Member Info for Scampthedog

Not sure percentage wise, MrNation...but it has been explained to me that it is the "biggest" part of their profit; actually I am quite sure I have been told several times "most of their profit".

However, under present circumstance that is, not sure that this will hold true at this very moment in time.

Sorry. I meant to say: they owe us the cost of delivering 4 tonnes.

I have always been under the impression it is done by tonnage...well, as far as the Christmas period goes that is.

For example: Chicago sends us 25 tonnes on one flight -- we send them 21. Therefore we owe them the cost of delivering 4 tonnes.

Or maybe that just b0ll0cks. There again it does sound kind of logical. Anyway that is how it was explained to me.

Just to be more precise then. A change of tack means just that -- a change of direction...a sharp change of direction actually. By a change in tact I am implying a little more skill, sensitivity and subtlety when negotiating or dealing with difficult situations.

What you actually mean to say is that I should have wrote "no change in direction or a little more better employed tact coming from the top at present time it would seem". Or some sort of words to that effect.

Happy now?

You really do need to get a life, jiddy123. Might I suggest train spotting?

Just listened to it...does not sound encouraging.

Ward himself sounds slightly sceptical and downbeat about it all.

Looks like "as we were" to me. No change in tact or direction coming from the top at the present time it would seem.

Trouble coming I would say.

I would hang fire for a while myself...buying in now might severely dent your average.

Is this the big selloff?

If so...then all the way back down to £1.60.

This is not looking good.

The Shorts are professionals...they are not prone to making too many mistakes.

If there had been no increase in the short position today I would have said the increase in s.p might have been down, as you yourself pointed out, to most of the Shorts reducing their exposure slightly. Not now though.

You do not get a stock shorted to this amount without those "in the know" being aware of something afoot.

I will be a Dutchman's mothers great uncle if they are wrong on this one.

Would not surprised to find out that Kretinsky has bought more stock myself.

I don't disagree with you, Carrington.

The only thing I would point out is, that I doubt very much if Kretinsky, or anyone else for that matter, could dump that many shares in one or two big selloffs and still get top dollar.

Certainly, he would have to sell off in tranches...would he not? Then the market being alerted to what he was doing would surely retrace rather speedily; and therefore he would in fact be chasing the price downwards.

Profit obviously -- and big profit to boot!...but still, not quite as much, I would suppose, as what many people might imagine. Would there not be taxes or some sort of capital gain involved here thus diminishing the profit made even further?

but what? Perhaps an RNS at the close of play announcing a really big buy?

Anybody buying at these prices could be stumbling into a really nasty elephant trap.

Someone either knows something or is up to something. Not for the faint of heart at these prices...not under present circumstance. I am referring here to the current short position.

When shares are loaned out, and after the borrower has paid the deposit and the shares have been transferred into their ownership (for want of the correct term) does this go down on the books as a sale...or is it a transfer that is actually unrecorded?

In other words: it follows on, in theory, that this transfer, at this time, means less shares, in the immediate short term at least, available to buy on the open market.

The reason I ask all this is quite simple. Does this transfer of stock have an immediate effect on the share price -- driving it upwards? Unless of course the Shorters sell immediately.

Just rather curious about it all.

I could hope for more myself concerning your statement: "I hope MR nation is right. It'd be hilarious if the shorts get burned on something like Royal Mail LMAO".

That aside, one interesting point about the short position:-

Adelphi Capital...2.02%
BlackRock Investment Management...3.44%
Egerton Capital (UK)...0.68%
Lucerne Capital Management...0.54%
Marshall Wace LLP...0.62%
Pictet Asset Management S.A...0.80%
Total 8.10%

Taking a look, one can clearly see that if the two with the largest short positions, Adelphi and BlackRock, reduced down to the average holdings of the other four short positions (0.66%) then the total combined holding would actually only be 3.96%.

Most obviously -- a huge decrease. I would say that, especially, BlackRock are taking a big risk here. Time will tell.

As for any June statement by RMG...I can only guess at the figures; volumes are dropping off noticeably now, but door to door is slowly picking up and there has been a marked increase in the economy mail. Personally, I do not think the figures will be much of anything...so, so I would have thought...but then I am probably going to be wrong.

Like I said previously...there is light at the end of the tunnel.

But let us all hope kretinsky does not start flogging off his shares. Because if he does -- this stock will become a shorters paradise!!

You have just answered what was going to be my next question.

Taken from Royal Mail's website: "Annual Report and Financial Statements"...released 14 June 2019.

So I take it that this is what the Bears are loading up for then? An anticipated bad news update in a couple of weeks time on the 25th of this month.

Makes sense.

There just might be a little twist to all of this though...hopefully.

Going back to Kretinsky, we will not have to wait much longer now to find out what he is all about...it is my contention, and always was, that he is long here. He has positioned himself beautifully. If the figures are better than expected the share price will undoubtedly move upwards a little; and that will be despite what the Shorts attempt to do. If the figures are pretty awful (doubt it myself) then he will be in an ideal position to mop up as many cheap shares as he thinks prudent. As I have mentioned before -- he cannot lose.

The Bears might just find out, to their cost, that unlike the end of years figures badly impacted by the initial onset of the covidvirus, and thus the need for RMG to purchase, at an inflated premium, huge amounts of sanitizer, gloves, masks, cleaning equipment and so on and so forth, and also the greatly added expense of thousands of employees sick-pay and therefore the hiring of extra agency, that this time around, over the last several weeks at any rate, things have not been quite as costly.

Royal Mail is now stockpiling, in every depot, all the above essentials and many other things as well; especially items like toilet rolls and disposable paper towels...they do not intend to get caught napping twice.

If there is indeed a "next time" Royal Mail will be far better positioned to take full advantage of any covid disruption.

The Shorts are playing with fire here. Get a deal with the union secured...and things will start to move pretty fast - upwards!

The time of the Bear is coming to an end. Soon -- a bright new dawn!!

Well thats plain enough -- thanks for the info! Looks like a bit of a standoff at the moment then...regarding the s.p that is.

When shorting a stock: how long do you have before you have to return the shares you have borrowed?

I don't know how everybody else feels about it...but I am a lot happier with the state of play at the moment.

Feels like one is coming to the end of a long, dark tunnel...and urged on by that little pin-prick of light.

Automation is coming...albeit slowly; shorts have to close sometime...and quite frankly their game is getting a bit stale now; framework being put into place for talks with union and employer -- things are looking up!

A lot will depend on the Kretinsky factor...if he starts dumping big tranches of stock then the s.p will take a good old pummelling.

Mind you, personally, I am not overly bothered about that either...just means more for me when bought through the partnership scheme.

Night all! Duty calls. P.s The darkest hour is the one just before the dawn.

zzzz...zzzz...zzzz...

Think, myself, you have just about summed it all up rather nicely.

Being the chump that I am I fail to see what significance this RNS should have on the share price...all rather mystifying to me to be honest.