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Thanks Rugs for DKL and REA - will look at them later. Volume up due to favourable RNS

I took a deep dive for 2nd time on the presentations for FY 31/3/20 presented on 3/9/20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlF6Um9thu8

Note that this was presented in Sept 2020, i.e. into the 5TH month of the new FY 2020-21. Throughout the presentation I can not help thinking that the tone from the CFO / Bernard the CEO and Pippa (marketing director) - is all positive - not only for FY20 but for what is happening in H1 2021 at their company.
- loads of new hire (in Germany - a new country manager) + new head of ecommerce in UK (just started in Sept 20) inferring they wish to expand their online sales.
- won new contract according to Pippa - quite big - with Boots for a private label soap.

At 41:41
Bernard – ceo – says – we are good at taking advantage of disadvantages
Our aspirations remain the same
Will close out 2020/21 succesfully I think says Bernard - sales to be 55mn (47.8mn FY20) -
Net profit to be at least 7%+ (so could be more)
(if he is right - that means 55mn x 7% = 3.85mn)
73 mn shares (per stockopedia)
EPS – 5.27p
Current SP – 51p
Forecast PER – 9.67
Which is a joke for a rapidly expanding company.
They should be at least 12-14
VLG is on PER (f) 14.6 - stockopedia
So for CRL – assuming PER of 13 - not so demanding for a growing company like CRL
SP should be 68.31p by the time FY21 results come out.

It's further important to note that from previous meetings, the management have demonstrated integrity, honest and have been very open with shareholders.

7/11/20
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/11/07/palm-oil-price-rallies-to-eight-year-high

Note that AEP plantations are in Indonesia - hence the key highlights of this bloomberg article -

Indonesian output could be flat this year, he said.
Supply worries are emerging at a time when demand stays strong. Palm oil imports by India, the largest buyer, probably climbed to a three-month high in October as traders built up stockpiles before the Hindu festival of lights when consumption of fried food increases.

Indian purchases are expected to remain strong amid a gradual recovery in demand from bulk users such as hotels and restaurants that account for 33% of the total consumption, according to G.G. Patel, managing partner of GGN Research.
“Talks about Indonesia raising levy made consumers speeding up buying, ” Bangun said.
It appears that Indonesia is committed to its biodiesel programme, he added.
Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, collects palm oil export levies through the Oil Palm Plantation Fund Management Agency, which in turn uses the money for biodiesel incentives. — Bloomberg

I reckon we are near the beginning of the similar SP move that AEP made from early part of 2016 - mid 2018. Highest SP at that time oct 2017 - 880p

PEN is a bit of a buy and tuck away stock. Order book is loaded; liquidity is not an issue ; well established ; geographical diveristy ; defence not going away anytime soon ; tons of freehold L + B ; SP pre-covid 80+ so at current SP - assuming PEN can get back to their old glory within 2 yrs - this is a potential multi-bagger. Yes a boring stock ; and yes rev is lumpy but C19 only DEFERRED revenue - it did not lose PEN sales - simply pushed out to a further time. So not a dddd or ncyt, but one for the grandchildren.

Hedge fund shorting dddd
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BJL5BR07/

Anyone have contrary views?
A lot of people had a pessimistic view of LLOY + other major UK banks; VTY, BDEV, RR, EZJ etc - the doom and gloom etc.
However, what people do not account for - is the current SP. Look at what's happened to their SP in the past 10 days. Therefore, I'd say one key point is entry price. Today's price, DUKE still presents an excellent opp to get your head in early for a juicy div + a lot of upside.

As far as the NAV is concerned of 30p-ish, as far as I am aware was determined by management who according to Simon Thompson (I believe), Investors' Chronicle, were brutally prudent. Of course, hopefully, with are on the advent of a new economic cycle. Thus, the NAV will naturally improve as the economic situation improves.

Interesting to see quite a some people taking profit. Whilst that is understandable in a bear market, it's rather stange at this present situation where I believe, we are on the cusp of a bull run provided the news of the Pfizer vaccine holds up. If Pfizer does not hold up, Plan B is all the other potential vaccines in the race.

when is the timetable for the listing? Anyone knows?

early 2021 - it said in the rns

Called up a H & T shop, after RNS cross-read from RFX - they informed me that pawnbroking side is open but retail is closed. Presumably, RFX will be the same, i.e. no retail. forex is still available it seems but who wants foreex now?. Gold trading still open I would imagine.

I dont hold at present. Just worked out, based on EoY 31/3/20 figures, NTAV £1.09. Current SP 124 (offer price). So SP has effectively £1.09 backing of NTAV. Me thinks solid hold.

If it helps anyone -
Simon Thompson's latest on CRL
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/09/07/manufacturing-gains/

Creightons (CRL:56p), a Peterborough-based manufacturer of beauty and healthcare products, has delivered record annual results and ones that surpassed my expectations when I included the shares, at 44p, in my 2020 Bargain Shares portfolio.

In the 12 months to 31 March 2020, revenues increased by 8.6 per cent to £47.8m, buoyed by a 43 per cent rise in overseas sales to £7.2m and double-digit growth in private label and branded sales. These segments boast higher margins which partly explains why gross margin increased by almost three percentage points to 42.2 per cent. Creightons has also benefited from the economies of scale generated by ongoing sales growth, improvements in productivity and re-sourcing of raw materials. These factors more than offset the impact of increases in raw material costs and the minimum wage.

Moreover, with both gross margin and revenue rising, the operational gearing of the business meant that operating profit increased by almost 30 per cent to £3.8m, outpacing the revenue growth rate more than threefold. Cash generated from operations was well ahead, too, up fivefold to £6.6m, helped in part by £1.4m of positive working capital flows, highlighting the cash generative nature of Creightons’ activities. The bumper cash inflow enabled the directors to purchase the freehold of the company’s site in Peterborough for £4m, make some small acquisitions, and still end the financial year in a small net cash position.

Shareholders are being rewarded with a hike in the full-year pay-out from 0.55p to 0.65p a share at a time when many companies have suspended their dividends. A 20 per cent return on capital employed is eye-catching, too, and there is scope for it to ratchet higher as surplus cash is redeployed on bolt-on acquisitions and new product launches. Recent launches include a new Pure Touch brand of hand sanitisers and hand washes, and a newly developed anti-viral alcohol-free hand cream. Creightons has scarcity value.

Importantly, the outsourcing of warehousing and distribution of finished products to a third-party logistics provider is almost complete and means that Creightons has the infrastructure in place to continue to scale up. It’s well positioned to do so as the directors revealed that trading in the first four months of the new financial year is ahead of last year.

Rated on a trailing price/earnings (PE) ratio of 11, prospects of Creightons continuing to outperform its rivals are still being materially underrated. On a bid-offer spread of 54p to 56p, the shares continue to rate a buy.

Hey Trek - thanks for the info on the imc presentation - and I share your sentiment that ONC has got legs, much more.
They mentioned that they have launched diagnosis for liver already and breast and prostate - are imminent subject to finding partners. However, surely would they not require some sort of study, similar to the one for ELCS for the other organs' diagnosis, for clinical validation? Thanks

Thanks for the info - isolated incident? are there other hospitals or just a one-off? If 1 -off could be a batch error / erroneous supply

Thanks for the reply At home. The stock is intriguing nonetheless.

Hi PIs - would love clarifications from you smart people here -
1. for LSN - it does say "non-exclusive global rights" - given to IB. So this could mean that AI Metrics could still offer sales and marketing rights to other parties right?
2. The IP still belongs to AI Metrics and not LSN. Is that not so? I mean it really does sound exciting but ultimately the IP, all belong to AI Metrics.
3. Ive checked the RNSs to date, the duration of the agreement between IB and AI Metrics is not stated. Does anyone know?
I don't mean to be rain on the parade. Would love to invest into this stock but need your wisdom. TQVM!

I suppose the relative spike in volume is because Q3 TU is around the corner - prob early next week. Should be a good one given the CPO prices + limited observations on the weather hold.

Strange thing with Palm Oil was that during lockdown for India, given that they are a major importer. You would have imagined that due to the decreased demand for palm oil by restaurants / cafes etc there would be oversupply and a fall in CPO price. But no, the CPO kept going up and up! A bit like FTSE just after lockdown!!! Surprises one after another.

Rugs - I think your timing was just unfortunate -

1. last few yrs - much left to be desired w.r.t AEP performance. Only this yr, have they gone ape. This can be seen in H1 figures. This is testament that the good old times are back again.
Thus, just because CPO prices had gone up at start of yr, investors, presumably naturally sceptical.

2. C19 - the black swan event. After that, AEP was probably last of their priorities. However, the neglected fact is that the CPO prices have rocketed.

I have been keeping a keen eye on the listings of palm oil producers/plantations on the main board of the KLSE. They appear to be performing robustly.

Well 51% is owned by the Lims per stockopedia.
You've got these guys owing nearly 18% - a pension fund based in Antwerp - https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.nokia_bell_pensioenfonds.1725151b5301f585854824867f878d0d.html
Also, more recognisable name - Corporation of Lloyds of London owning 1.44%.
So a focus on corp governance will still be strong.
Company has been listed for ages too - so not a fly by night op.

It's crazy rugs. This stock is absurdly undervalued.
I suppose it takes a few hours for a PI to understand palm oil market. In short, charts dont lie - https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-palm-oil-historical-data
In addition, most recent TU speaks for itself - https://www.investegate.co.uk/anglo-eastern-plant--aep-/rns/results-for-the-six-months-ended-30-june-2020/202008261200052158X/

No reason why these CPO prices can not continue for forthcoming months, possibly pass $900 potentially. I was initially concerned about the harvest of fruit bunches. However, El Nino weather, as i understand, has just started, and they have another 2 months until EoY. As mentioned before, not being an expert, but after initial research, as mentioned if weather bad, then supply limited, CPO prices go up. If weather remains good, then supply more, then CPO goes down but quantity sold by AEP + other palm oil producers go up (so revenue remains relatively stable in both scenarios).

Results coming out, around 19th / 20th Nov for 6 months up to 30/9/20. I reckon they are going to be excellent due to:
- 1st 4 months (including the most difficult lockdown months of April, May 2020) - trading was actually ahead of previous yr. Evidenced per telephone call with Simon Thompson with directors in https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/09/07/manufacturing-gains/
-all things being equal, 5th and 6th month of the half year should follow the first 4 months, i.e. performing better than last year.
- Higher operating margins due to costs control.
- NHS contract - not stated amount but was extended up to Jan 2021 (thereafter, subject to renewal by NHS). I understand it is hand sanitiser.
- Land and building was purchased in previous FY leading to a saving of annual rent of £160k. So assuming half for H1 - that's 80k savings.
- Extra £400k could not be booked into FY20 said the management in most recent EoY presentation in Sept 20. and would be booked into H1 2021. Nice.
- Management reiterated in Sept 20 presentation, no reason not to hit their internal previous revenue target set of £60mn for 2020-21.
- For overseas sales for EoY 2019-20, now dealing directly with retailers rather than distributors = more control + one would assume - higher margins (cut out middle man)
- Prsently, trailing PE ratio of 10 = absurdly cheap for a rapidly expanding + profitable biz.
- no bad debts or provisioning required for customers due to C19 (CRL take out credit insurance)
- All financials are looking upwards (see stockopedia)
- Their Pure Touch - i.e. hand sanitizer + moisturizer that is officially recognised to kill virus + bacteria (CRL had to get this officially recognised) - reckon is going to be a top seller with ladies given how dry hands can get with alcohol gel.
- CRL making inroads into hand sanitization into carehomes and other health providers (new market)

CRL encountered two big index dips : 1 on the 21st - 24th Sept and 2nd one - 28th Oct - 2nd Nov. Had it not been for these two shocks, the share price probably would still be in high 50s. Hence very surprised to see it at 48p - offer price. DYOR. I hold

In sept 2020 - here goes

Anglo Eastern Plantations delivers tenfold profit surge

When I suggested buying Anglo-Eastern Plantations (AEP:524p) shares, at 570p, in my 2020 Bargain Shares Portfolio it was predicated on a strong profit recovery this year. The Covid-19 pandemic may have created uncertainty, but the company is clearly delivering. Importantly, Anglo’s plantations and mills have been able to operate close to normal levels, so output has not been negatively impacted.

In fact, buoyed by a 23 per cent increase in the average crude palm oil (CPO) price to US$648 per metric tonne (mt), albeit that’s below US$878 per mt at the start of the year, and 9 per cent higher production of fresh fruit bunches, Anglo’s first half revenues surged by 26 per cent to US$123m. Pre-tax profit increased tenfold to US$16.8m in the six-month trading period, only US$2.1m shy of total profit reported for the whole of 2019. The CPO price has recovered to US$700 per mt since the start of the second half, although low crude prices and higher seasonal crop production may lead to some downward pressure later this year.

However, that’s more than priced in with Anglo’s shares trading on a rolling 12-month price/earnings (PE) ratio of 10 and on a 30 per cent discount to book value. That seems overly harsh given that net cash of US$89m covers total liabilities of US$53m and property assets of $355m (£269m) are worth 27 per cent more than Anglo’s market capitalisation of £211m. On a bid-offer spread of 512p to 524p, Anglo’s earnings recovery is underrated. Buy.

The Crude Palm OIl price is getting closer to a 5-yr high (I have not even checked back before then). Yet the share price is languishing. Unbelievable value at these prices. https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-palm-oil-historical-data

Simon Thompson of Investor's Chroncle has written up regarding this stock twice this year. Interim results were excellent. In fact, best they have been for quite a while.

Completely underappreciated, backed up with robust financials with a commodity price that has rocketed over the past few months. C19 does not negatively affect demand or supply.

Supply wise - From reports, El Nino weather has just started. From my understanding, a cycle of every 5 yrs where the weather gets super hot. For palm oil, from what I see, if supply is impacted due to the weather, the CPO price goes up (due to limited stocks). If the weather leads to increased supply (e.g. super hot weather potentially leading to higher yields of palm bunches), more quantity and CPO likely to fall to compensate for higher supply quantity. All in all, from my research, El Nino weather does not really affect the overall revenue made by palm oil producers in the short term.

Check out the share price action - a few yrs back - the SP was £7-£8 region. I reckon FY20 is going to be one of the best years for AEP despite C19. H1 they made $16.8mn PBT.

The only issue with this stock - is volume. Unfortunately, it does not have broker coverage despite its size. Hence, a lot of investors follow follow their competitor MPE (LSE listed) which has broker coverage.

This seriously offers compelling value for investors.