Member Info for Scampthedog

You are correct about Ktetinsky searching out value stocks...with time on his hands, compliments of the lockdown, it was reported he had spent some considerable time doing just that.

I hope to Christ the Kretinsky intrigue is not in connection with some sort of anticipated corporate raid on the pension fund?

You would have to be certifiably insane to endorse that!

Every single RMG employee, regardless of grade, would be out on strike.

The bonus payment is for all RMG employees; people directly employed by RMG...therefore does not include agency workers. The pro rata rate is just that: if you have worked your every working day over the two month period you will get the full amount...if not, you lose approx £4.50 a day for every day you did not work during the agreed two month period.

For example: you self-isolated for two weeks -- you lose £45.00; you took unpaid leave -- the amount, per each day, deducted again; you decided to book paid leave during that time -- again the amount, pro rata, deducted.

The only exception, I would think myself, would be leave that was booked before the lockdown was imposed.

Seems straightforward to me.

The thing to hold in your mind at the moment, tonysilverman, is the Kretinsky factor; in fact, I find it hard to understand why this board is showing almost zero interest in his continuing buying...really I do.

As for your comment: "I can't see them voting 4 strike its like turkeys voting for Christmas." (?)
Sorry to have to disappoint you on this one, but the posties have already voted to strike...and that was several months ago.

Both sides will have to make concessions of course if they want to reach a working solution, but if the posties don't get some of that which they feel they are entitled to regarding former promises set out in the 4 Pillars Agreement then there is very definitely going to be a series of strikes...and thats regardless of the turkey analogy.

Obviously this would, to every ones great detriment, cause a massive slump in the s.p...something that RMG might take many years to recover from.

What I find most interesting with this stock, at this moment, is the Kretinsky factor...as I expounded on several days ago.

This guy does not do things on a whim or for no particular specific reason.

Could there be the real possibility of GLS being put up for sale?

Kretinsky must at least believe he is getting "fair value" when buying in at these prices.

The only comment he has to make is: "£5.50 in 2020".

He has 7 months and 9 days left to achieve his target price.

And I will be counting.

Well, after starting the ball rolling last night, some really excellent posts over the last 24 hours -- many thanks to all who posted...and that also applies to all the contrary views.

The best comments in my opinion were, Arsenal's: "Oli RMG have a terrible record for sickness" -- excellent post!

And, 200iq's: "I totally disagree. I know some people who have regular sick absence, sometimes several weeks at a time, sometimes a couple of days a week for several weeks. Some who regularly do an hour then sign out. At least 40 people in my mail centre are on covid related sick ever though they don't have symptoms and are still getting paid. It's the same faces over and over but for some reason they get away with it. The rules might be there but they aren't applied". (reprinted in full here for the benefit of all)

Perfectly encapsulated, 200iq.

Well done to both gentlemen concerned. Your comments sum up the problems perfectly.

I work with a postie whose wife works as a head nurse in a covid infection ward.

Every night he tells me of the things she has related to him that day. It is truly horrendous. In fact so horrendous I will not repeat any of it here out of respect for both the nurses (whether working with covid infected victims or not) and those now deceased.

Suffice to say that the risks they have all taken, and are still taking, is absolutely frightening!!

I will tell you this much though. In her own words: "I have been a nurse for 36 years...and in all that time I have never known anything as awful as this".

She goes to work exhausted...and cries all the way back home. My mate should know. He picks her up every morning.

Heroes and Heroines!!! And you can bet your life on that one, matey.

"The current RM malingerers are rank amateurs at malingering compared to them.
In the 70's it was entire workforces that were taking the ****, at RM now we're talking maybe 2-3 % of the workforce".

2-3%? Well if its any indication, mike, it certainly was not 2-3% during the height of this pandemic. R.M workers had a higher "absence-through-sickness" rate than the NHS!!

And I very much doubt if the "take a day off here and there" - - "the odd week or two now-and-again" brigade are actually only at 2-3% of the total workforce.

I would dispute that very much indeed.

A continuing embarrassment and huge millstone around the neck of Royal Mail to say the least.

And yet for all that...the downward trend still prevails. Needs to finish the week above 2.10 or its going to be all the way back down.

If it falls below 1.8 I might well (no pun intended) consider buying a few more. "Might" consider that is. But there again...probably not.

Not wishing to sound contentious, and at the risk of upsetting a few people, and not wanting to start a row...but here then is my five cents worth.

One of the major reasons that Royal Mail is in the mire is the lamentable work ethic of many of its employees. (oh God I can feel the imminent backlash already)

The biggest single group of malingers, is, without a doubt...the "old-stagers". By this, I mean the 45 -60 year old age group with plenty of service in. They are wily old dogs to a man. Yes, overall, middle-aged men are the worst offenders.

Where I work, there are at least 4 of them that could not put, collectively, more than 2 years active service on the table out of 4 years...and while on the "sick" still collecting full pay of course.

These malingerers use the excuse of being "sick" to give themselves extra days off as if it is their God-given right.

And their work ethic? Your joking? They simply have not got one!

From the extreme above to the more infrequent abusers of the system -- its a complete mess!

And accountability? Zero! And "why" you might ask? Because many of the managers are just that themselves -- lazy, disinterested loafers!! Who, by the way, take advantage of the system just like the rest of them.

Until Royal Mail is prepared to completely overhaul both the sick-pay policy and single-out the ones who consistently let the side down with their appalling attitude and dismal (is "dismal" a strong enough word?) approach to what they would consider "work" then this horse is simply just not going to run.

The cost of all this has now, finally, due to the massive amount of unjustified time during this pandemic that many employees have falsely taken off, been pushed into the full glare of centre stage. Its no longer a question of the unknown quantity that many financial commentators are not truly fully aware of. Pandora is now out of her box...and she is not going back in either - ever!

And if you want further proof of that last statement, look no further than the bonus payment that Royal Mail intends to pay its workforce: you only get the full amount for working throughout the full period of the lockdown. And do the malingerers consider that fair? You bet your sweet **** they don't!!

And if anyone thinks I am just whistling Dixie here then I personally could'nt give a tinkers toss.

This is all very interesting of course, MrNation. Errrr...but did I not mention this yesterday?

No idea...but if they do announce they are putting up GLS for sale, then -- whoosh!!!! Just sit back and watch that share price fly!!!!!

Expanding on the idea a little further: perhaps Back had been flirting with the idea for some time; perhaps he put it to the board that this was their possible "ace-in-the-hole" if things were to go pear-shaped, and that the sale of GLS was one way of: off-setting costs and keeping Royal Mail plc both solvent and on track with its "Five Year Plan"?

And taking it one step further: perhaps the board were so keen on the idea, that, to a man, they would have preferred the sale of GLS there and then? But the imminent sale of GLS, being Back's "baby", did not go down, at that exact moment, right there and then, too well with him?

Could this have caused the boardroom revolt? The reported coup?

Lots of possibilities to ponder here...however improbable.

Let us first assume that Rico Back is not in the slightest bit worried about his high average when it comes to what he has paid out for his Royal Mail shares. So let us ask: why would that be?

And let us also assume that Daniel Kretinsky is also unconcerned about the price he has paid to acquire the stock...even though some analysts are now predicting a resounding crash in the s.p all the way down to a pound -- or even less! Again: so why would that be?

Perhaps the answer is really quite simple...and staring us all right in the face?

"Royal Mail’s GLS spin-off likely after CEO’s departure but not without problems", says Berenberg.

Could it just be that Back always intended, at some point in the next couple of years, to sell off GLS? It would have made a lot of financial sense in the short term. Yes, it is the most profitable part of RMG at present. But there again, that being the case, just think how much cash this would raise to help towards Royal Mail's transformation costs in the UK. And think what it would do, in the short term, to the share price? It would literally double overnight!

And could it also be that the present board, sometime soon, still intends to go ahead with this plan?

And could it be that the shrewd and calculating Kretinsky has known this all along?

Something to consider perhaps?

I would be happy if we could just end the day at 2.10 myself. And even happier if, by the end of the week, we are sitting at a minimum of 2.30 or above.

Very difficult this one, Tony. I also work for Royal Mail (I work in a very busy crossing-docking operation) and I freely confess I got it all wrong concerning any profit that was going to be made throughout the height of this pandemic.

Trust me when I tell you the volumes have been astronomical (regarding parcels that is) over the last 6 or 7 weeks. In the words of several managers: "Christmas figures without the Christmas staffing levels". In other words: we have had almost zero agency working with us. Most of us, including me, are pretty well exhausted now.

I have to further add that: I was unaware, until very recently, just what an impact declining letters has on RMG'S profitability. Apparently, the massive upswing in parcel volumes does not equate to big profits due to the huge downturn in letters. This is very, very alarming for Royal Mail's mid to long term outlook.

If we are down 30% I believe on letter volumes, that equates, year on year (at a guess) to what the letter volumes will be during "normal" circumstances in about 6 or 7 years at the present rate of decline. That does not make for happy reading. It shows just how much more of the present parcels market RMG needs to capture to start making a really noticeable increase in profits.

As for Rico Back and his share purchases? Totally understandable! After all, not only was he the chief architect of the "Five Year Plan" but he would also have had complete confidence in it actually working and achieving its desired targets. No. No great mystery here.

Daniel Kretinsky though is a different kettle of fish altogether. Very hard to accept that it is simply just a case of: he completely misunderstands the present situation and bought in on a mere whim. I, for one, cannot accept that in the slightest.

And as for your investment? I would say you are very well placed as it is. Even if you buy in again at the present time and then the s.p should fall as low as one pound it is hardly a disaster is it?

Just two things I would caution about:-
1. This is a long term stock...at least another 5 years to see a decent return in my opinion.
2. I would hold off a while before buying anymore at the moment...the chart does look as if it is turning back downwards somewhat.

Hope this gives some food for thought. But all in all I would have to say, whatever you do, or whatever the s.p does in the near term, you are pretty well placed being where you are.

I agree It is all very intriguing, jiddy, concerning the Kretinsky investment. Most interesting is: why buy now if the s.p is going to fall back down into the 1.20s? Or even at risk of being lower than that according to some analysts.

Kretinsky is both intelligent and savvy. One would assume a man like this would be well informed. Not one who makes rash decisions or is foolish enough to invest into a stock at the wrong time or misjudge their entry point. After all, in life...timing is everything.

So the biggest question for me is: why did Kretinsky buy into Royal Mail at 1.58? Why not buy in when the stock crashed right down to 1.18?

Just like yourself, jiddy...I find it most compelling indeed.

I agree with OliGarch on this one, jiddy...I am both a postie and a shareholder and I am now questioning my sanity having invested here over the last couple of years. Like OliGarch said -- you are certainly brave!

Especially brave I would say after reading the article attached to the link you provided...it really was compulsive reading. Thanks for that -- much appreciated!

I found several bits of reporting most intriguing indeed. Such as: 1; "Removed in a boardroom coup", 2; "While the sacking has caught many by surprise, it is the result of RMG’s prolonged failure to implement the draconian new working practices—of the kind associated with rivals like Amazon—demanded by the company’s shareholders", 3; "Back could not ram through a £1.8 billion modernisation programme designed to shift the company’s focus towards delivering parcels", 4; "Back was also unable to do away with the Universal Service Obligation", 5; "Back’s sacking has been met with understandable satisfaction by postal workers. However, it would be a fatal mistake to believe that RMG will halt its planned attacks on pay and working conditions", 6; "New CEO Keith Williams has been chosen by RMG’s board for precisely the same purpose as Back", 7; "Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, who bought a 5 percent stake in the company early this month to become its fourth largest shareholder, has increased his position. He and his fellow oligarchs have seen this one before—anticipating that management and the union have got their act together and are preparing a profitable assault on workers’ conditions", 8; "Back’s departure does not mark an end to the struggle at Royal Mail, but the beginning of a new offensive of which the CWU’s “discussions” form a crucial, dangerous part".

Just about encapsulates it all very nicely if I do say so myself.

Of most interesting is: who, at board level, led the coup against Back? Obviously, as I said yesterday, the major shareholders lent on the board...but which member of the board brought it to Backs attention? Or was there no coup and did Back just leave at these major shareholders behest?

A good find that article, jiddy...and just as I commented earlier this morning: it will be more of the same for the good ship HMS R.M.

ICEBERG AHEAD, CAP'N!!!!

The analysts and market makers are going to have a field day with this one.

A 2.2 airifle and a tin of tipped pellets come to mind, NICODEMUS63 -- Thwack!!! Right in the rump -- Arghhhh!!!

You know, you lads come up with some good stuff -- love the positivity!

Not so sure about all the outlandish s.p claims.

But hell! Better positive then downcast I suppose.