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19:08 And there we have it, folks. Forget the external validation by AHS Baker Hughes, Schlumberger, SoA DNR, eSeis, Lee Keeling............he simply will not engage on any ground other than the BoDs are fraudsters. You cannot have a serious debate with such a miscreant.

Note how he has zero interest on even engaging on a fairly posed question which should be of genuine interest to a supposed oil sector expert. He's a parasite fleecing credulous punters in micro cap and small caps, and he uses his blog to gee up the unsophisticated punters, no doubt selling to that exact same cohort himself. A parasite.

18:42 Correction

"100bopd per 1000ft of lateral v's the guided 150bopd per 1000ft of lateral." Thanks.

Rktech - don't listen to Jim. He's hated PANR vocally since the GB/PANR merger at 15.25p. as a trader, missing a 10 bagger like that must have been embarrassing for him and his paid for subscription service!!

Serious answer to your bond question. I reckon the bond holder will be issued with c.10m shares in March. What's that, about 1.2 or 1.3% of the SOI? It's not the end of the world. Think on this. Will the next 1, 2, 3, 7, 14 quarters be issued at a price of, say, 25p? Do you think for a moment PANR BoD would have selected Netherland Sewell (Top 3 CPR experts globally) if they had something to hide. Would Schlumberger have *volunteered* to run the dataroom if they thought the PANR data was bogus? Of course not. The SP will be far, far higher than 25p by the June quarter repayment. The CPR will be in by then and Jim won't be able to say, "But what about a CPR? Expert validation?"

Think, folks. Whether you buy/sell or hold, I strongly suggest you fact check the disseminators of disinformation like P@cker and Louis10/Jim.

Dear Forum - I posted earlier about Oilman Jim/Louis10 not sounding the klaxon alarm and warning the whole human race that one or more of the Alkaid-2 fracks would intersect a gas cap and thus see the well produce c.100 barrels per day v's the guided 150bopd. Has anyone challenged him directly to point to OMJ's blog/Twitter account to ask where they might find his analysis suggesting there was a gas cap and that PANR management should think about situating the horizontal component of the well 100ft deeper or so. And there's a very good reason you didn't read that anywhere.....because Jim/Louis didn't have a scooby-doo that gas cap was present.

Let's ask him another question, shall we? Jim/Louis - we know the IP30 was 500 barrels of hydrocarbons + 2300mmcfs of gas.....let's look at the scenario where there is no gas cap OR the horizontal was situated 100ft deeper. In such a scenario, would the flow test have produced (i) 800bopd (ii) 1000bopd or (iii) 1200bopd?

Go on, Jim have a crack. The foundation of the formal guidance came from Alkaid-1. Hardly any gas produced there, solely from formation => proves Alkaid-2 fracked into a gas cap at the very top of the formation. PANR expected 750-795 bopd from Alkaid-2 and 600mmcfs of gas. Instead we know they got 505bopd plus 2300mmcfs. Go on Jimbo, give us your assessment?

As for the whole "apologies" thing. Note how Jim was radio silent on "apologies" when the stock was 140p. Funny that. Personally, I'm an investor. I've never once described myself as a trader, not once. My strategy couldn't be more different from Jim's. That said, I am delighted to be judged on my PANR investment on the day I sell my shares and not a millisecond before then.

Keeping on the "apology" question, please note that Jim/Louis10 doesn't express a moment of concern for the poor rubes that he merrily spikes into stocks like 88E. He should head to their Twitter account and read the really sad tales of US OTC retail punters who read all the social media stuff from the likes of Jim/Louis and who bought stock at 9c pre-Merlin-1 results, some of whom lost their entire savings. Bet Jim couldn't give a to$$ about that cohort of market participants.....they're the marks upon which his whole business model relies.

Tues 9:47 - director purchases. 100% agree that it would be hugely symbolic. Trouble is that the AGM is on 20/3/23 and the accounts have to be filed by end of March. Therefore I *think* they're in a closed period.....and of course they couldn't have bought stock prior to yesterday's RNS because they would have had daily access to the A2 data.

I have had the advantage of talking with the company. *Away from the SP* the technical guys and Schlumberger are, believe it or not, incredibly excited that A2 has proved lateral continuity is present in this reservoir such that it's commercial. They believe that the reservoir properties are better than expected. Of course they're disappointed about the gas cap, but that can be easily remedied whenever the Alkaid anomaly is next drilled.

In the interview, you could tell Bob was exasperated. He knows the O&G implications of the data and is frustrated that the company is failing to explain this to the wider market such that a better understanding is reached by we shareholders.

14:39 Don't talk pish, jemgee. It's one quarter, maybe 10m shares in total. Quit the disinformation, outrageous.

Mon 12:06 maestro1 - shoulda taken the farm out deal from Nov '21. Ok, here are the facts as I understand them. I know the individual who was set to lead the farm in team. The deal was for a total of $1bn spread over three years. Contracts were drawn up and ready for execution - fact. At the last minute the financiers wanted to change the financial terms which had been agreed about 5 months previously. I don't know why the financiers acted in this way? Because they felt like it?! There was also some sort of discussion about equal voting rights as to which drills were to drilled in which location and in which order. I *think* it was agreed that as the farminee was the minority, it would be unfair for equal voting rights. so, it was the last minute financial terms being amended that caused the contract not to be executed. OMJ et al have always doubted this set of facts. I believe the person who was to head up this external party because he was exceptionally motivated and excited to be involved. These are the facts as I understand them to be ref the farm in deal of Nov '21. "shoulda taken the deal?" Remember this was *before* the BFF had been proved to be 1000ft thick and at least 10.5 miles long. a ballsy and brave call, but you can't say the BoD weren't looking to add vale for shareholders.

Mon 12:18 Ok, let's address Oilman Jim/Louis10. Here's the thing.....isn't it odd that OMJ asks me to apologise when I have *always* focussed on the fundamentals and the industry-accepted risked/unrisked model. I have not stepped away from flights of conjecture about Conoco bidding $50 per share or any of that nonsense. I've followed formal guidance. Ask yourself, and ask OMJ and all the other shorters, to point out to you their Twitter/blog/lse post which stated the following some time before summer '22: STOP what you're doing, Mr PANR engineer. BOB ROSENTHAL, lend me your ears. You are planning to drill the horizontal component of Alkaid-2 at x depth, when you should be drilling 100ft lower. I'm really worried one or more of the 29 multi-stage fracks you've planned for this well will travel upwards and will intersect a gas cap located right at the top of the reservoir." They won't point to any such post because they thought the following: "There is no oil" "There is no trap." "This company is like Bre-X." "This company is one big promote." "It's all too good to be true." "The BoD are all fraudsters."

(End of part 4, part 5 to follow)

(followed on from Part 2 below).

Mon 08:38 gregpeck7 - they won't bother with the other 96% of the asset base? What a comedian! Remember the facts of the asset base. Every single one of PANR's stacked reservoirs are separate and distinct. They *all* have their own individual properties. The only almost identical feature is that they all appear to contain light, sweet crude! Think of all these *distinct* reservoirs, all to be appraised and understood: SMD A, B, C...SFS, BFF Upper, BFF Lower, Kuparuk, Alkaid anomaly, Alkaid Deep. There is not a chance in hell shareholders will pull up stumps in March 2023. Not a chance. P@cker is just spreading disinformation.

Mon 08:39 Ddraig - read the RNS again and then watch the Proactive interview released overnight. Sounds like the SMD is going to be flow tested by re-entering Alkaid-1 and/or plugging off the lateral at Alkaid-2, heading upwards (not below as you suggested wrongly) to the SMD and flow testing it within the vertical element of Alkaid-2.

Mon 08:42 Hi Hereshopin - a very fair post. Let's get into it. Read across to the other reservoirs => is management's whole thesis on the entire acreage wrong? => decreased confidence => sell shares. Yep, some folk are clearly fearing this thought process. I "get" it. Bond qtryly repayment. Tools like Louis10/Oilman Jim are trying to "death spiral" the bejesus out of all and sundry. c.US2.8m is paid back every quarter.....we've paid 4 quarters so far (out of 20) and paid in shares v's cash. Instead of shares being issued to the bond holder at 78p (as we've become used to) they'll be issued at say, eg. 25c. Where normally we'd be used to 2.7m or 2.8m shares being issued per quarter, it'll be more like 10m shares this quarter. It's not ideal but it's not action stations. What's that dilution? 1.2%? B^gger all. As for A-2 producing revenue/profit, I fear you've got the wrong end of the stick here. A2 was only ever designed as a LTPT 3-9 months or so. Sure it can be switched on again in the future but PANR will have to have drilled a gas reinjection well by then to dispose of the gas = > more like a full field development. Ok?

Mon 10:22 Blackadder2702 - Netherland Sewell are one of the Top 3 or 4 CPR authors globally. If you want a comparison, PwC, E&Y for the accountants. The CPR process will be truncated as Schlumberger has already populated 13m cells in the reservoir models so won't take too long IMHO. For those tempted to believe the likes of OMJ et al, PANR is one big fraud, etc, etc then ask them the following: if that's the case, why would PANR commission Netherland Sewell to write a CPR on Theta West and Alkaid? They're hardly going to ask one of the highest profile CPR experts to author such a study if they're looking to hide anything." I repeat for the record. PANR is run by serious oilmen as a serious endeavour. No ifs, no buts.

End of Part 3, Part 4 to follow)

Once again, the purpose of these "fact check" posts are to do exactly that. Whether anyone buys/sells/holds is their business but please don't rely on the misinformation (deliberate or not) disseminated by others.

07:44 Hi Jamins - yep, that's true in terms of data. What the market was doing yesterday was showing its displeasure at the "unblocked" 1000ft effectively not contributing to the total flow data with the company having spent 3-4 months and $'s wrestling with the frack sand blockage. Then of course the SP fall has secondary effects which will see the upcoming bond quarterly payment, paid in shares, priced well below what we have become used to over the last 12 months. More on this subject later. But remember, it's only one quarterly payment out of 20 quarters.

07:47 C'mon davwal - if the diagnostic tools told them the 1000ft nearest the toe was blocked by frack sand, what else do you expect them to have done? It's the first long lateral MSF well in this specific reservoir. I don't recall you advocating they just walk away from Alkaid-2 back in Oct? Only once the frack sand blockage was cleaned out with the rig + CTU could a diagnosis have been made that the fracks had already connected with the reservoir at the toe end. You're not a shareholder in a fortune tellers tent company! The "damage" was done back in August/Sept '22 when one or more of the fracks heading vertically upwards intersected a gas cap. It is that detail which has led to all the other events listed above.

08:24 Hi Hereshopin - Correct. The unblocking of the frack sand has not had an effect on the production rates. Intentionally being simple: 5000 lateral, last 1000ft blocked, therefore initial liquid hydrocarbon flow of c.550 barrels from 4000ft.......unblock that last 1000ft and you'd "expect" the maths would see a 20% uplift [it's not as straight line as that but you get my point) as the full 5000ft lateral produces. Instead we have an IP30 of 505 barrels of liquid hydrocarbons. Logical question, how come? Simple answer is the fracks in that last 1000ft were *already* communicating with each other (in the reservoir above and below the well bore) and then flowing into the fracks in the unblocked production tubing at the 4000ft mark. In effect, the reservoir surrounding that last 1000ft of blocked well bore was already contributing to the 550 barrel flow rate we all read about in late December.

So that means, simply put, instead of 150bopd per 1000ft in the guidance, it's more like c.100bopd per 1000ft. What's happened? Where the hell did all this gas come from. Remember Alkaid-1, 108 bopd from a 6 foot section? Using that data, the company had modelled the 150bopd per 1000ft (the guidance) *and* they expected about 600 mcfpd. But we're told they're seeing 2300 mcfpd! This gas is produced preferentially and so is (dramatically put) using physics to muscle the liquid hydrocarbons out the way => lower liquid produced than normal.

(end of Part 2, Part 3 to

It's a tough day, no question. Whether you buy/sell/hold PANR, please don't rely on falsehoods (mostly deliberate, some just human error) when making your decision. Here are some fact checks.

7.07 gregpeck7 - "Texas excuses." gregpeck7 knows fine well it is the Great Bear technical team which is undertaking the operating function of PANR in Alaska. Prior to the PANR/GB merger, the GB technical team had successfully drilled 3 wells (Alcor, Merak and Alkaid-1) and they've drilled another 3 successful wells post merger. gregpeck7 also knows fine well that PANR was not the operator in Texas. That was Bobby Gray's Vision LLP. So the overlap in personnel doing the drilling/completion/flow testing is precisely zero. Fact.

7.20 gregpeck7 again. I can see a pattern developing here! He's disseminating partial information here. He knows fine well the likes of Hilcorp (26% of pdn) and Exxon (Point Thomson 100% of pdn) sell NGLs/condensate into TAPS. Alkaid-2 is a LTPT. In a development scenario, all the NGLs/condensate will be captured, treated and sold into TAPS. Read the guidance....such pdn is commercial based on the $13.5m well cost (anyone else picking up on that excellent news?) and PANR selling the non-light oil products into TAPS. The figure is c.500 barrels per day of saleable liquid, not 180 as gregpeck7 would have you believe. Fact.

7:21 Hereshopin - I "get" what you're saying, of course I do. But it is nevertheless a fact that the Alkaid anomaly comprises a mere 3-4% of the total recoverable resource across the entire acreage. It's worth being cognisant of that fact for context if nothing else. Best.

07:34 PeakyBrum - Please do remember that Alkaid-2 is a LTPT. There is no full development constructed at Alkaid so capturing the maximum amount of data for the dataroom will be the clear priority. We all know the development plan encompasses gas reinjection wells so I can't see the regulator allowing flaring out into the far future without gas reinjection being available, can you? It's all about the data....for now. Just a heads up.

OK, gotta go do a hospital visit (elderly relative). Back later with heaps more fact checks, lol.

Summary? Tough day, but the PANR thesis and investment case is far, far, far from over IMO.

Pantheon Resources (PANR) – Corporate – Alkaid#2 Update

Market Cap £412.5m Share Price 53.0p

 

Pantheon Resources announced that Alkaid #2 has produced at an IP30 rate of 505 b/d of liquids consisting of 180 b/d of oil and 325 b/d of condensate and NGLs along with 2,300
mcf/d of gas (after shrinkage). Post clean-out, flow rates were initially marginally higher than pre-clean-out rates. The company believes that despite the sand blockage, the final 1,000ft of the well was connected and already contributing to the main wellbore
through fluid communication between the fractures.

 

WHI View:
The result provides more clarity on the IP30 potential of the Alkaid #2 well. With the well now onstream for 50 days and declining in line with its pre-clean out profile
valuable decline curve data is being gained. The result has been significantly affected by Pantheon Resources’ interpretation of fracking into attic gas – an issue that should be easily addressable in future wells.

 

The shorts have been profitable, but for the wrong reason. The reservoir deliverability has proven to be good, maybe very good, but the gas cap has had a material negative effect.

If any of us were to look back and read all the shorters' content from Josh Young to Hempton to Viceroy to OMJ, not one of them was beating the drum for the lateral to be positioned 50 or 100ft deeper to avoid a gas cap.

It'll be a tough day but remember all the external validation has been supportive of PANR's data. I'm going nowhere.

Lololololol. Jim talking to Louis10, his sock puppet. I honestly thought you had more to you than this, Jim. Hey-ho.

Fri 22:18
Maestro1 - not for a single moment have I stated that the SMD, SFS, BFF and Kuparuk reservoirs are not present at the Hickory-1 location. Direct challenge, maestro1? Identify one post of mine which states otherwise? You won't be able to do so because I have never thought as you describe, never mind published such an opinion on this forum. Fact.

Rather I have hammered home repeatedly the following facts which differentiate the investment cases of these two listed companies which happen to share an asset in Alaska, in unequal proportions.

Here's what this forum refuses to confront:

(i) Scale - I assess the total recoverable resource of the combined acreage to vastly favour PANR v's 88E, somewhere in the order of 90:10. Could it be 95:5 or 85:15? Perhaps. But there exist on this forum seriously deluded posters who think it's 50:50 because they've misunderstood the definition of "share". Or they've refused to engage on such a vital topic because it means admitting they've backed the weaker investment case.

(ii) Quality - the PANR side of the lease border is updip of 88E. The 88E side of the lease border has a statistical, and likely significant, increased phasing risk. Those who have bothered to look at the respective Dmax inputs on each side of the lease border are warning of a material differential. Look at the seismic maps. Look at the depositional depths for goodness sake.

Last week we had the first example this season of a poster looking to debate comparative valuations with me who earnestly believed the fact that because PANR was 55p, it therefore had a lower probability of bagging v's 88E. Not one of you, not a single one of you stepped in to correct this poor person's misunderstanding of SP v's mkt cap. What does that tell me, what does it tell us all? That the vast, vast majority of members of this forum know fine well this is a game of pass the parcel. And if that means having to take advantage of those who are more naive, more credulous, more trusting, less able to grasp mathematical concepts....then that's fine by everyone here. "Forget about all those sad punters on Twitter who lost all their savings after Merlin-1 and Merlin-2. I deserve my trading profit even if it's delivered by preying on those who I know are being fed misinformation."

Further proof? Happy to be corrected but I genuinely cannot remember one discussion on here about updip v's downdip. Can you? How many on here have even bothered to Google what these O&G terms mean? And even more importantly, how many now understand that being updip is the place to be when looking for commercial oil production projects?

A serious warning. Look how the US shorters attacked PANR about a lack of LTPT anywhere on its acreage (before Alkaid-2). And 88E isn't even going to be flow-testing Hickory-1 until Jan '24. Think.

21:19
Hi UckU - that's quite the splash you've made this evening. If you're looking for a warm welcome as the other members of the forum welcome you into the 88E brains trust, you've certainly come to the right place.

That said, UckU, an immediate fact check is heading your way I'm afraid: "but after many attempts in this region". That is factually incorrect. No ifs, no buts.

The Talitha #A well was drilled in 2021 and was an appraisal of a conventional oil accumulation discovered by a well named Pipeline State #1 drilled by Arco Alaska in 1988. Pipeline State #1 was designed to drill to 13,000 feet (“ft”) depth but stopped short of this, just below the Kuparuk formation. The well encountered several oil-bearing intervals as well as strong oil shows throughout an extensive section and did observe oil to surface from several Brookian zones whilst drilling. Promisingly, several cores taken from the well confirmed the presence of oil. No reservoir flow tests were performed as at the time as the objective of the well had been to find a lookalike for the prodigious Kuparuk River oilfield.

This activity occurred in 1988 when oil prices had plunged to around WTI $15-$20/bbl and the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (“TAPS”) was running at full capacity, hence there was little incentive to continue the evaluation of the discovery at that time. Moreover, 3D seismic imaging was in its infancy, drilling and completion technologies as well as oil extraction techniques were not nearly as advanced as they are today. Had today’s techniques been available in the 1980’s, it is possible that the Pipeline State #1 well may well have initiated the new field development Pantheon envisions today. High resolution 3D seismic acquired in 2013 indicated the potential for an exceptionally large oil accumulation across multiple zones which structurally conform to the oil encountered at Pipeline State #1 which led to the drilling of the Talitha #A well in 2021 which confirmed oil in several zones. Independent experts at AHS Baker Hughes conducted a ‘Volatiles Analysis Service’ (“VAS”) at Talitha #A and confirmed the presence of oil in all cuttings taken over a 3,700 ft section within the wellbore. The recent operations in early 2022 at the Talitha project involved testing several of those oil-bearing zones in the Talitha #A well bore.

Don't disappoint me, UckU. Something tells me you have the makings of a varsity athlete. However you need to stick to the facts. There's sufficient clear blue water between the two investment cases for you to be getting your teeth into without resorting to disinformation.

I look forward to reading your next contribution with interest. But remember, facts > disinformation.

08:51
Re-examining the satellite image of the Hickory-1 pad, it certainly appears to be close to the Dalton such that photos/videos from the public road will be possible during 88E's activity this season.

C'mon Dreamer67, show the forum some respect by acknowledging, at a minimum, its members' ability to read and view pictures!

As I'm sure the vast majority of this forum will be aware, the Alkaid-2 pad is about 200m from the Dalton Highway. The Dalton Highway is a public road. Any member of the public is therefore legally permitted to take photos or videos from the roadside of the pad, plant, equipment, trucks and any activity, flaring gas for example.

I don't know how far the Hickory-1 pad is from the Dalton? Perhaps this forum can assist me there? But if it's visible from the public highway then the exact same rules will apply. That said, I forecast 88E management will be social media-ing to the max during drilling ops (but no flow testing remember) so we'll all be able to view photos/videos of what Dreamer67, foolishly, describes as "insider" activity.

Trust that has nipped this latest gibberish in the bud. Deary me.

Oilman Jim (aka Louis10 on lse) had another to and fro on Twitter ref. 88E.

Poster RT: "It's going to take proof"
Oilman Jim: "Don't you believe them?"
Poster RT: "And what What material fact regarding oil find(s) in the recent or distance past leads you to believe the company wholeheartedly?"
Oilman Jim: "I don't. It's just one that can be good for a share price run."

Oilman Jim a) doesn't rate 88E's assets and b) doesn't believe the public utterances of management.

But he still suggests folk ought to trade it.

Anyone else wondering why Oilman Jim has been spruiking his blog and subscription service so aggressively of late? I think we can all acknowledge that the "standard" strategy of buying a fully-funded E&P with an upcoming drill and booking a profit prior to results is not quite the sure thing it has been over recent decades. Oilman Jim's subscription service won't be making him a decent living, so what other reason must there be for his recent spate of exhortations to read his content? Took me a while but I finally realised the underlying motivation. It turns out Oilman Jim now *needs* to juice the punter cohort, exhorting them to follow his suggestions. In so doing, as he prods the credulous punter into these E&P stocks, he's slotting his own p.a. stock to the very folk he's just gee'd up.

Oilman Jim/Louis10 - aye, he's some guy.

21:53
This you, Jim/Louis10?
- "Big shorts closed some time ago." (dated 16/2/23)
I'm surprised you've got the brass neck to pop up here again, Jim. The largest declared short (mangrove) *increased* their position twice since you posted that made up, unsourced pish in the hope you'd gain some credibility on this forum. You failed.

As for the standard swipe at the integrity of the PANR BoD, nothing new there from Oilman Jim. He's made the same accusation from 15.25p - 152p and everywhere in between. Not a jot of evidence offered.

I've only recently begun to realise Oilman Jim's reason for touting his blog so aggressively of late. He cannot possibly be making a decent living from the paid for subscription service he offers so there must be another reason. His whole trading strategy; buy shares once an E&P has a fully-funded drill scheduled and rely on the naïve and credulous punter cohort to bid it up as the spud nears, but be sure to sell before results are published. Thing is, this strategy isn't as rewarding as it once was. It turns out Oilman Jim now *needs* to juice the punter cohort, exhorting them to follow his suggestions. In so doing, as he prods the credulous punter into these E&P stocks, he's slotting his own p.a. stock to the very folk he's just gee'd up. And he has the temerity to deride the listed E&P sector.

To everyone else reading this post. PANR management are serious O&G men engaged in a serious endeavour. Whether PANR succeeds or fails, I have not observed any conduct on the part of the BoD which would suggest dishonesty. Oilman Jim on the other hand.........well, I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

09:20
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is what's required x1000 for 88E to repeat the non-fact based spike of the previous two drilling seasons.

Here we have a perfect example of the naive, credulous, unsophisticated punter who doesn't know the difference between share price and market capitalization, and couldn't work out their relationship if s/he tried.

This is the type of punter all the "swing traders" and Oilman Jim are attempting to attract by their ramptastic exhortations to buy 88E because it's going to the moon OR it's bound to go to 20p if they find oil OR OR it did it before so it'll happen again this time around. All codswallop.

Anyone bothered to try to price up the operational activities and underlying investment required to fulfil the obligations under the Unit approval? Brom? Anyone?

To those ill-informed posters who have erroneously discussed production starting up at Phoenix shortly, having read today's RNS can you now see how far off from that eventuality 88E is....*even* in a 100% geological success case? As. I said earlier, just to arrive at a LTPT it'll cost $80m and 2-3 years minimum.

And the relative market caps are £150m and £450m. Madness, complete madness. On its very best day, with the 100% geological CoS, I cannot justify 88E trading at anything higher than 1/7th of PANR's mkt cap....and that's a stretch.