Colin Barnden interview20 Jul 2019 22:14
From 28 June -
Not sure if this has been posted. Some interesting stuff about infra-red DMS, mass market absorption and unit cost importance
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1334873
COLIN BARNDEN: And there would just be so many of those situations in which we find that the world is a complex system. And automation is just not capable yet to handle that.
So Level 5, it's too far out. It's too difficult is my take. Level 4 is too expensive. And what I'm seeing from the OEMs is, they are agonizing over adding 8S and driver monitoring system features for a couple of hundred bucks. These guys are taking their time and really sweating every cent out of that system. So $5,000 for unproven technology is not close.
And Level 3, we've got the handover problem.
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COLIN BARNDEN: Correct. Yeah. So what's happening really with the Waymos and the Ubers and the Cruzes and those guys, they have a completely different business model. They may very well be able to survive with tens of thousands of dollars of sensors and neuronet processors in a vehicle. But the mass market companies-- the traditional mass market OEMs-- they are simply not going to put thousands of dollars... And this technology is unproven. Lidar is unproven. GPU is unproven in mass market vehicles.
And the liability issues. Everybody looks at this from a technical perspective, but what's the liability? What's the legal issues? What are the political implications? And really when I look at all of that in the round, the traditional OEMs, they are such conservative companies that they will not go near this.
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JUNKO YOSHIDA: Which level of mass-market cars will we have in 2025?
COLIN BARNDEN: Yeah, so, what I'm looking at really, 90% of cars in use today are Level 0. That's the base position. And that argument doesn't really get made. So what's happening now is, the OEMs, they are introducing Level 1 and Level 2 technologies. So we've got there autonomous emergency braking and lane keeper systems. So IEB and LKas are the longitudinal and lateral control systems that will be used, along with what I call an infra red driver monitoring system to permanently monitor the driver's attention state and engagement level.
And between those three systems, that's exactly where I see the OEMs adopting, really around Levels 1, Level 2 and then you could call this new thing Level 2+, Level 3-. That's where I see the volumes.
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