Member Info for Scoobydoo321

Last time when they posted a positive TU a few months back, PIs were still a bit dubious of the management. What I am delighted about is :
- great financials ;
- loaded with dosh (even more than expected!)
- the strategic direction of where the company is heading appears to be so much more rewarding than B2C model ;
- management have got the message of over promising in the past and now appear to focus on under promise and over deliver with a recent new CFO.
- Big contract with Homesend in the B2B2B market
- Strong market positioning B2B - Their main clientele base are SMEs i.e. I recall the management saying their site gets loads of traders from ebay and Amazon. Given the pandemic, I am sure the trend is for people, with loads of time on their hands at home, to come up with things to sell from. So structurally, they are bang on trend. I suppose the bigger companies are with banks. medium sized companies use AGFX, AFX - so they are serving a segment of the market with tons of cash to acquire the books of smaller independent players.
- huge upside in the SP

Just got some more AFTER the rns, I'm looking to a recovery as market sentiment changes to this co.

Must be a frustrating stock Option1 - Being honest, Im here trading this co. so haven't held this stock for long - hard to find the "trough" price . Whenever, the market tanks, sellers come out of the woodwork fast! i hope eventually TO offer comes 150% above Market price 4u (hopefully Im still in this stock by then!)

the *** below is for v o x markets
https://www.**********.co.uk/media/5fe0a64fafab1e2b28278e22/?context=/series/daily-podcast

Not sure if this has been posted in the past. ESL appears to be making an excellent turnaround during covid. https://www.**********.co.uk/media/5fe0a64fafab1e2b28278e22/?context=/series/daily-podcast
Circa 39.00 min.
Alan Waites gives his thumbs up.

Da Vita for Dolce Vita!!!

Most importantly - this time round - underpinned by :
- Cu prices
- China demand
- World recovery
- Vaccine sentiment
So likely to be a blip / buying opp.

nlondon

PE 13/14 - would be the upper range of a PE ratio for a traditional manufacturing company that is doing pretty well (e.g. CRL)
Avon Rubber - is on PE - 30s
Bioscience / Tech companies are not rated at PE ratio 13/14.

ggplyr

Valuations in bioscience / diagnostic are very high - i.e. PE ratio (forward) are very high.
Why?
Expectations of earnings growth.

So IXI - on top of my head - who does neuroimaging - made PAT circa 1mn FY 2020
Current MV = 48mn
CAGR - 25%
Cash in hand = 8mn
MV without dosh = 40mn
SP = 102p (mid price circa)
EPS = 2p
PE = 51 !!!!!!!!!!!!
I held IXI until it got to its 80s and sold.

ggplyr - best to view directly from the source itself pal
https://kantarobio.com/83772-2/
In short, we, humans do not know how long the vaccine will last for.
for more vulnerable - it could be a few months
for younger - could be longer.
Obviously cost-benefit analysis required by national health dept.

Also, read - https://www.fool.com/amp/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/08/04/bio-techne-corp-tech-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcr/
Hear the excitement of the ceo biotechne w.r.t kantaro. He's like a little kid jumping in the air shouting whoopee. Don't forget Biotechne carry other products besides kantaro. The CEO, who operates in this field obviously thinks this is a winner. (kantaro).

Close at Nasdaq - $16
$16/2 = $8 per share
XR - take mid price for simplicity - £1 - $1.37
£5.84 per share
Why at start on 4/1/21 - £5.03
Surely I am missing something?

3rdly - As far as I know, the leading IIors who participated in the IPO - Harwood + Odier have NOT sold any shares post-ipo.

4thly - I keep harping on about this but there is this incestual relationship between RENX, SBI and EKF in respect of the Kantaro covid kit which SBI chairman alluded to in a presentation given a few months back but at the time he did not discuss in detail since the Kantaro kit has NOT been given FDA UEA clearance then. In Nov it was duly given - https://www.hospimedica.com/covid-19/articles/294786039/ekf-launches-one-of-the-first-tests-to-precisely-measure-levels-of-covid-19-neutralizing-antibodies.html
Basically, it's all the Chris Mills, - i.e. Harwood Capital's stable.
So what's this got to do with SBI?
Well Kantaro, at present, IS the defacto standard for quantitative antibody kit - i.e. a kit that measure exactly what levels your antibodies is and whether you need to top up. More info here https://kantarobio.com/category/in-the-news/
Recently (Im speculating) , renalytix (stock nasdaq) which is a JV partner who founded kantaro kit SP has been rising. I reckon it's on the back of the kantaro kit (hospitals in the US using it? - not sure no rns).
If kantaro is used by NHS, EKF is the exclusive distributor and SBI is a likely to be a major beneficiary given the kantaro kit requires a clinical lab which SBI has all the accreditations.
Therefore POST vaccination - us public tend to think that its all lovely jubbly end of story - bye bye covid - but I'd say far from it given that we will need vaccine top ups based on the level of antibodies that we all have (this will differ person to person) - and the kantaro kit - at present is the likeliest candidate (check out the specificity and sensitivty - it's good!) .

Anyways that's my 2 cents.

ggplyr - good points -

1stly - it's a turnaround story with Harwood Capital coming into the picture and changing things around.
2ndly
here is my
back of the fag packet caln
note - "Liberum expects SourceBio to end 2022 with £73 million in the bank"
So say non-covid biz is 2mn PAT by 2022 YE.
Assume their tax losses can be utilised. So PBT = PAT
So trying to strip out the covid biz from the non covid biz to ascertain value for non-covid part
Current MV £128mn
Dosh by 2022 73mn
Current MV less 2022 dosh = 128 - 73 = 55mn
So future MV of non covid biz is 55mn
Im assuming that by 2022 - all covid biz - dead
If PAT FY 2022 - 2mn
PE (f) net of cash - 27.5
That's not that bad for a diagnostic / bioscience co.
Look at market acceptance for IXI / EKF
Any holes in my quickie analysis?

Compelled to mention following article - it's an excellent insight into the poss. of RPS being a takeover target.
https://cube.investments/rps-group-takeover-target-an-update/

Yay!
https://www.investegate.co.uk/hutchison-china-medi--hcm-/rns/nmpa-approval-of-surufatinib-in-china-for-ep-net/202012301200011621K/

- Turnaround play with new management (interim CFO has strong cred!)
- Downing AM increased their stake - they must be seeing something that other PIs are not + Phil Oakley of IC
- Collab with Ealing Council under a SAAS model (i.e. charge per fire alarm fixed + monthly charge for monitoring) could be a real gamechanger for them if scheme attracts other councils.
- Liquidity is not an issue with fundraise this yr.
- Structural upside - After Grenfell + Scotland law extension - all tailwind for FA.
- Oct and Nov 20 - shows progressively better performance
- Lockdown does not affect them given they are essential services (I hope they are! )

Check out video Paul Hill with Downing
Great insight -
https://youtu.be/fnvHLm_OAdM
16:26 start
-

So as an essential service - pawnbroking open but not retail side
not sure about forex - but in this environment - little biz for forex.

Whilst I appreciate that it could be the end of Miton's selling (still don't understand why they sold out at the time they did coz they shot themselves in the foot too), today has a lot of buys which is unusual when trade update is sometime away. Perhaps someone has caught wind of a few big deals that LIT has resolved, let's hope so!

Does anyone know why the big move today??? Nice Christmas present! No RNS tho.

Answered my own qn -
Cenkos Securities are forecasting year-end net cash of US$19.5m (4.3p a share), a sum equating to more than half of Trinity’s market capitalisation of £30.7m. This means that its 2P (proven) reserves of 20.9m barrels are in the price for just 95 cents a barrel even though a third are located onshore (operating break-even of US$16.50 a barrel pre-hedging arrangements) and 54 per cent are on the east coast (operating break-even of US$22.50 a barrel pre-hedging arrangements). It also means that 20.1m barrels of 2C (contingent) resources are in the price for free.

Frankly, that’s an absurd valuation and one doesn’t attribute any value either to Trinity’s new business initiative (with heavy weight and cash rich oil group Cairn Energy) on the west coast Jubilee Prospect. News on that opportunity could provide a share price catalyst before the year-end.

Can anyone explain what is the connection between TRIN and Cairn. Thanks!