Member Info for scardey_cat

@marik
You posted this earlier:

Week: Approx. Dose (mg/m2) [# of test subjects]
Start: 80 [3]
Week 3: 200 [6]
Week 6: 420 [9]
Week 9: 700 [12]
Week 12: 1000 [15]
Week 15: 1600 [18]
Week 18: 2500 [21]

I asked you where you got the figures from. You seem not prepared to answer that. If you want to keep it to yourself, that's fine.

That's what I asked for in the first place. Remember I said "I know I've seen it somewhere before, but I can't remember where". Anyway, unless you can kindly provide a link, I'll just file it under guesswork.

I've no idea, which is why I'm asking. If you don't know either, no problem.

I don't think I'm liking your guesses. If you put up information like that, you should be prepared to back it up with references. Not good enough to say you don't want to bore people with the details.

With all due respect, if you're not prepared to back it up with a link, I'll have to assume it's guesswork, if that's ok with you.

Down more than six figures here, but extremely reluctant to sell @25p. Not concerned about a placing as it would prop up the business, until such time as the money due is paid. The only thing that bothers me a bit, is why aren't the directors buying at these levels. I think they need to dip into their pockets and show investors a bit of faith in the business.

It won't bore me at all. Just wanted to establish whether your dose escalation figures were guesswork, or had some substance.

@CO
Don't know how it works precisely, but when I increase/decrease a spread bet position, it very often does show in the trades list. I check sometimes to compare the price I got from IG with the actual SP price on the trade. So, I can tell what margin IG are making when I make a trade.

Thanks @gmcc, I knew I'd seen it somewhere. It just says escalating doses starting at 80mg/m2, but doesn't specify what the escalation intervals are. Would be good to know that, as it feeds into the idea that improvements in outcome will become fairly obvious within a few months.

@marik
Where are you getting your dosing info from? I know I've seen it somewhere before (probably an Avacta publication), but can't remember where. Do you have a link? Cheers

"Many governments are expanding widespread, regular testing to spot cases and are enhancing, rather than retiring, contact-tracing systems."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/forget-beating-covid-19-europe-is-preparing-to-live-with-it-11629118024?mod=hp_listb_pos1

Think we've had enough of "shorty" over this last month.
Don't let anyone catch you @DaProphet!

MM is reducing the scope of his portfolio from 22 companies, down to about 6 or 7. The first 3 (of the 6 or 7), are MKA, Avacta and QFI, all of which he has added to last week from disposals of other shares. He's updating his investment thesis on each one of the above and will update in due course. Notably, he posted his intentions at 4:00pm on Friday, presumably after his meeting with Avacta on Friday afternoon (assuming this meeting happened), citing Avacta as one of his 'absolute certainties'. I'm not on twitter myself, but I do follow MM's posts. I find he gives a realistic and intelligent commentary/analysis on his investment choices. Each to their own, of course.
...........................
Following a sub-par performance over the past four months:

A major portfolio overhaul has been going on the past two weeks, currently cutting positions from 22 to 6-7, maybe less.

Reversion to 2020 strategy: concentrated PF = a return to (attempted!) wealth creation mode.

It's been difficult to track so many open positions this year. Moreover, I've often caught myself thinking, why be so diversified when I have such great conviction in my largest holdings - in both the very near term and longer term for them all?

It's been equally difficult selling many of the positions. There's nothing whatsoever wrong with them: on the contrary, it's not the time to sell most of them(!) - but it's a matter of selecting a handful of them that I feel:

i) have the potential to make very strong moves in the next few months;
ii) equally have the potential to do many multiples over 2-4 years.

Only absolute certainties in the revised micro-cap PF - all of which I've added to this week with sales proceeds from the first few disposals:

a) @MkangoResources #MKA
b) @avacta #AVCT
c) @QFIPLC #QFI

Updated investment theses on first 3 being written. Will also declare sales once all completed.

*their

Wouldn't get your hopes up just yet, they're website says 10-15min for antigen test. Then again, it says 10-15min for two other antibody tests, so could just be a generic type 10-15mins and still be us.
https://www.intermedicalss.com/en/prices/

Funny, I actually know this ISS place, it's near the train station in Los Boliches. It's where I get off the train when I go to see my brother. It's around the corner from where he lives. He speaks Spanish, so just sent him an email and asked him to find out what he can.

"Hi Peter

Avacta taking a hammering again today!
Interestingly, somebody just posted this on the Avacta BB (see below).
If you're out and about, try and call in there and see if they're selling the Avacta antigen test (it's called AffiDX).
We need a bit of good news, since the company have gone a bit quiet on communications front.
The place is just before the Los Boliches train stop.
If you do pop in there, try and find out if they're selling a lot of them...ask why they chose Avacta particularly.

Cheers"

I have a brother who lives in Fuengirola. I’ll get him to check that out this week. Great news if it is Avacta.

Surprising to see some investors being a little defensive about their Avacta investment. Regardless of what happens to LFT sales, if there is the merest sniff of positive AVA6000 news over the next few months, we will see a significant re-rate here. As has been discussed already, pancreatic cancer is extremely aggressive with a rapidly deteriorating prognosis. I can testify to that myself, having lost a brother to it 5 years ago. We’re talking a few months once it gets a hold. It’s very unlikely that favourable improvements in outcome can remain under the radar, should AVA6000 reduce the side effects of Doxorubicin in the first part of the trial. Patients, doctors and relatives will be well aware of these improvements long before the expected initial read-out date. With investors being pre-occupied with LFT at this point, the huge impact on the company’s profile and prospects on first positive AVA6000 news/data, is being overlooked in my opinion.

That aside, I think the market has pretty much priced in minimal/underwhelming sales of LFT’s at this point. Again, the slightest positive news on that front will give a sizeable boost to the SP, completion of TT to ABDX (can’t be far away now…AS said ‘a few weeks’ on 21 Jun) or news of modest/sizeable contract win, being two such examples. It really won't take much of a spark to re-ignite the LFT flame from where we are.

Famous last words, but I really can’t see any significant downside from here. I think AVA6000 progression provides a pretty solid foundation for the SP at this level, and with minimal expectation on the LFT front already priced in, the only way is up on that side of things…and it’s potentially a big UP in itself.

Thanks @wyn, pg 183 for me :-) I have the 1990 'Revised Edition'.

Having sold a third of a very substantial holding @256 (thank God I did that! - just felt I needed to reduce my exposure at that time), a third at @155 (needs must...close to margin calls etc.) and the rest @130, I'm now back in over the last 3 days for a greater amount than the .11% increase in Jupiters short (@ average 122)...nice of them to sell me their borrowed shares. I have mainly bought for Precision, TMAC and Affimer. I've discounted massive sales of AffiDx and regard that as a nice little bonus when it comes along. I had a bit of a 'Myles' re-think along the lines of, if I could only hold one share for the rest of my life, which would it be.