. I have always, always, always said I am not a trader and that I am delighted to be judged on my investment in PANR on the day I sell my shares or when the company/asset is sold, and not a millisecond before that time. I 100% stand by that statement.

Louis10/Jim - do you stand by your on the record opinion that you "don't think much of the 88E assets"?

*and over 10bn barrels already produced (not 10m)

12.55 I don't care what he was suggesting, it was g0bbledyg00k. As Brom suggested (12.16pm), soulac needs to do a great deal of reading and research before posting further content on a *public* forum. The fact you are defending his theory *suggests*, but is admittedly *not* conclusive, that you could do with a dose of objectivity and to also be prepared to call out misinformation on this forum when it's published by a fellow member.

Stick to the facts, Redbeardoil2? You've previously suggested they're more than sufficient to warrant your support for 88E. No room for misinformation on this forum, surely?

Baxi/marmaris/SeaHawk - it's important to set realistic expectations. Your desired operations won't be happening this side of a farm out agreement. Please have a re-listen or first listen to the most recent Proactive interview where Jay and Bob trail the possibility of a flow test of the SMD at Alkaid-1 and/or Alkaid-2 with a budget of $3.5 - $5m. There's no drill turning anywhere in the North Slope for that budget. Go back to March/April 2019 and have a read through the flow test of the re-entered Alkaid-1 well bore (after 4 years of non-activity at that location) for an idea of the operation(s) being envisioned to test the SMD from the vertical components of these wells.

It's probably worth recalling the following *short term* catalysts:

- Netherland Sewell CPRs x2 on Theta West and Alkaid

- *Possible* readacross from 88E's Hickory-1?

- Dataroom opening, managed/assisted by Schlumberger

- Effect of David Hobbs/Telemachus joining the Board

- Flow testing of SMD at Alkaid-2 and/or Alkaid-1

- Education via webinar, 20th March

09:22 Utter tripe. This is where Conoco is drilling, near OSH/Repsol's Pikka/Horseshoe Project.

88E is drilling 30 miles south of Deadhorse. Conoco is drilling about 40 miles west of Deadhorse.

At least try to make this forum a disinformation free zone.

Hey Louis10/Jim - "Especially for you...." Adz is a most creative PANR shareholder, lol. Everyone else, please enjoy the video attached to the tweet below.

https://twitter.com/Adz_UK22/status/1635704491755307008?t=wG7g3vrpyvMlh1b_FKynRA&s=19