Member Info for Scampthedog

from the sidelines over the last 12 months or so the only thing that really surprised me was the determination among all of the many commentators here to vote in favour of keeping the present board when they had the perfect opportunity to get rid of the whole lot of them.

Seems like the old ailing knackered goose has decided to bury itself instead.

Sub 1p tomorrow. Barring an unexpected miracle of course.

Feel very sorry for all you genuine long-term holders here...you have all been deliberately misled by various people.

I am nursing a small lose myself...but no where near what many of you lads are suffering.

But I always did regard it as just a punt. But a punt that may still come good!

Lets us all hope so...if not just for the sake of natural justice and reward.

your rhetoric is somewhat lopsided towards the negative...but the sentiment expressed is certainly clearly that also of many other posties that is for sure.

Regarding the revisions. There will be a massive upheaval in every aspect at RMG whether it be sorting, transport or delivery...the eventual coming online of all the new parcel Hubs will see to that...its inevitable.

Incidentally, those new parcel sorting machines going into the new Hubs (when they all finally constructed and installed...which will include one outside London and one up in the Yorkshire area...or so I am led to believe) will not quite be the "be-all-and-end-all" of all machines...not as so many people seem to think they won't. They are in fact extremely labour intensive. It will take approximately 170 people to operate each machine. The logistics of it are truly staggering!

Those 170 people per shift (times three shifts) equates to over 500 people per day being rammed into those new Hubs when fully operational; just making provision for lockers -- hangers for coats and other garments -- the canteen facilities, will be a big enough problem but when 170 people are turning up for a shift, and there are still 170 inside the building still doing theirs, they are going to have an even bigger one. They will need to have a mighty big car-park to accommodate all those vehicles...and I know for sure the new Hub at Warrington does not have such an adequate car-park: lots of friction to come here without a doubt.

The real truth is, that the operation in itself (Warrington Hub) will be all rather daunting when it comes time to get it underway...was to be April 2022...now put back to June or July.

It will take at least half a dozen "Shunters" to move the trailers on and off the bays; dozens of people tipping nested Yorks...and some then putting them together with the sleeves put in place; people to replace the filled Yorks (there are several hundred shoots coming off each machine) and wheel the filled Yorks to their respective avenues...and then more people to load those Yorks onto the waiting trailers.

And the biggest problems? Storage for all the nested Yorks being tipped from the trailers and all the Yorks of mail from arriving trailers that need to be processed.

And why do they have these problems?

Because quite simply -- the building is not big enough!!

Yes, Royal Mail has shot itself in the foot again.

Daventry Hub might be big enough...for the time being that is. But not Warrington.

They are all panicking right now. And that also is about right for RMG.

A massive, massive logistical problem coming there. And it will take the wisdom of Solomon to figure it all out.

A final note regarding the labour intensity. Those machines are not fully automated sorting machines...far from it. They should more correctly be called semi-automated machines. Its strength lies in its purposely constructed speedily delivered conformity.

Scampthedog Enterprises issued a rare "Gold-Standard" "buy-as-many-as-you-can-lay-your-hands on" upgrade today in line with its former strong buy recommendation from several weeks ago.

Citing increasing strong demand driven by (whilst not ignoring the lingering threat of a returning covid wave...which would, undoubtedly, still further increase opportunities for even greater volumes of traffic) the publics ever increasing awareness of the convenience of ordering online (the now many freely available points of collection, delivery slots and home pick-up available to them (which in its self further increases the online convenience factor for the customer) the much respected analysts strongly believe that Royal Mail, is, at last, a newly reinvigorated and far more efficient company and stands to greatly profit by what is almost universally accepted as a constantly increasing expectation, by the greater populace in large, for more speedy and efficient delivery when fulfilling their growing and burgeoning demands. No one is better placed and more readily equipped, they so believe, to accomplish this than RMG.

"We would also point out, says Mr Scampthedog (senior analyst) that Royal Mail has the best network in the UK...couple this with the strong priority of having to drastically reduce their carbon footprint and inner city toll charges which in turn necessitates the need of increasing their electric fleet, plus also the re-embraced inclination to turn back to the rail track to transport much of their freight (the obvious advantages of using electric trains when fully utilizing the main west and east coast lines) only further endorses our Gold-Standard recommendation; one should not forget of course that upon opening and going fully operational both Warrington Rail Terminal and the Daventry Hub sit squarely on that main west coast line. This will afford a massive advantage to RMG over its nearest competitors in the coming years. A gap, we feel, that will be hard to close...if not impossible for the near future. All this and more bodes very favourably for Royal Mail in those aforementioned coming years. We strongly encourage all long term investors to confidently invest in this stock."

ENDS.

***********************************************************************************************

Broker upgrade for Royal Mail PLC.

Royal mail PLC received a boost to investor confidence this morning when an analyst at "Scampthedog Enterprises" slapped a hefty overweight upgrade on the Royal Mail share price. Commenting, the much respected analyst cited heavily increasing volumes over the next several weeks culminating in perhaps the busiest Christmas ever. "We believe peoples shopping habits, in varying degrees, have changed almost irrevocably...the general acceptance now that covid is going to be with us, and also remain a very real threat for all of us...as it constantly mutates and evolves, for at least another generation. With this in mind we have set a target price of £6.45 to reflect this now firmly established and, in the main, accepted "new reality".

******************************ENDS******************************.

Fishcakes and OliGarch.

Although I was aware beforehand of all of what you mentioned, Fishcakes, regarding the monthly acquisition of shares for the posties...I was more just musing about what the price, for buying such a large amount at any one time, would be in regards to a discounted price you might be able to obtain: can you negotiate a slightly lower price per share within a falling market.

Just a thought.

OliGarch, I have to say that I had never considered the idea that Royal Mail might be making money on the share scheme purchase every month...imagine the stink that would raise. Lol.

One other thing: the maximum you can contribute each month is indeed £100.00...but only if you are paid monthly; if you are paid weekly the maximum you can spend each month on the share purchase is £92.28.

Not sure how it works regarding such a large amount of shares when buying so many at one time.

Does a broker have to ring around several days in advance to see who will pledge the shares on the specific buy date? (15th)

Not even aware of actually how many posties actually buy them each month.

Just as a complete guesstimate (probably miles off in all fairness) I use a figure of one in four.

140, 000 (uk) divided by 4 = 35,000. Times that by £92.28 = £3,229,800.00 divide by say £4.20...and that equals 769 000 shares.

That's a lot of shares to find and buy in one lump. And it may well be considerably more.

Would a buyer receive this amount at a slightly discounted price? There again...perhaps not.

Thinking more about it, it would certainly explain why the share price always rises as we head into the 15th. If people have to be persuaded to part with their shares they would most certainly want above market value...especially if they thought they could be on the up.

for clarifying the point I raised about Short tracker.

What it comes down to is the very fact that trading in stocks is not for everyone...like, errr, Redceo...for instance.

He obviously is not best suited to deal with the requirements that one has to have, temperament wise, to dabble in buying and selling shares...therefore the childish outbursts, lack of self-control and frequent foolish and insulting remarks.

The poor lamb.

Short Tracker showing a fraction over 1%...thought it was higher than that. Has it moved down some? S.T only shows positions with anything over 1%...so may well see the stated position disappearing from their records soon.

As for the share price. Chart looks hopeful. Nice steady rise over the last five days.

What I find rather striking is that on most other occasions leading up to the postie's monthly share buy-in the share price rises as we approach the monthly buy-in date, and after the purchase...then very quickly retreats back down. Today would appear to be somewhat different. Very encouraging!

No, no, no!! Market-makers are well aware (because of the information they have at hand) where lots of stop losses are...if you have set it too high...then do not be surprised to wake up one morning to find it triggered. I have found that out to my own personal detriment.

I respect both your views of course (nims you make some valid points) but just how low would you propose the s.p might go? £3.75 perhaps? Apparently, this is next support should £4.00 support fail. Or do you think there is a risk of sub £3.00? Because if not then I would suggest, myself, that buying more at these levels cannot be a bad thing.

Even leaving it until after the 2nd quarterly figures are released in a months time might well be too late in my opinion.

What is needed here is a leap of faith. The market for parcels is not only growing at a fantastic rate...but will carry on growing year on year. Royal Mail is getting everything in place. Yes, it has some issues to fully resolve. But no one...and I mean nobody, can deliver mail like RMG...not in the UK they can't.

One other thing...the dividend. The next dividend is 20 pence a share made in two payments over 12 months. If you only own 4000 shares that will be £800.00. Times that by three short years and £2400.00...even at an average of £6.00 a share it is a nice incentive. Would give you another 400 shares -- and all for free! Thats another £3200.00 for nothing at say £8.00 a share.

And if the share price keeps dropping...so what?

The dividend will just get you more shares.

Worth considering.

But stop losses? "Rat poison squared" to quote (out of context) the greatest all time investor.

Start to load up on these shares...but do it both prudently and systematically...in other words don't be too greedy.

Parcel volumes are no where near as high as during the height of the pandemic...but in comparison to the present time of year, historically speaking...they are still a lot higher than average.

Don't forget the "Pressure Season" is nearly upon RMG...and it will come even earlier this year. Couple that with a shortage of HGV drivers, and the ports and cargo ship owners warning of daily mounting delays...then very soon...the early Christmas shopping rush will be on us like a pouncing tiger.

Christmas is coming a lot earlier than normal this year...very shortly RMG's pipeline is going to be more clogged up than a Calcutta slum sewer!

Watch the s.p then as the analysts become more and more aware over the next couple of months just how much RMG is going to rake in this Christmas.

That analyst at UBS must really be a complete idiot.

With the large carbon footprint of RMG (inner city toll charges) the freight trains RMG use being electric not diesel...a shortage of HGV drivers which will last for quite some time...and the rising cost of fuel...then we can all appreciate the advantages of the train.

Cheers!

Warrington has the best road transport access to reach all corners of the British Isles in the U.K: M6 (A49), M62, M56 -- and all right on its doorstep! Daventry, being situated near Birmingham and Wolverhampton, also speaks for itself: M42, M40.

As for why would using the railways help RMG...several reasons.

Using the rail track is, admittedly, more expensive than trailers...but a lot, lot more quicker. But how does that help RMG?

It helps for one most important reason (the very reason that has made Amazon's "Prime" the gargantuan beast that it is) -- speed! In todays internet world everything is to do with -- speed!

Allow me to elaborate. The companies that share the industrial site at Daventry with RMG have already commented how pleased they are that RMG is right there next to them...as one spokesperson said: "this allows us to pick the customers items later in the day...and still get the customers goods to them the very next day after. This is good for us -- and even better for the customer!"

And as for the extra cost? This will be more than offset by the very reason that you are moving items in greater bulk...and, as previously mentioned, at a far faster pace; an average RMG freight train (at present) pulling 8 brakes can shift approx 480 Yorks (they usually increase this to 12 brakes at Xmas: 720 Yorks)...this in comparison to a trailer which can carry anywhere from 95 to 110 Yorks depending on the type of trailer used and how it is loaded.

As for the "Network" at present...it was redesigned several months ago as most of you posties are well aware. When the Hubs open up next year it will obviously be upgraded once again to accommodate the flow of traffic in and out of the Hubs...the rail track will play a big part in all of this.

Oli, I met the CEO in the course of my daily duties. He is as exactly as you describe him. He is obviously both astute and intelligent...and a very decent chap as well I have to say. A good choice by the board.

"The fact that I am willing to assist in this is entirely my choice. Same with you spending a good deal of your free time here when you choose to do so."

Redceo. You post here several times a day...and have done so for several years. I, on the other hand, have not posted here, until today that is, for probably 6 months...or longer even.

In fact, I have not posted anywhere concerning anything for about the same time period.

you are most welcome.

As a postie (now on my 2nd term of employment with RMG) I, at the very least, am closer to the action than Redceo. I have also worked (briefly) for Amazon...and worked for Angard and City Link (now defunct!).

More experienced in the logistics of the mail game than Redceo I should say.

don't take any notice of Redceo...he just likes to feel important...he is harmless enough...likes people to think he knows of what he pertains to know of...which, concerning RMG...is very little.

I hope all you old-stagers took profit when it came along last time? But regarding RMG's future prospects? Looking good in the mid to longer term I should say.

Daniel Kretinsky still increasing his position through VESA...got to be a good thing for long term holders. Makes one wonder if he really is trying to acquire the company on the cheap. If he increases by another 4 or 5 percentage...well, could see the City get into a bit of a fizz...might start a stampede to get in...could shove the price right up. Certainly a serious consideration as of now when considering VESA's present investment. Nearly one fifth of the company!

As for latest developments...things are really coming together. Daventry Hub complete along with rail siding; incidentally, this not a shared siding (as I was first informed) it actually runs into (and sits alongside) the Daventry Hub itself...just like Warrington Rail Terminal's rail platform. The parcel sorting machine in Daventry is being constructed as we speak; Warrington Hub has had the completed machine installed for some months now...they are still trouble-shooting...both mechanically and data wise...will be fired-up sometime around this coming April I believe. As for the PSM at Daventry...I think that will be brought forward, operationally speaking...Christmas 2022 I should think.

Yes...things are looking up.

Just one last important thing to bear in mind. The present CEO of RMG has seen what many former CEO's of RMG failed to appreciate: he wants at least 20% of all the "Live" mail to be transported by train -- very well done, Simon! When one looks at the main west and east coast rail lines one can understand why. The main west coast line runs directly from the Glasgow RMG terminal - into Warrington - into Daventry - and into PRDC (London). From PRDC I think I am correct in saying it runs across to Kings Cross. This puts it onto the east coast main line. RMG has a rail terminal somewhere near Doncaster or Darlington...or somewhere in between. From here all the way up to Edinburgh...there the line splits: up to Inverness -- or back across to Glasgow. The perfect loop connecting not just south to north -- but west to east!

And how do I know all of this? Quite simple...the CEO told me himself.

Cheers!

Wow!! At the very least...you have a full set of swinging b@lls, man.

Why the derogatory comments about being a care home manager? Fail to see what is so amusing about that. Would have thought it was an honest enough and worthy calling. Just because there have been some high-profile cases of very badly run care homes does not imply they all are...most are very well run in fact.

People don't like STT because he has been consistently right...the s.p is testimony to that.

And what about that "Capital Reduction"? No mention of why that was undertaken. Intimations of it being used for a "possible" dividend pay out; and that has not been mentioned since either.

Going back to the real slide in the s.p takes you back to that very same thing: the capital reduction. Since then, in regard to the s.p, we have never looked back...back upwards that is.

Still waiting patiently for an explanation for that capital reduction...because it had to be done for some purpose; and that actual purpose never explained to us in the first place.

in the very near future.

Them indoors have been informed, after all CWU reps attended a national meeting last week (via video link), that the company is considering further reducing the working week by one hour in July and another hour in October to bring the present working week down to 36 hours.

The company is also going to be offering a 3 day (along with the present 4 days) working week.

Apparently things are being moved forward at an even greater pace than was first envisaged...Hubs will be operational perhaps at the end of this year.

I know for a fact that YDC is already trouble shooting their parcel sorting machine...Warrington is getting pretty close to that stage also.

The Hub building at Daventry is now built. Artists impressions of the rail yard are particularly impressive. Huge!

Local business that share this yard are quoted as saying: "having Royal Mail here is a big advantage for us...it will allow us to pick later in the day and still stay on schedule".

Keep the faith. The best times are yet to come.

P.s Hubs might be operational by October.

Stay safe!! Ta-ra.