Member Info for Scampthedog

Lets us do a Benjamin Franklin type exercise with RMG's short term outlook.

Pro's:-
1. Massive increase in volume of traffic...parcels especially.
2. Noticeable decline in amount of agency on the floor in many workplaces.
3. One new "Hub" up and running...several more to follow on.
4. Union recently reassured concerning USO.
5. RMG announces it has cash reserves of 800 million and extensive credit facilities.
6. Massive reinvestment underway...particularly in how parcels are processed.

Now lets take a look at the cons:-
1. Huge discontent amongst Royal Mail employees.
2. At present embroiled in a big dispute with the CWU (union).
3. As yet an unresolved pay rise to settle; not forgetting, on resolving this issue, it will have to be backdated of course.
4. An almost insurmountable problem to negotiate when attempting to sort out all the grievances the union has regarding parts of the unfulfilled "Four Pillars Agreement".
5. Rico Back's determination to:-
a; Create a separate company in Parcelforce,
b; More likely than not, resume an attack on the USO,
c; ignore the union,
d; push any changes through regardless of come what may.
6. High chance that, despite much increased revenue of late, RMG will be showing a lose in the near future.
7. For all the massive reinvestment RMG proposes, to bring it screaming and kicking into the 21st century, it still requires more. What! More than 1.8 billion?

And we could go on and on. But I am bored with it all now, tonysilverman. Time for work. And time to take a break, once again, from this thread.

P.s and just bear this in mind also: those "shorters" do it for a living...they are not often wrong. Good luck!

"Union deal? No, the Union will be raging in a month when they wake up and smell the coffee and see the 5 day USO has been established".

Never truer words spoken.

The USO has long been regarded by many financial analysts and commentators as the "albatross around RMG'S neck".

Perhaps not a month...or even in 6 months. But sooner or later this will all come about...it has to. It has to because in all honesty it all makes perfect economic sense.

There is much turmoil and turbulent water to pass under this creaky old bridge yet, wolvesposty.

Good night everyone...and may it be a content and peaceful one. Duty calls.

Not checked the shorttracker for a week or two...not surprised to see it has increased. But 8.41% -- phew! That really is rather high to say the very least.

I can see a retrace here back to the £1.58 - £1.55 level...if it does'nt hold there it will be all the way down to £1.35.

Kretinsky has put himself into a very good position it would seem. He stands to make a lot of money if the share price continues to rise; if it is indeed his intention to trade them.
Alternatively, he might well be considering another raid on the stock. After all, if the share price falls well below his average and keeps on falling...what reason would there be for him not to?

A takeover bid? Probably no...but perfectly placed all the same. Makes one think a little. Does it not?

As for being busy this week...just you delivery lads just wait till tomorrow. Where I work we are expecting massive volumes throughout today and tonight; same all over obviously. You front-line-hares are going to be real busy over the next couple of days -- even busier than today! And like OliGarch has already mentioned previously, next week will also be extremely busy. The Tuesday especially so!

If these sort of volumes keep pace till Christmas the manages will be on for massive bonuses. So why not the posties? Who is doing all the hard work? The managers...or the posties? I hope the CWU is bearing all this in mind.

you do have a point...of sorts. Night all! Duty calls.

your last post -- highly commended!!

anyway -- tara for now.

No not a "throw away comment", mad, just my opinion as a private citizen/home owner...but I do respect your own personal opinion of course; and I will also concede you are more acutely placed in your line of duty to perhaps know better than I.

Regarding the USO. I do not think, myself, that Ofcom, the present government, and definitely not Rico Back that is for sure, give much concern to ensuring a 6 day a week delivery; in fact Ofcom would probably view it as just another deregulation in helping to attain a level playing field, thus promoting more fair play and healthier competition within this quickly growing industry.

Don't be surprised if Herr Back comes back for another attempt upon the USO...he would be stupid not to. Stupid as far as his position is concerned that is.

I agree with zccax77, tonysilverman, when he makes the comment : "I would be nervous to add anymore"; although in my opinion £1.48 is a pretty good price. Even if they drop back down to£1.18, or even slightly less, it is hardly a disaster for you...all things considered.

There is a lot of turbulent water to pass under Royal Mail's bridge yet that is for sure.

Until a mutually benefiting and binding agreement is declared by both parties (union and employer) this remains what it has been for quite some time now -- a very volatile stock!

Do I think even £2.10 is good value in the mid to long term future? Yes! most certainly. But as an investment for growth it remains just that: mid to long term. And by that I mean another 4-5 years in my opinion.

The public, at large, don't really care about their "regular" mail being delivered on a Saturday...those days are long gone.

Also, the CWU has never learnt from previous mistakes it would seem to appear: a touch of arrogance perhaps?

There will be another attack on the USO...of that you can have little doubt.

As both a postie and CWU member, I have to say, Kassam83, regrettably, there is some truth in your contention.

Dave Ward and Terry Pullinger are each far left socialists...in fact Dave Ward is just an out and out Marxist.

They both want to see a return to re-nationalisation at the earliest opportunity. They might represent the greater views of the union members as far as working for RMG is concerned...but I would say most people who are in the union are not as far left as Dave Ward.

Herein lies a serious problem involving the differing ideologies of both employer and the CWU leadership.

Cannot quibble with your postings, JBTHISTLE. You obviously know far more than me regarding the subject.

However, I thought the offer would just have to be attractive enough to appeal to the majority of shareholders? I was not aware it had to be above the highest price paid or highest average.

Ah well -- you live and learn!

He can apply directly to the shareholders and make them an offer above their average...I might have this wrong but I am under the impression this would be known as a "hostile" takeover. And what would the union be able to do about it? Answer: nothing.

The union might be dead against it all and call an immediate strike. So what? Anyone buying a controlling share in Royal Mail is obviously well aware of the views and therefore immediate reactions of the CWU. Any takeover followed immediately by a strike would just result in thousands of lost jobs. Either way thousands of jobs would go...and like I just stated...there would be absolutely nothing the union could do about it. The regulator maybe -- but not the union.

The new owners would just go down the same road that has been repeated thousands of times before. The: "first, you have to break it to fix it" routine.

diddle-dum da dooo...nowww thennn letsss seee ---- 0: EEEK!!!

Headline is just a piece of sensationalism implying that it is some sort of takeover bid...doubt it. Why not buy more if that is the case? Mind you I suppose it depends upon how many shares are available at the time. At the price he bought he could afford to buy the remaining 46% and still have a couple of billion pounds (sterling) left over.

Intriguing though I do have to say.

Could be many reasons he has bought in. But if he did intend some sort of takeover then why would the s.p collapse? I would have thought the more shares he would require would just keep pushing up the price. And would he not eventually have to approach the remaining shareholders directly to buy enough shares to hold the controlling 51%? Surely then that would turn it into some sort of hostile takeover would it not? Turning directly to the shareholders themselves whilst completely disregarding the CEO and the board. The only problem being the government regulators perhaps. But there again why should this be a problem? Is it not a plc free to trade its shares like any other plc?

Do not take Mr Thomas Scripps's words as verbatim...it is the underlying sentiment that is of importance.

Ask yourselves this:-
1. Would Rico Back prefer to see the end of the USO?
2. Would Rico Back very much like to sideline the union?
3. Is Rico Back just stringing the union along?
4. Will Rico Back, in the near future, attempt an attack on the USO once again?
5. Would the union be foolish in the extreme to take Rico Back's word on anything?
...and if the answer to question five is "no" I would suggest you remind yourself of the "Four Pillars Agreement".

If the answers to all five questions are "yes"...then why would you deny or disregard of what Thomas Scripps has wrote?

Thomas Scripps might not be right word for word...but there is a lot more than just a grain of truth in his article that is for sure.

OliGarch, allow me to say I have always viewed your posting's in a most favourable light...and it is'nt because you are both a postie and a CWU member: you are highly informative, whilst, at the same time, remaining even-handed and courteous...and without any particular bias, axe-to-grind, particular spin or hidden agenda I might also add. You are indeed an excellent contributor!

Again I find no fault or contradictions in your latest post.

Change though is inevitable...and the CWU, and, more importantly it would seem, the leadership of the CWU are just going to have to accept it. And if not "all of it" then certainly some of it. Sadly, change is not only inevitable...but an immutable fact of life. And therein does lie a contradiction of terms! Lol. :)

My very best regards, OliGarch - cheers! P.s If Dave Ward was not so strongly pro re-nationalisation this might also help matters.

I think you have pretty well summed it all up there, EMMJANE, as far as your possible investment is concerned; and yes you are quite right I believe, I also think you have more than a fair chance of getting back in under £1.40. Best of luck! Cheers.