Member Info for scardey_cat

Only briefly skimmed it...are you talking about the section on 'Momentum trading rules'? Perhaps we have a different edition, with differing page numbers. Anyway, will start at pg 1 this weekend.

My copy of 'The Psychology of Technical Analysis' just arrived.
Was looking forward to the big reveal on pg 184, but was somewhat underwhelmed :-)
Anyway, worth knowing a bit about this charting stuff...can't do any harm.

@wyn
For somebody who professes to detach himself from 'the company' when making investment decisions...'I don't care about the company, I'm only interested in the SP'...words to that effect, you're looking for a lot of re-assurances in that post. So, which is it, the chart or the company? I find your posts confusing in that regard.

Thanks for confirming that, you pompous little twat.

Just looking at Jupiters shorting history over the last several years.
They made a win on 60 companies, a loss on 50 and neutral on 21.
That is, 54% of the time they got it wrong or neutral.
So, it's a flip of a coin as to whether they make a profit on Avacta.
And, I'm pretty sure there's many posters on here far better researched on Avacta than a room full of so-called Jupiter analysts.

It's hard to take @Bighero seriously, when in a former life Bighero was known as S.A.Tan (soon to be a very rich man) on the ODX board. In that former life Bighero was the owner of a Chinese takeaway in Alva and was privy to the small talk of Omega employees visiting his takeaway at lunchtime. Along with changing his name, @Bighero also changed his shop and indeed his menu. @Bighero is now the owner of an Indian takeaway in Devon. He's obviously a very versatile crook...sorry, I mean cook.

I was comparing Avacta to Angle earlier this week (I have a few in Angle). Angle essentially have a one hit IP, the Parsortix CTC capturing system. Their Mcap is approximately the same as Avacta now - circa £300m. Angle's Mcap is in the main sustained by the reasonably strong possibility of FDA approval for the Parsortix system, which it is thought to be attainable prior to this year end.

Then I thought about the mind boggling IP in Avacta's grasp (excluding Affidx), one aspect of which is the potential for positive initial readout from AVA6000, in approximately the same timescale. The effect of this on Avacta's SP would dwarf that of the effect on Angle's SP on FDA approval...and AVA6000 is just one part of the rich tapestry of Avacta's armoury. The potential for the multitude of applications of affimers is humungous in itself.

In some ways I think Avacta have been lost in the smog of Covid. People just can't see past Affidx sales etc. etc. I have actually been thinking that the SP would be higher than it is now, without this whole Covid thing, strange as that may sound. Angle have got to £300m Mcap without any Covid element. Does Angle's IP have greater potential than Avacta's? Not in the same league, I would say.

"I've been reading here for a while, keeping an eye on things and enjoying the over-bullish speculation - especially that about my own company."

@tradethail
You seemed to be enjoying it in May, not so much now?

Only absolute certainties in the revised micro-cap PF - all of which I've added to this week with sales proceeds from the first few disposals:

a) @MkangoResources #MKA
b) @avacta #AVCT
c) @QFIPLC #QFI

He's saying these are the absolute certainties and he's added to them from disposals of other shares.

Here's a link showing all Jupiter's shorts (Avacta short not updated yet).

https://shorteurope.com/history_player.php?player=JUPITER%20INVESTMENT%20MANAGEMENT%20LIMITED&land=united_kingdom#AVACTA%20GROUP%20PLC

They seem to get it wrong more often than right. Look at their ongoing Photo-me short - they're currently £57m down on that one :-)

Their original short was about £2m @ £1.60, so they're up £500k on that.
They've just stuck another £300k on the short out of their profits, which is no great shakes.
If they'd put another £2m on at this price, it might get my attention.

I'll buy you a yacht in Monte Carlo, if you fcuk off and promise not to come back. You complete and utter moron.

Shame first dosing not at Christies, Manchester. I have a nephew works there as a dietician.

The govt are taking more and more flak for spending billions on poorly performing Chinese tests, whilst at the same time showing a lack of support for Uk diagnostics companies. This sets Omega up beautifully to receive significant orders from DHSC in order that the govt can refute the above criticism. I’ve never been so certain that govt orders are on there way, because it’s now politically expedient for the govt to show Uk diags it’s support. There’s no greater motivation than political expediency.

Huff Post:

“By appointing themselves ‘judge and jury’ of the Innova test, the DHSC has allowed itself to make fundamental changes to the Innova test’s characteristics, implementing them without any follow up Porton Down assessment.
“[These are] changes that would inevitably have had a significant detrimental impact on the test’s already underwhelming performance. Notably, to date, the government have not seen fit to publicly assess the impact of these wholesale changes.”

Yes, Paul’s done some research, but the above paragraphs are taken word for word, from my open letter to MP’s from a few weeks ago. Anyway, he’s welcome to it. About time this absolute scandal got more into the public domain.

@beinthelead
The new guidelines link:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-test-approval-how-to-apply?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=08b8bf3b-5a84-4d08-affc-0bdb795d3871&utm_content=daily

Click on "Medical Devices (Coronavirus Test Device Approvals) Regulations 2021." link.
This takes you to the actual legislation changes behind the new guidelines:
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2021/9780348224795

See 38B (3) (a):
(3) A coronavirus test device that is an antigen test must have—
(a)a level of sensitivity, using a 95% two-sided confidence interval, that is entirely above 60%;
(b)a level of specificity, using a 95% two-sided confidence interval, that is entirely above 93%.

Note: The new legislation applies to the private testing market only. It has nothing to do with government procurement of LFT's. The gateway to supplying LFT's to the govt is still Porton Down.

“ If I was a potentially High Risk patient should I catch Covid - a middle aged, sedentary, overweight business exec for instance I'm not sure I'd find the current Government acceptable level of Sensitivity of 90% particularly reassuring”

If you read the new govt guidelines, the acceptable level of sensitivity is above 60%, so quite a low bar.

Omega answered 230 questions in total MrA.

Q47: Will ODX make the Avacta AffiDx test for the U.K. Gov? And if so, how long would tech transfer take for this product?

Avacta is not one of the potential partner companies with a DHSC approved lateral flow antigen test that the DHSC has facilitated discussions with.

Q180: Is Colin able to comment on the accidental Linkedin profile update by an Omega member of staff that stated that they were working on LFT manufacturing for Avacta Group? It is strange that neither Avacta or Omega have confirmed / denied regarding this despite the information having made it's way into the public domain seemingly in error.

Our colleague had done some small scoping work with Avacta but there was no formal agreement and no agreement has been reached since. It has no relevance to the performance or expected performance of the business and so there is no need to disclose anything.

It means the Secretary of State can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants.