Member Info for Scoobydoo321

Thanks Hawker. Perfect timing for me (plain old luck) with me listening to a podcast between Vox's Paul Hill and Christopher Mills - the Priv Equity dude just this Sunday - so brilliant return for a very recent purchase of Renx. Kind of shook some sense to me as to the importance of what he was saying. Yes EKF are the exclusive distributor in Europe (I think for 2 yrs), Renx and Mt Sinai own the IP. EKF, Renx, Verici + Trellius - all companies with connection to Chris Mills. I actually was not aware of the RNS of fda emergency clearance until this even. Brilliant! Lord Lee is also a holder BTW.

"Cash and cash equivalents were $82.3 million as of September 30, 2020"
So tons of cash = alot of runway.
Critical success factors primarily 2 -
1/ FDA clearance - application in process for their primary platform - KidneyIntelX - gamechanger in treatment of Kidney Disease
2/ FDA clearance / approved (not sure which one) for Kintaro - if cleared/approved, this one could be a game changer for anti-body testing. "Yeah all this anti-body biz is over," says the sceptics assuming once we have the vaccine there is no place for anti-body testing. Not quite coz if Kintaro can accurately quantify your immunity that you have remaining, this can accurately inform a person when they are required to get a vaccine. Kintaro is a JV between Renx + Mount Sinai Hospital. Check the specificity (99.6%) and sensitivity (98.8%). Pretty wicked! Apparently Siemens is the only other competitor presently seeking to provide quantitative assessment of antibodies. https://kantarobio.com/kantaro-receives-fda-emergency-use-authorization-for-semi-quantitative-covid-19-antibody-test-kit-that-detects-the-presence-and-level-of-sars-cov-2-igg-antibodies/

Does anyone know why the SP fell after the release of this TU? Rather strange. It sounded rather positive to me.

Long way for this stock still to go Rugs. CPO prices holding up. Me thinks a distinct possibility of smashing 2017's EPS where the SP touched 868p. Have you bought MPE as well?

I totally agree jpgould, I have tried to get into HAT since June 3x now, once at 330p during June, did not do much and sentiment was not good so I sold off at break even. Then again just before trade update in Aug 20 at 317p, then it slipped to 293p. Dodgy SP action - most likely due to Artemis overhang in stock. Thereafter, it went down to 252p where I could not help myself again and bought into it given that it has not been at that level for 4 years min. Yet again negative sentiment.

It's mainly attributable to lockdown. PIs viewed HAT as almost a retail shop so steered away. Could not believe my eyes when it went down to 208. 208 - come on! Having made a cross read from RFX the same day, I called up a local H & T to enquire whether they were open during lockdown 2.0. I immediately bought some. 1 hour later it hat shot up 10% because of the late RNS (nice!). Yeah so crazy now that it is back to 280. What was all that about!!! So PIs were primarily concerned about lockdown. As for FCA, exposure is not so big me thinks.

Coz it's our main man Mr Simon Thompson - glowing review of PMG - as it deservedly should!

To be announced but apparently newspaper says expected lockdown to be replaced with tier 3 with pubs / restaurants - to close before 11pm. Hurrah! Much needed cash inflow + Christmas trade. With CVA out of the way, 3 positive news from vaccines, Christmas trade, things might just be looking a little up for RBG. Should give a nice booster to SP

You're welcome Investor0109. Interim's this week perhaps? With bullish sentiment in the air + annual Christmas stock market "feelgood" factor, expecting elevated SP. On another note, CRL really establishing a moat in private label - being voted no.1 private label manufacturer in their line of goods for past number of years.

Question. Some of the IIs are the ones that Cathal brought in when he founded Orph. Are they locked in for 3 years like Cathal and the other founding directors?

Ans - In a previous presentation, CF says that he spread allocation of shares among 17-18 IIors so that when one comes to sell, the SP would not crumble + nice liquidity. So no, IIors are not locked in.

I'd agree - likely Brazilian project since I believe their option to buy came from an earlier period. With commodity prices at super highs, I'm sure JT has found deal making not conducive at the right price. So whilst they may have the financial firepower, the price may not be right

Not surprised you sold out RN, the dust is still settling in and a transition from covid times to non covid times with an interim in between - hard to guess how things will pan out with investee companies. Overall though I am positive in the long run, short and medium term..mmm....I have some reservations.

Hi RedNinja
Simon Thompson stated today -
Duke has taken 30 per cent equity stakes in three partners in lieu of foregone cash revenue: independent glass merchant United Glass Group; coatings and paint company Trimite; and private education company Step. All have now resumed making cash royalty payments. Also, the equity stakes are held at nil value in the accounts, thus offering valuation upside to Duke’s last reported NAV of £74m (29.3p a share).

Therefore, DUKE has already accounted for the write down of these royalty partners.
Of course, as stated earlier, once past covid19, and these partners get back on their feet, management will "revalue" these equity stakes accordingly.

Next TU is for the full year. I am expecting for the last 1/4 of this FY to be stellar.
With :
- rosy outlook of CPO presently (demand wise)
- CPO prices at 8 yr highs
- AEP having made $19mn pre-tax for H1
- internal production for 9 months of fresh fruit bunches (ffb) being 6% up compared to last year
- current weather being conducive for strong ffb yield

I really think they are going to smash FY20 and could be best ever results for the past decade.

Simon Thompson just wrote up about AEP in investors chronicle.

Putting it into perspective, 0.5p now currently offers (assuming 2p p.a. and no more nasty scrip divies) = div yield of 7.8%. So whilst waiting for econ recovery + CG, can earn divies on the side. Not bad at all.

Per https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/09/21/companies-on-the-rebound/
which funnily enough is freely available (usually behind paywall)

Simon Thompson says - " ...head of finance Hugo Evans says he was “brutal” in the fair value assessment of the portfolio."
and
"scope for further upside driven by portfolio revaluations as Covid-19 induced write-downs are reversed".

Thus, as economy improves, the assets will need to be "revalued" to reflect the change in economic activity. Therefore, I expect as gradual increase in NAV + SP

BTW I double checked on my figures - I have used the total no. of shares already inclusive of the management share options (i.e. 73mn) to derive the 68p. So the 68p is more or less reflective of CRL SP's current year's potential.

Dont know if this is still applicable - appears as if these guys still have a position - or FCA website is not updated
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0031215220/

Given current sentiment, post-fund raise, might not be a good idea to continue with the shorts. Other good news on other vaccines, Pfizer's submission for FDA approval etc

If it helps anyone - this site helps u keep tabs on latest cpo prices.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-palm-oil-historical-data

In terms of the medium term picture, I keep reminding myself - where is this stock going to be in 2 yrs time. Something tells me that this will NOT be at current SP. Tons of cash, undervalued MV, advent of a new economic cycle. Tons of potential new development. They don't call it black gold for nuting!

though interestingly they now seem to own 3 x river boats in Europe they are hoping to rent out when demand returns........anyone fancy a holiday!

As a side biz, Duke can always organise river cruises on the Rhine pumping Pearl and Dean advertising music - baa baa baa baa baa. Zits wunderbar ya!!!