Member Info for Scoobydoo321

Forensic505 - based on their prior presentations - the purpose of acquiring Convex was to acquire a cash generating machine and use the CF for Litigation Finance.
In addition, Convex, if I recall rightly, has averaged 8 deals p.a. Thus 2020 was a dud.
Perhaps , once normality resumes, Nicole's strategy may get back on track.

Good to see much banter hear. No one gave this stock the time of the day when it was at 56p. I knew that it was going to do well. But did not foresee the investor sentiment that has followed.

ST raises to 330p. TU says "well" ahead of market expectations (and I think they are SERIOSULY well ahead given how prudent the broker's forecasts are and how lockdown actually benefits them). Yet given the SP action, you'd thought they gave a profit warning! Nigel, CEO says something along the lines of, "In all my career (and he is certainly not young!) , I have not seen such an interest in books....." - which translated = BMY are milking it big time.

Gosh, you would have thought by the price action - that they had a profit warning!

Yesterday's Fall was pansy enough! Just coz BIDS falls 30% + and BIDS is engaged with biz with GFIN, GFIN falls.
Blimey. Guilty by association!
Therefore yesterday's fall was completely irrational enough on a benign yesterday.
Then today, was even more of a joke.
The company's action speak for themselves -
- Makes EBITDA positive - 1st time in company's history = high probability of recurring in the future
- Cost down by £5mn p.a. (on top of my head) = lean, efficient operation
- brand new rev stream of £2mn circa p.a. from Media dept. = revenue has high operational leverage and high profit margin
- Epicstream acquisition = widening customer base and eyeballs
- Appointment of former Apple GM + senior management from Activision
- Formal sales review under way (could this be a reason why the company back off on its divulging (?))
- Cashed up £1.6mn

It's a bonafide turnaround.
So far, John Clarke has not put a foot wrong.
RESPECT

CAPD is like car with its handbrake on. Once that seller is out of the way, the stock should rocket.
As mentioned, the seller is likely to be CB, a former shareholder / NED.

How many times has this been tipped by renown websites / publications over the past month? 4 / 5

How many brokers have upwardly revised their forecasts and targets for CAPD in past month ? 2 / 3 at least

I rarely see a company in a hot sector (mining), with 2020 figures vastly better than 2019 + 2021 figures expected to be substantially better than 2020 figures to have an SP that is circa 20% down from 6 months.

And the company is cashed up with the funds raised in Dec 20.

Mad! That's why I topped up last week.

Thanks Rufman
Per https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/heres-why-gfinity-shares-fell-10-despite-upbeat-h1-2021-trading-results/
"Today’s selloff seems like an overreaction to the company’s statement that it does not guarantee future profitability, given the majority of its work's project-based nature."

However that may be an incorrect interpretation:
Per RNS - As a result, on an adjusted EBITDA basis, Gfinity was profitable for the final quarter of the 2020 calendar year. Whilst this is a strong performance, the Company notes that due to the project-based nature of the Company's revenue streams and some seasonality in the business in the short term it does not imply the Company will always be profitable on a MONTHLY basis going forward.

What this part of the RNS infers to me is that there may be some MONTHS that are profitable and with seasonality, some MONTHS that are not profitable. So in some quieter quarters, they may not be profitable. This is very natural for all businesses.
So what I infer from this is John was simply managing expectations of PIs and not to expect month in month out profit to be benchmarked standard.
All in all, excellent opportunity to buy more.

Not sure if this was posted previously.
This was from 1 week ago - John Story , a renowned investor explains his take on GFIN
https://www.**********.co.uk/media/600ecaff40dc224b8b88a993/?context=/series/daily-podcast/
From 33.20 onwards
The *** is v o x m a r k e t s . co.uk

John Clarke has been around for circa 1 yr. With Covid, he has steered the company amazingly well. Hats off to him - that's all I can say.
Overall, where will this company be in 6 - 12 months time? Worse off than now? ....No I do not think so.

I believe the most important factor is the 1st positive EBITDA for the company.
IMO - this is why the company is providing this non-obligatory TU.
In Nov / Dec, John stated that it was the aim of the company to be positive EBITDA and was aiming for Q1 2021.
They have duly achieved this and John is simply reporting this.
Why are people reading this as a profit warning???????????

?????

Guys
1st quarter with positive EBITDA - it's now confirmed in writing - it's a turnaround - hello ....
They are on the right track
They are also in a formal sales process which could lead to a possible TO
Also, there was no obligation for them to report with a TU - they did not report in Jan / Feb in 2018 or 2019

The SP came down from 165 to as low as 150 - then come 4.29pm jumps to 153 finishing post session 157. Ey?
During this time the spread was incredibly tight - I got actual bid-offer of 152 - 151.25 which is weird for AAZ (usually the spread is massive).
MMers knocking off stop losses? Mmers gathering stock for a big order? Anyways, ended up good - getting a 3rd tranche at 153p - can not complain.

But if u take a look at the trades - there are no big sells or continuous selling - so either they are hidden orders or it's tree shake (?)

It's only going to go "up"
:)

I think GFIN 's SP rise today was primarily related to John Story, a renown investor appearing on v o x - affirming that he owns GFIN and that he has high regard of our John, the man steering the wheel.

TU wise - in 2020 - TU was released on 23 Jan 2020
No Jan TU in 2019 or 2018
So dunno
But results will come out sometime in March

The Naked Trder avoids shares about to give trade updates - that's his way to play.
As mentioned - Rosenblatt 's biz should be flying - check out cross reads to GTLY , KEYS
Convex - entrepreneurs fretting over capital gain potential changes by Rishi this Spring, are selling off their biz asap - cross read to K3C
Lionfish - check out RBGP's previous RNS's

So far my SP prediction playing out - would have been even better had it not been last few days of risk-off / selling down

Per CTO's website - Financial calendar - 28/01/21 Trading Update
So confirmed on Thurs then.

Just added more on the back of checking out
https://www.tclarke.co.uk/news/

Seems that 2021 has gone off to a flyer.

CTO has not posted these news on RNS so - lazy investors will NOT know that:
- for 2021 - CTO has just won a major contract with Cambridge Uni (I don't think this is included in the forward order book of 2020) + they've been appointed by Cambridge Uni in the past and this is a new MAJOR contract.
- Also 5/1/21 - TClarke’s specialist engineering services selected as one of the £10.5bn NHS framework winners across the UK = loads of new projects to build up that order book for 2021/22.

Perennially cheap and underrated but bottom line - they know what they are good at, and they do it well to, sticking to their knitting and at margins of 3%.

I will put my neck on the line - it's going to be a good 'un
Also based on the RNS on 26/11/20 - why not
Per Nov 20's RNS - SP spiked back up - no reason why SP is at current levels - it's too cheap at present.
So me thinks - SP will touch 102p by 1st Feb 2021.

A few more of those mega council deals like with Ealing Council would not go amiss!

sorros - look at their SP pal - it's priced for armageddon. It's priced lower than its Spring low on April 3rd. ??? Is it that bad?

Given SP level, a resolute performance, I expected worse given how Deborah was a bit doom and gloom about H2 2020 when interviewed .
Once C19 out of the way / managed - this will fly back to pre-covid levels.

I'd say that this is one of the few genuine value players around that ticks the value stock boxes
- got cash,
- no need for fundraising / dilution
- got potential growth,
- got a moat (-ish) ,
- turnaround under process so potentially could earnings in few years time could surpass pre-covid levels ,
- new efficient + cheaper ways to market their insurance (cheaper marketing channels)
- potential divies (historical circa at this current SP, 4.5% - 5% yield - so you get paid whilst u wait for some cap gains)
- if market correction comes - this stock's downside is limited.

Stock is very very underrated

Off-topic Personal Group (LON:PGH) - Rather strange gap down by the market makers in the morning. Given the SP was 399p in Jan 2020 and at yesterday's close 211p, I'd expected a gap up rather than down.
- New contracts and strategic partnerships
- 2020 Rev similar to 2019
- Cash has gone up by 3mn
- “Adjusted EBITDA to be upwards of £9.5m (2019: £11.0m) reflecting the change in revenue mix”
- No debt 2020 (2019 : nil)
- new virtual insurance sales solution has shown encouraging initial results. We have also expanded our policyholder base to capture contingent workers
- Sage Collaboration is encouraging
- No fundraising / Cash dilution in 2020 or 2021 (yet)

Personal Group (LON:PGH) 's Outlook: With further Government lockdowns ongoing, 2021 is expected to see a more significant financial impact on both income and profit as the ongoing restrictions reduce the ability to write new insurance sales and the historic impact from 2020 flows through. We also remain vigilant for the potential impact on the Group from any increase in claims. Notwithstanding, there are a number of clear strategic growth opportunities which underpin our confidence in the Group's prospects over the medium-term. New client wins will give Personal Group access to a significant number of employees when restrictions are lifted, all of whom will have the ability to apply for Group's insurance products, and the partnership with Sage represents an exciting, tangible opportunity to materially grow our target market for employee benefits.

Does not sound that bad to me!

Possibly, travel restrictions could hinder PEN's ability to provide training (no idea if they can provide it virtually). With high alert Covid, organsations may not have their eye on training as priority and may defer again. Hope I am wrong for the sake of all LTH. PEN's a lovely co. and I hope to be back soon. Decided to bank profits to recycle into other stocks I've been watching. Some lovely £100k buys last week by IIors (?) providing SP support. GLA

- could be a TO (or collaboration / value adding strategic partnership)
- Heading towards profitability - aim is Q1 2021?
- Former Apple GM does not join any Tom, Dick or harry co.
- Massive cost rationalisation, removing all fat out - leaving mean meat
- new division - digital media - could add additional £2mn to rev (high operational leverage)
- new CEO appears to be pulling off a real turnaround

That's why I doubled up a few weeks ago. TU soon. GLA